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Tour de France 2019

Page 18 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Re: Re:

Pantani_lives said:
Valv.Piti said:
These are my stars:

***** Bernal
**** Thomas
*** Fuglsang
** Pinot, Porte, Quintana, Landa, Buchmann
* Poels, Bardet, Yates, Kruiswijk, Mas, Dennis, Uran
That looks reasonable, although I think Van Garderen deserves at least one star after his performance in the Dauphiné. I wonder if Nibali really isn't thinking about the GC at all. Fuglsang still has a lot to prove in the high mountains, but it's hard to say who else would deserve three stars based on what we've seen this year.

There might be an argument for Pinot for 3 stars, but he's going to lose time in the TTT.
 
Apr 20, 2012
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Re:

Valv.Piti said:
These are my stars:

***** Bernal
**** Thomas
*** Fuglsang
** Pinot, Porte, Quintana, Landa, Buchmann
* Poels, Bardet, Yates, Kruiswijk, Mas, Dennis, Uran
Yates at two stars.
I see him as the fourth best aftter Ineos Duo and Fuglsang.
 
I'm getting excited about this Tour. Just so wide open. Belles Filles on stage 6, so no loitering around for the heads of state. Peyresourde and Hourquette d'Ancizan into the ITT, into a mark-it-on-your-calendars Soulor-Tourmalet finish, into an unassuming but perhaps not uneventful stage 15. A stage that promises nothing, but where those who started came in too hot will feel the inescapable burn of the sunshine hitting the asphalt day after day after day. And then the home stretch. Izoard and Galibier to get us warmed up. Then 120km full-gas to Tignes. Followed by 130km that should get us just as quickly to Val Thorens. Not monstrous, not show-stopping. But just tough enough that it could go any way. An empty canvas.

Where I can see Landa gaining at the start and holding on at the end, like Froome in 2015, with Pinot playing the Quintana role while -this would be too rich- Quintana himself plays the Poels role. Or I can see Quintana make it all three GTs won on "unexpected" 50-mile forays. I can just as easily see Uran or Kruisjwijk or Porte break through, one finish at a time, one time trial at a time, as Thomas did last year. Or maybe, *just* maybe, we could witness the dawn of the age of Egan.

So since the zeitgeist seems to favor star ratings, I'll go with:

The out of respect honorable mentions: Nibali, Zakarin

The I don't see it yet (or ever) honorable mentions: Mas, Buchmann, Dennis, Poels, Gaudu, (TJ)

*The guy(s) who have a Giro in their legs but could somehow catch lighting: Landa (Chaves, Mollema, Majka and Zakarin -if they're even going-)

*˙The guys who could have a tough time surviving the whole route but maybe not: Pinot, Martin, Yates, Porte, Fuglsang

**The guys who haven't had a good warm up so far are definitely capable of putting it together: Bardet, Uran, Kruisjwijk, Thomas

**˙The guy who can likely challenge anyone for the win if he can bid his time but will likely blow himself up before then because he wants it too much: Quintana

***The guy who -might- just need to avoid mistakes for three weeks but even then that's a huge ask for a 22-year old: Bernal
 
My assessment of the favorites to win the Tour (not based on pure strength/form alone, Bernal & Poels expected to slave for Thomas, hence their ratings)

***** Thomas
**** Fuglsang, Bernal
*** Pinot, Kruijswijk, Adam Yates
** Bardet, Quintana, Dan Martin, Poels
* Porte, Mas, Uran, Landa, Buchmann, Van Garderen

If Thomas cracks, Bernal will be the one to beat.
 
***** (none)
**** Quintana, Yates, Thomas
*** Pinot, Landa, Kruijswijk, Bernal, Fulsang
** Porte, Dumoulin, Martin, Bardet, Uran, Mas
* Nibali, Buchmann, Dennis, Poels

Bernal has known potential but, like it seems, he already peaked and I'm not sure if he can sustain this trough 3 weeks. Without previous experience as a GT leader.
 
***** - None
**** - Thomas, Bernal
*** - Fuglsang
** - Quintana, Yates, Porte, Pinot
* - Bardet, Kruijswijk, Landa, Uran

Still much to ride for as I think there's an outside chance that an unstarred rider can contend and a much better chance of one making the podium.

Ineos is strong but I think they only have a 50-50 chance of winning the yellow jersey this year. Should be a good race.
 
Re: Re:

klintE said:
Lequack said:
When has an Ineos/Sky rider ever faded in the GT?
But the question is if Bernal is The Chosen One? Is he?
If Bernal is stronger and Thomas is clearly fading they won't sabotage Bernal. They didn't sabotage Thomas in a similar spot last year.

Sky learned from their mistakes from 2012, they got lucky that Wiggins didn't crack and gift the Tour to Nibali that year. Sabotaging Froome actually accomplished nothing (except a few bruised egos, their spouses included).
 
Re: Re:

DanielSong39 said:
klintE said:
Lequack said:
When has an Ineos/Sky rider ever faded in the GT?
But the question is if Bernal is The Chosen One? Is he?
If Bernal is stronger and Thomas is clearly fading they won't sabotage Bernal. They didn't sabotage Thomas in a similar spot last year.

Sky learned from their mistakes from 2012, they got lucky that Wiggins didn't crack and gift the Tour to Nibali that year. Sabotaging Froome actually accomplished nothing (except a few bruised egos, their spouses included).
Who sabotaged Froome? Wiggins was never in danger, except when his own teammate attacked him, just because he thought he can!
 
Re:

Cookster15 said:
Fuglsang ranked too high. His best finish in a Grand Tour was 7th in the 2013 TdF. He was 28 then. He's 34 now. One star.
Lol.

I forget him being a more dominant rider back in the spring of 2013 than this year, but he must have been because he had the right theoretical age back then.
 
Re: Re:

Blanco said:
DanielSong39 said:
klintE said:
Lequack said:
When has an Ineos/Sky rider ever faded in the GT?
But the question is if Bernal is The Chosen One? Is he?
If Bernal is stronger and Thomas is clearly fading they won't sabotage Bernal. They didn't sabotage Thomas in a similar spot last year.

Sky learned from their mistakes from 2012, they got lucky that Wiggins didn't crack and gift the Tour to Nibali that year. Sabotaging Froome actually accomplished nothing (except a few bruised egos, their spouses included).
Who sabotaged Froome? Wiggins was never in danger, except when his own teammate attacked him, just because he thought he can!
Froome attacked to weaken Nibali who was threatening Wiggins.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Cookster15 said:
Fuglsang ranked too high. His best finish in a Grand Tour was 7th in the 2013 TdF. He was 28 then. He's 34 now. One star.
Lol.

I forget him being a more dominant rider back in the spring of 2013 than this year, but he must have been because he had the right theoretical age back then.
With all due respect to Fuglsang, i'd also tend to look at the past 10 years of GT classifications history as a reference for a 34 year old rider, rather than him being in great shape in the classics and Dauphiné this year. He raced 12 GT's, finished 11 of those and only once cracked the top 10 (with a 7th place). I have nothing against the guy, but if he really has the innate talent to be a real contender, wouldn't it have remotely happened once in 10 years?

Personally, i'm not seeing it with Fuglsang either. Not because of his age, but because there is nothing in his past that suggests that he'll now suddenly be able to rock a GT. Winning LBL doesn't change that for me. But ofcourse, Dumoulin out, Froome out, Roglic out, that's already 3 places higher up the ladder. But i really can't see him being in the mix for top spot or even podium.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Cookster15 said:
Fuglsang ranked too high. His best finish in a Grand Tour was 7th in the 2013 TdF. He was 28 then. He's 34 now. One star.
Lol.

I forget him being a more dominant rider back in the spring of 2013 than this year, but he must have been because he had the right theoretical age back then.
With all due respect to Fuglsang, i'd also tend to look at the past 10 years of GT classifications history as a reference for a 34 year old rider, rather than him being in great shape in the classics and Dauphiné this year. He raced 12 GT's, finished 11 of those and only once cracked the top 10 (with a 7th place). I have nothing against the guy, but if he really has the innate talent to be a real contender, wouldn't it have remotely happened once in 10 years?

Personally, i'm not seeing it with Fuglsang either. Not because of his age, but because there is nothing in his past that suggests that he'll now suddenly be able to rock a GT. Winning LBL doesn't change that for me. But ofcourse, Dumoulin out, Froome out, Roglic out, that's already 3 places higher up the ladder. But i really can't see him being in the mix for top spot or even podium.
I tend to agree. He is a better classics rider and the short stage races suit him more. Top five at best I think with the form he has been in.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Cookster15 said:
Fuglsang ranked too high. His best finish in a Grand Tour was 7th in the 2013 TdF. He was 28 then. He's 34 now. One star.
Lol.

I forget him being a more dominant rider back in the spring of 2013 than this year, but he must have been because he had the right theoretical age back then.
With all due respect to Fuglsang, i'd also tend to look at the past 10 years of GT classifications history as a reference for a 34 year old rider, rather than him being in great shape in the classics and Dauphiné this year. He raced 12 GT's, finished 11 of those and only once cracked the top 10 (with a 7th place). I have nothing against the guy, but if he really has the innate talent to be a real contender, wouldn't it have remotely happened once in 10 years?

Personally, i'm not seeing it with Fuglsang either. Not because of his age, but because there is nothing in his past that suggests that he'll now suddenly be able to rock a GT. Winning LBL doesn't change that for me. But ofcourse, Dumoulin out, Froome out, Roglic out, that's already 3 places higher up the ladder. But i really can't see him being in the mix for top spot or even podium.
Yeah, I tend to agree but there wasn't anything to suggest he could do what he's done this spring either. And it's not just the LBL win - he's been really good in every race he's done. That said, how long can he hold this form?
 
Re: Re:

DanielSong39 said:
Blanco said:
DanielSong39 said:
klintE said:
Lequack said:
When has an Ineos/Sky rider ever faded in the GT?
But the question is if Bernal is The Chosen One? Is he?
If Bernal is stronger and Thomas is clearly fading they won't sabotage Bernal. They didn't sabotage Thomas in a similar spot last year.

Sky learned from their mistakes from 2012, they got lucky that Wiggins didn't crack and gift the Tour to Nibali that year. Sabotaging Froome actually accomplished nothing (except a few bruised egos, their spouses included).
Who sabotaged Froome? Wiggins was never in danger, except when his own teammate attacked him, just because he thought he can!
Froome attacked to weaken Nibali who was threatening Wiggins.
And how exactly he would've weaken Nibali with that attack?! That was just Froome's way to show that he's stronger then Wiggins, his way to humiliate him.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Cookster15 said:
Fuglsang ranked too high. His best finish in a Grand Tour was 7th in the 2013 TdF. He was 28 then. He's 34 now. One star.
Lol.

I forget him being a more dominant rider back in the spring of 2013 than this year, but he must have been because he had the right theoretical age back then.
With all due respect to Fuglsang, i'd also tend to look at the past 10 years of GT classifications history as a reference for a 34 year old rider, rather than him being in great shape in the classics and Dauphiné this year. He raced 12 GT's, finished 11 of those and only once cracked the top 10 (with a 7th place). I have nothing against the guy, but if he really has the innate talent to be a real contender, wouldn't it have remotely happened once in 10 years?

Personally, i'm not seeing it with Fuglsang either. Not because of his age, but because there is nothing in his past that suggests that he'll now suddenly be able to rock a GT. Winning LBL doesn't change that for me. But ofcourse, Dumoulin out, Froome out, Roglic out, that's already 3 places higher up the ladder. But i really can't see him being in the mix for top spot or even podium.
He didn't just won Liege, he's a rider of the year so far!
Thomas also didn't had much history in GT's, yet he won the Tour. Carapaz won the Giro. Stranger things happened... I consider him as one of the main favorites.
 
The more I look at the mountain stages the more I hate them. Val Thorens is just a much easier version of the Sierra Nevada stage of the 2017 Vuelta and GC wise that was a dud. Col de l'Iseran will be hit with a full peloton, and it's only borderline HC with a few false flat kilometers spread out, then there's the fact that the descent is so shallow a larger group has a huge advantage. Galibier south is horrendous, with only the final km being a half decent place to attack.
 

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