Tour de France 2019

[Robert5091]

Summer is on it's way - could be a shock to the system!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48742241

France is braced for a heatwave with temperatures forecast to exceed 40C this week – potentially breaking the record for June.

Temperatures are expected to reach 35 degrees or more on Monday, and climb even further until the peak on Thursday and Friday.

The north of the country – including Paris - will be worst affected.
...
A weather system over the Atlantic is creating high atmospheric pressure over the region, drawing up hot air from northern Africa and Spain, raising temperatures.

In Spain, weather agency Aemet is predicting temperatures of above 35C in large parts of the country, and above 40C in the centre - and 42C in the valleys of Ebro, Tajo, Guadiana and Guadalquivir. Holidaymakers in Mallorca or the Canary Islands can also expect 35C temperatures.

Germany is also predicting temperatures in the mid-30s in Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and other cities – with a forecast 38C for the capital by Thursday.

 

[staubsauger]

Yeah, whoever booked an expensive vacation in Spain better cheaply could've gone to Scheveningen / The Hague for a sunny summer holiday!

 

[HelloDolly]

I am not convinced Tour de Suisse was so so weak a field in comparison to Dauphine as everyone is pushing on here so I compared the two (in my own way)

1. Fuglsang v Bernal
2. Van Gardeen v Dennis
3. Buchman V Konrad
4. Poels v Benoot
5. Pinot V Hirt
6.Tuens v Spilak
7. Lutsenko V Pozzo
8. D Martin V Betencur
9 Quintana V Mas
10 Bardet V Roche

Outside top 10
Porte, Barguil, G Martin V Soler, Aru, Henao


Of course form has a lot to do with it but with exception of places 5 & 10 ,maybe 9 (8 ?) I don't see the Dauphine as miles stronger
I think Bernal was strongest of the lot but Dennis was not far behind
Obviously some of the riders in Swiss will not be at the Tour and some are not really 3 week racers
And of course the possible top 4 riders at the Tour didn t finish either race
Steven Kruijswijk, Geraint Thomas, Adam Yates (and Rigoberto Uran elsewhere)

So I dont think the Swiss field as so weak after all and certainly worth looking at for top 10 places and even the winner !!!

 

[Red Rick]

Suisse was okay. Dauphine was clearly a little better if you look at the GC before the final stage.

Suisse may definitely look better in hindsight if it turns out Dennis can top 5 GTs.

But with top GT riders generally moving away a little bit from the shorter stage races, many of those fields look a little deflated compared to the GT fields. But then, this Tour field doesn't look special either.

 

[staubsauger]

Tour of Switzerland in fact only missed 1-2 big guns that instead chose to spin around in France kinda out of shape. I surely believe that Bardet, Quintana & Kruijswijk would've had a hard time cracking the top 10 in Switzerland. At least with the climbing level they showed at the Dauphine. Really only Fuglsang & Pinot showed good condition. Everyone else has quite a lot to improve until July. Poels went well as well of course.

So apart from these big names that currently wouldn't have added that much quality to the race with their bad condition, this more or less was a classic TdS field. Kid Bernal & Dennis that prove themselves in a big Tour for the first time. Helpers / Climbers like Pozzo, Hirt & Konrad close to their peak, riding for their own goals once. A puncher like Benoot who confirms he's able to bring along decent climbing for a 9 days race. Except Bernal the :Tour of Switzerland was probably the main season goal for most riders that made the top 5. Hence why their level was quite high actually.

We will find out only in July to be honest. There hasn't been one proper mountain stage like the Sankt Gotthard & Furkahorn ones at the Dauphine, either. So we can't even compare numbers really. Because like I already said it might absolutely be that someone like Bardet would've witnessed a complete meltdown on yesterday's Tour of Switzerland stage with the poor condition he showed in France.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

The more I look at the mountain stages the more I hate them. Val Thorens is just a much easier version of the Sierra Nevada stage of the 2017 Vuelta and GC wise that was a dud. Col de l'Iseran will be hit with a full peloton, and it's only borderline HC with a few false flat kilometers spread out, then there's the fact that the descent is so shallow a larger group has a huge advantage. Galibier south is horrendous, with only the final km being a half decent place to attack.

They are all harder than what you are saying. Will be carnage way a the bottom of the climb. It reminds me of Stage 17 of the 2015 Tour but harder. Galibier is easier I get it. But it will be tackled after a long day and after 2 previous hard mountains. That would be enough. The length of the climb and the stage could be a killer for the riders. Comparing Val Thorens to Sierra Nevada is Ok but then you have to add the 2 previous mountains as well. La Vuelta usually put mono climbs or easy run ins into the last climb.

I really hope that they are good. I am still frustrated with what happened in the Giro with all the hype.

 

[Red Rick]

It's shallow climbs. They'll just do a negative split and anyone who attacks must solo the entire climb at a huge disadvantage while Sky keep their numbers together. They'll just let Rowe do the pacing all the way until the foot of l'Iseran and Val Thorens

 

[roundabout]

Re:

It's shallow climbs. They'll just do a negative split and anyone who attacks must solo the entire climb at a huge disadvantage while Sky keep their numbers together. They'll just let Rowe do the pacing all the way until the foot of l'Iseran and Val Thorens

Iseran stage - I can see that. Val Thorens - with 25 more or less difficult climbing kms before - no, because they would not be able to control the stage.

 

[Escarabajo]

Dauphine was a bomb this year. Very hard to compare it with Switzerland or d'Occitane. They had a bad race design, horrible weather and preferred not to race as hard. I feel bad for Quintana and other riders that decided to go there. The racing in the other 2 races was really good and perfect for training.

I would not draw any conclusions just yet on the Dauphine results.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

It's shallow climbs. They'll just do a negative split and anyone who attacks must solo the entire climb at a huge disadvantage while Sky keep their numbers together. They'll just let Rowe do the pacing all the way until the foot of l'Iseran and Val Thorens

Iseran stage - I can see that. Val Thorens - with 25 more or less difficult climbing kms before - no, because they would not be able to control the stage.

Good luck attacking and staying away for a long time on a 5% average gradient.

 

[Singer01]

If LRP had his usual form, but not his usual luck, he would be walking this.

 

[movingtarget]

Dennis top ten wouldn't surprise me much a but a top five would. I thought Bernal was riding with something in reserve but then if Dennis had ridden his usual TT he would have won the TDS but I guess there has to be some trade off for improved climbing. Wiggins managed very well and was an underrated climber as is Dumoulin but of course Dumoulin never had the train dragging him along and had to ride mountains more like a TT which he knows all about. Whether Dennis can keep a strong TT and keep improving his climbing remains to be seen.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

The more I look at the mountain stages the more I hate them. Val Thorens is just a much easier version of the Sierra Nevada stage of the 2017 Vuelta and GC wise that was a dud. Col de l'Iseran will be hit with a full peloton, and it's only borderline HC with a few false flat kilometers spread out, then there's the fact that the descent is so shallow a larger group has a huge advantage. Galibier south is horrendous, with only the final km being a half decent place to attack.

I've said it multiple times, stage 19 should finish in Val Thorens with Madaleine from South early on and Stage 20 in Tignes with Madaleine from North early on before the Iseran, that would be a proper queenstage with almost 5,300m of altitude gain.
The way the stages are now the Tour will probably won in the 2nd week.

 

[Escarabajo]

I saw your suggestions and they look marvelous Mayomaniac. But I hate it when we start doing the redesigning here that will never happen at the Tour. We can only hope.

However, I would not change anything to the Val-Thorens. I would take your recommendation for the previous day. It really needed a longer and harder stage to set it up for the next day.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Dennis top ten wouldn't surprise me much a but a top five would. I thought Bernal was riding with something in reserve but then if Dennis had ridden his usual TT he would have won the TDS but I guess there has to be some trade off for improved climbing. Wiggins managed very well and was an underrated climber as is Dumoulin but of course Dumoulin never had the train dragging him along and had to ride mountains more like a TT which he knows all about. Whether Dennis can keep a strong TT and keep improving his climbing remains to be seen.

Think Dennis is a bit too bulky to climb at that level. He isn't as skinny as Wiggins or even Dumoulin is and I think he mostly just traded off the sub 30minute fresh efforts for more endurance.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

I am not convinced Tour de Suisse was so so weak a field in comparison to Dauphine as everyone is pushing on here so I compared the two (in my own way)

1. Fuglsang v Bernal
2. Van Gardeen v Dennis
3. Buchman V Konrad
4. Poels v Benoot
5. Pinot V Hirt
6.Tuens v Spilak
7. Lutsenko V Pozzo
8. D Martin V Betencur
9 Quintana V Mas
10 Bardet V Roche

Outside top 10
Porte, Barguil, G Martin V Soler, Aru, Henao


Of course form has a lot to do with it but with exception of places 5 & 10 ,maybe 9 (8 ?) I don't see the Dauphine as miles stronger
I think Bernal was strongest of the lot but Dennis was not far behind
Obviously some of the riders in Swiss will not be at the Tour and some are not really 3 week racers
And of course the possible top 4 riders at the Tour didn t finish either race
Steven Kruijswijk, Geraint Thomas, Adam Yates (and Rigoberto Uran elsewhere)

So I dont think the Swiss field as so weak after all and certainly worth looking at for top 10 places and even the winner !!!

I don’t see how you can line those 2 tops 10s beside each other, one with multiple Tour podiums, top 10s, GT stage wins, and 5 monuments between them, and the other with some very capable, but hardly stellar, riders in it, and call them equal in GT GC terms. The best you can say about the Suisse top 10 is that there is definitely potential in there (Mas, Konrad) and guys whose true climbing level is unknown (Benoot, Dennis), but the Dauphine field is full of guys who’ve proven themselves in July (and also TJ, who had a good ride in the TT).

Proving my point about “potential” is the presence of Betancur in Suisse. All the bike racing talent in the world, but it’s been a long time since he got the job done over 3 weeks.

 

[rick james]

I can't believe we have posters tipping Fuglsang for a podium...he hasn't shown it in Grand tours and this tour will be the same

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I can't believe we have posters tipping Fuglsang for a podium...he hasn't shown it in Grand tours and this tour will be the same

Yeah, incredible that the rider who has been the best guy for hilly to mountainous races all season is being tipped for a podium in a race that is his main target and in which plenty of the biggest challengers will not attend.

 

[rick james]

he's still collapse, he always does

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

he's still collapse, he always does

Not really, he has just never really had the necessary level.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

he's still collapse, he always does

Not really, he has just never really had the necessary level.

Fuglsang is 34. If he had the necessary level in him you would have seen it before this season. Yet Fuglsang's best Grand Tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF.

IMO Fuglsang is Denmark's answer to Richie Porte but still not as good as Porte at his best.

 

[drebelo]

Re:

I can't believe we have posters tipping Fuglsang for a podium...he hasn't shown it in Grand tours and this tour will be the same

Tell that to Geraint Thomas

 

[bigcog]

Nibali (think he will go all in now Froome and TD are out)
Bernal, Fulgsang, Quintana, GT
Dennis, Pinot, Bardet
Porte, Poels, Landa
Mas

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

he's still collapse, he always does

Not really, he has just never really had the necessary level.

Fuglsang is 34. If he had the necessary level in him you would have seen it before this season. Yet Fuglsang's best Grand Tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF.

IMO Fuglsang is Denmark's answer to Richie Porte but still not as good as Porte at his best.

Er, I certainly never saw him having the necessary level to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège, get close to the Ardennes treble and winning Strade, nor being clearly the best in the most important Tour warm-up race before this season.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

he's still collapse, he always does

Not really, he has just never really had the necessary level.

Fuglsang is 34. If he had the necessary level in him you would have seen it before this season. Yet Fuglsang's best Grand Tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF.

IMO Fuglsang is Denmark's answer to Richie Porte but still not as good as Porte at his best.

Er, I certainly never saw him having the necessary level to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège, get close to the Ardennes treble and winning Strade, nor being clearly the best in the most important Tour warm-up race before this season.

None of which are a certain guide to podiuming Grand Tours. Porte at least showed he could go three weeks without collapsing in 2016 TdF. As I and others have said, if Fuglsang had genuine grand tour podium ability I think we would have seen it before the age of 34.

Anyhow this is just my opinion which I use history as a guide. If I am proven wrong good for him but I just don't see it.