Tour de France 2019

[Finn84]

Re:

The best designed stage is LPDBF imo

Makes me think since the mountain has been quite a regular part of the Tour recently, it has always been in the first half of the race (8, 10, 5 and 6). Probably could be worth of trying it later in the Tour as well,

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think you really improve the route with 2 small changes:
1. Make the TTT an ITT
2. Have stage 19 and 20 still start in the same towns, but stage 19 becomes the short Val Thorens MTF with the hard side of the Col de la Madeleine early on and stage 19 is the Tignes stage with the other side of the Col de la Madeleine early on, that would be a real queenstage with almost 5,300m of altitude gain.
My proposal for stage 19: https://www.cronoescalada.com/index.php/tracks/viewTour/547809/272730
Stage 20: https://www.cronoescalada.com/index.php/tracks/viewTour/546456/272731
Of course that wouldn't fix everything, but from a logistic standpoint it would be two minor changes and they could really improve the race.

 

[Robert5091]

Tour of Turkey - shortened queen stage, Tour of Romandie - shortened queen stage, Giro - shortened queen stage, seeing a pattern here?

If stage 18 gets problems, then it could be 3 stages less then 150 km that decide the TdF.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

The best designed stage is LPDBF imo

Agree. Spoiler alert! I'm working on the OP for this stage. And the more I study it, the more I like it...maybe a little short though. And what I like is the rhythm, starting with the easy side of the Grand Ballon via Le Markstein, then the HUndsruck from its best and seldom used side, not a monster, not long but steady. The Ballon d'Alsace, again, is steady, and from downhill you keep getting to the next climb. No rest on this stage, hardly any flat. Col des Croix, grainy roads to the final two climbs. It's a roller coaster. Forgotten in '12 and '17, the Col des Chevreres is vicious. In '14 it set the stage for a crazy final, with Purito exploding, Valverde suffering, Nibali-Pinot 1-2.

 

[Robert5091]

Spoiler alert! Stage 6 will be all about following the train and riders looking at each other - shame it's not in week 2 or 3.

 

[Tonton]

Spoiler alert! Stage 6 will be all about following the train and riders looking at each other - shame it's not in week 2 or 3.

I was going to mention you in my post, since you have contributed so much. Stage 6, I'll do it, if that's OK.

Train yes, but Chevreres is a little Sormano, that's when the train derails. If brave riders want to create havoc, the final will be nuts. It may not be Sky's demise, but many will explode. Great way to reshuffle the cards. There will be action.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

The best designed stage is LPDBF imo

Makes me think since the mountain has been quite a regular part of the Tour recently, it has always been in the first half of the race (8, 10, 5 and 6). Probably could be worth of trying it later in the Tour as well,

A final MTF on LPDBF would have the benefit of a slightly shorter transfer ahead of the Champs stage.

They could even do;
Monday; Rest day below the Alps
Tuesday, Wednesday; Alpine stages
Thursday; MTF Besancon - LPDBF
Friday; Long sprint stage from Epinal/Nancy area to around Reims.
Saturday; cobbled stage from around Reims to Arras/Amiens area
Sunday; Champs Elysees

A TT stage could fit in there if needed. Point being a week like that has gc potential, has cobbles late in the Tour instead of an early-stage afterthought, reduces long transfers for the riders, and also gives the sprinters and classics riders something else to stick around for than just Paris.

 

[Alexandre B.]

 

[Lequack]

Re:

It's confirmed Primoz Roglic is not doing the Tour, but Laurens de Plus is. Also Gesink is not riding as well as previously planned, replaced by Wout van Aert.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Great sprint train and TTT team. Not much support for Kruijswijk but he should not need a train anyway

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Great sprint train and TTT team. Not much support for Kruijswijk but he should not need a train anyway

George Bennet and Laurens de Plus are both very good in the mountains, I think Kruijswik should have ample support.

 

[spalco]

Re:

Cool team, lots of options if the GC doesn't work out too, I like it.

 

[Breh]

Yes, a very nice team!

 

[Singer01]

http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/

all the profiles are now out, not that they show anything particularly interesting that wasn't already known.

 

[Pantani_lives]

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

Four Stars for poels? Aren't you slightly overreacting. I mean I agree it's pretty hard to find anyone who I can see winning the race but poels surely isn't that big of a favorite

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

Four Stars for poels? Aren't you slightly overreacting. I mean I agree it's pretty hard to find anyone who I can see winning the race but poels surely isn't that big of a favorite

I wouldnt be surprised at all if he wins.

I know what you mean, but looking at the 3-star riders... Im inclined to agree with Pantani_lives. Considering the TTT and ITT in which Poels will probably do great in. Looked strong in Dauphine.

Maybe I would bump up Pinot and Uran at least one star though.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

Four Stars for poels? Aren't you slightly overreacting. I mean I agree it's pretty hard to find anyone who I can see winning the race but poels surely isn't that big of a favorite

My reaction was like this, but worse, thinking; "Surely you are trolling?"

Poels is still only third in line in his team. He is hardly likely to have the opportunity to ride for GC, which he might not have the potential to do well in anyway. We have seen him be as strong as the best climbers on one off stages, but is that only because he has dropped ten minutes on other stages, saving his energy? I wouldn't put him in the same category as Thomas pre 2018 Tour; as he had won Paris-Nice, and been sitting in fourth place deep into a previous Tour. Poels hasn't shown that level yet, to my knowledge. I would put him at two stars maximum, but each to their own.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

Sorry, but Poels 4 stars? And Bardet over Pinot, Yates and Uran?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

My current stars:

*****Bernal
****Thomas, Poels
***Fuglsang, Bardet, Quintana
**Landa, Buchmann, A. Yates, Van Garderen, Kruijswijk
*Nibali, Pinot, D. Martin, Uran, Porte, Mas

The Ineos is the limit. I hope this prediction will be terribly wrong and someone from another team wins. Thomas hasn't shown enough to be top favourite. Fuglsang has never finished higher than seventh, so it's weird to see him as a big favourite. Bardet and Quintana have finished second, but they looked doubtful in the Dauphiné. As always there will be a dispute over the leadership at Movistar. Buchmann was good in the one-week races, but has a lot to prove at GT level. Van Garderen seems to be back, but he might get a bad day again. Nibali and Pinot might just hunt for stages or the polka dots. None of the others look great at the moment.

Sorry, but Poels 4 stars? And Bardet over Pinot, Yates and Uran?

To be fair, I'd put bardet somewhere around there as well. Yates isn't that great of a gc rider at gt's and with the exception of his one off great tdf performance in 2017 Uran has been nowhere since the 2014 giro. Pinot I'd rank higher but again I can see why one would rate bardet over Pinot. The one I think is underrated on this list is Porte who hasn't looked good this season but at least we know his peak climbing shape is good enough to win the tour. Now it's questionable to say the least whether he will reach that peak shape but it should at least make him more than a one star favorite imo

 

[klintE]

Bardet is bad TT-er And AG2R is bad in TTT-ing too.
Last year top 5 in TDF were great TT-ers. Maybe course is more gracious for not TTing climbers this year but still he will lose time.
And there is no sign of striking form which could level him up.
Bardet best performance in TdF was 2016 where he tiook the 2nd place 4 mins after Froome. And that year he was 2nd in Dauphine (after Froome)

So putting him as high as Pantani Lives did is just a wishful thinking IMO

 

[Pantani_lives]

Four stars for Poels is a lot I admit, but I'm thinking of a scenario where Thomas fails. Poels might be as capable of replacing him as Bernal, with more experience. Of course it's possible that he has to sacrifice himself again, but if he's allowed to ride for himself he might end very high.

Am I overrating Bardet? Perhaps, but he's one of the most consistent riders in the mountains and there's only one ITT.

Richie Porte looked far from his best in the Dauphiné. If Pinot focuses on the GC he might do well; he looks in good shape.

 

[Valv.Piti]

These are my stars:

***** Bernal
**** Thomas
*** Fuglsang
** Pinot, Porte, Quintana, Landa, Buchmann
* Poels, Bardet, Yates, Kruiswijk, Mas, Dennis, Uran

 

[movingtarget]

Remains to be seen whether Porte and Quintana were giving it everything in the Dauphine. I don't see Poels as a threat and Fuglsang usually has a bad day or two. Bernal had no competition in the TDS. I still think the race is fairly open. Maybe not having Dumoulin and Froome in the race will make riders take more risks. It's a good year for top 10 GC riders to make the most of it with the weakened field.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

These are my stars:

***** Bernal
**** Thomas
*** Fuglsang
** Pinot, Porte, Quintana, Landa, Buchmann
* Poels, Bardet, Yates, Kruiswijk, Mas, Dennis, Uran

That looks reasonable, although I think Van Garderen deserves at least one star after his performance in the Dauphiné. I wonder if Nibali really isn't thinking about the GC at all. Fuglsang still has a lot to prove in the high mountains, but it's hard to say who else would deserve three stars based on what we've seen this year.