Tour de France 2019

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Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
tobydawq said:
Cookster15 said:
tobydawq said:
rick james said:
he's still collapse, he always does
Not really, he has just never really had the necessary level.
Fuglsang is 34. If he had the necessary level in him you would have seen it before this season. Yet Fuglsang's best Grand Tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF.

IMO Fuglsang is Denmark's answer to Richie Porte but still not as good as Porte at his best.
Er, I certainly never saw him having the necessary level to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège, get close to the Ardennes treble and winning Strade, nor being clearly the best in the most important Tour warm-up race before this season.
None of which are a certain guide to podiuming Grand Tours. Porte at least showed he could go three weeks without collapsing in 2016 TdF. As I and others have said, if Fuglsang had genuine grand tour podium ability I think we would have seen it before the age of 34.

Anyhow this is just my opinion which I use history as a guide. If I am proven wrong good for him but I just don't see it.
I use current level as a guide. That was also the reason why I thought Thomas would win the Tour last year.

I just think that makes more sense than history.
 
Hope you used history as a guide last year when Thomas won.

Its just a lot less simple than you are making it out to be honestly. There are various factors that point in the direction that he has a great shot at a podium this year, just as there were various factor that indicated Thomas could contend last year.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Hope you used history as a guide last year when Thomas won.

Its just a lot less simple than you are making it out to be honestly. There are various factors that point in the direction that he has a great shot at a podium this year, just as there were various factor that indicated Thomas could contend last year.
That's right. After seeing Thomas win the Tour anything can happen, really.
The big if is that Thomas was riding for Sky. In a lot of people's minds that makes the difference.
 
Re: Re:

Escarabajo said:
Valv.Piti said:
Hope you used history as a guide last year when Thomas won.

Its just a lot less simple than you are making it out to be honestly. There are various factors that point in the direction that he has a great shot at a podium this year, just as there were various factor that indicated Thomas could contend last year.
That's right. After seeing Thomas win the Tour anything can happen, really.
The big if is that Thomas was riding for Sky. In a lot of people's minds that makes the difference.
Astana have looked in fine shape this year. If any team is equipped to take on the Ineos train, it’s them. It’s just a question of who is alongside Fuglsang once Thomas and Bernal are the last 2 from their team.
 
Much more even field this year, than any tour in recent memory.

It probably means smaller time gaps inside the top 10, even late in the race, which will make it incredibly hard to control.

Big question for me is, if this is the year the usual suspects ending up between 5th and 15th, finally realise they need to show more courage, and attack earlier, if they are to make a real difference - especially in a year when the primary team is decidedly weakened.

Otherwise Ineos (and this year Astana as well) will control every mountain stage, until Bernal or Thomas attacks, and Fuglsang starts chugging away like the little engine that could, to try and catch up before the line :)
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
movingtarget said:
Dennis top ten wouldn't surprise me much a but a top five would. I thought Bernal was riding with something in reserve but then if Dennis had ridden his usual TT he would have won the TDS but I guess there has to be some trade off for improved climbing. Wiggins managed very well and was an underrated climber as is Dumoulin but of course Dumoulin never had the train dragging him along and had to ride mountains more like a TT which he knows all about. Whether Dennis can keep a strong TT and keep improving his climbing remains to be seen.
Think Dennis is a bit too bulky to climb at that level. He isn't as skinny as Wiggins or even Dumoulin is and I think he mostly just traded off the sub 30minute fresh efforts for more endurance.
Yes the transformation is far from complete...........
 
My view on the top15 favorite according to bookers:

- Geraint Thomas: needed everything to be absolutely perfect to repeat, but his prep wasn't ideal and I have doubts over his shape. I don't see him on the podium.

- Egan Bernal: I've watched all the Tour prep races and nobody looked better than him. Not entirely proven over three weeks and he might have to work for GT, but at the moment he's my personal favorite to win the race.

- Jakob Fuglsang: very tricky to assess. He has never been a reliable GT rider, but the 2019 version of Fuglsang is a completely different beast. Could win it or finish 13th. First half of the tour looks excellent for him.

- Adam Yates: excellent season thus far, but is he consistent enough to handle the 3 weeks? Can he suddenly become a world class GT rider like his twin Simon did in 2018? I don't know, but this might turn out being a very conservative race and he could thrive in such circumstances.

- Nairo Quintana: has failed to crack the top5 in his last 3 GTs after podiuming 6 of the previous 7 he finished. Perhaps he has truly peaked much earlier than others. I'm not optimistic.

- Richie Porte: couldn't win the Tour when he looked like the best one week stage racer in the world. Won't do it now that he's hardly top10.

- Thibaut Pinot: could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for the enfant du pays. Bookers have him between 15/1 and 20/1 which seems rather high. But then again, he has failed to podium a GT in his last 7 attempts, DNFing 4 of them in the process. I view Pinot as an Evans type of rider: he will keep trying and most likely keep failing but this could be his 2011.

- Mikel Landa: I can't see him be competitive after such a tough Giro.

- Steven Kruijswijk: now this is an interesting pick. Geraint Thomas is the only rider who beat him last year and will ride the Tour in 2019. The key for him will be avoiding time losses in the first week. If he can do that, he's definitely podium material.

- Romain Bardet: hasn't really improved in the past 3 years, at least not as a GT rider. He's consistent but not a good enough climber to cover his (and his team's) TT limitations. I would like him to target the Vuelta one day. Top5 at best.

- Enric Mas: I'll be honest, I expected a lot more this year after his breakout in 2018. I know a rider's development can stall, bad years happen, and this looks like one for him. Hard to see him turn his season around at the Tour.

- Rigoberto Uran: I've rarely seen him as thin as he was in Occitanie. Wiith so few racing days he will likely get to the Tour a bit undercooked, hoping to hit his peak later in the race. We know he can handle the three weeks and EF looks like a totally different team this year. He's my dark horse to win the Tour de France 2019.

- Vincenzo Nibali: has never performed in consecutive GTs.

- Wouter Poels: third in the pecking order, not gonna happen.

- Emanuel Buchmann: Bora is on fire this season and he has indeed improved a lot but anything better than a top10 would surprise me.

Bonus

Dan Martin: never a sexy pick and the bookmakers seem to hate him. He's a fighter though so I will not put a top5 past him.

*****
**** Bernal
*** Uran, Kruijswijk, Fuglsang
** Thomas, Yates, Quintana, Bardet, Martin, Pinot
* Porte, Mas, Buchmann, Nibali, Landa, Poels
 
Re:

sir fly said:
Those who understand the way Froome's and Dumoulin's absence alters the competition shall have a chance.
Otherwise, Ineos will keep the upper hand.
I actually think Ineos might be just as strong if not stronger w/out Froome. It would have been one too many chiefs. Have they settled on a replacement yet? Having an in-form Castroviejo to work as a domestique w/out worrying about GC or stage hunting seems to me at least an even up trade for Froome (this is of course assuming that GT and Bernal are as strong as they were last year).

I think Dumoulin would have been 2nd again, tbh, against an Ineos squad with two potential podium finishers. I just can't see him resisting a 1-2 attack by GT and Bernal. Frankly I can't see anyone doing that.

To me the real wildcard is Thomas. He was unstoppable last year. I have no idea if it was a fluke or if he's really that good...guess we'll find out.
 
May 14, 2019
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Re:

SafeBet said:
- Steven Kruijswijk: now this is an interesting pick. Geraint Thomas is the only rider who beat him last year and will ride the Tour in 2019.
Interesting observation, didn't quite realize this. Would definitely like him to shake things up and fight for podium or even win!
 
Think you are rating Kruijswijk too high and Thomas too low, but I agree with your take on Rigo Urán. He really is a dark horse for this Tour much like Pinot. And his countryman Bardet, Im with you again, he doesn't have it. Super consistent, but you need more than consistency when you lose that much in the TT and TTT. And he just isn't that climber - he needs that extra 1-2% uphill and he doesnt have it.
I think Buchmann will be interesting this Tour. Could see him on the podium, but then again, I could see lots of riders on the podium.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
My view on the top15 favorite according to bookers:

- Geraint Thomas: needed everything to be absolutely perfect to repeat, but his prep wasn't ideal and I have doubts over his shape. I don't see him on the podium.

- Egan Bernal: I've watched all the Tour prep races and nobody looked better than him. Not entirely proven over three weeks and he might have to work for GT, but at the moment he's my personal favorite to win the race.

- Jakob Fuglsang: very tricky to assess. He has never been a reliable GT rider, but the 2019 version of Fuglsang is a completely different beast. Could win it or finish 13th. First half of the tour looks excellent for him.

- Adam Yates: excellent season thus far, but is he consistent enough to handle the 3 weeks? Can he suddenly become a world class GT rider like his twin Simon did in 2018? I don't know, but this might turn out being a very conservative race and he could thrive in such circumstances.

- Nairo Quintana: has failed to crack the top5 in his last 3 GTs after podiuming 6 of the previous 7 he finished. Perhaps he has truly peaked much earlier than others. I'm not optimistic.

- Richie Porte: couldn't win the Tour when he looked like the best one week stage racer in the world. Won't do it now that he's hardly top10.

- Thibaut Pinot: could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for the enfant du pays. Bookers have him between 15/1 and 20/1 which seems rather high. But then again, he has failed to podium a GT in his last 7 attempts, DNFing 4 of them in the process. I view Pinot as an Evans type of rider: he will keep trying and most likely keep failing but this could be his 2011.

- Mikel Landa: I can't see him be competitive after such a tough Giro.

- Steven Kruijswijk: now this is an interesting pick. Geraint Thomas is the only rider who beat him last year and will ride the Tour in 2019. The key for him will be avoiding time losses in the first week. If he can do that, he's definitely podium material.

- Romain Bardet: hasn't really improved in the past 3 years, at least not as a GT rider. He's consistent but not a good enough climber to cover his (and his team's) TT limitations. I would like him to target the Vuelta one day. Top5 at best.

- Enric Mas: I'll be honest, I expected a lot more this year after his breakout in 2018. I know a rider's development can stall, bad years happen, and this looks like one for him. Hard to see him turn his season around at the Tour.

- Rigoberto Uran: I've rarely seen him as thin as he was in Occitanie. Wiith so few racing days he will likely get to the Tour a bit undercooked, hoping to hit his peak later in the race. We know he can handle the three weeks and EF looks like a totally different team this year. He's my dark horse to win the Tour de France 2019.

- Vincenzo Nibali: has never performed in consecutive GTs.

- Wouter Poels: third in the pecking order, not gonna happen.

- Emanuel Buchmann: Bora is on fire this season and he has indeed improved a lot but anything better than a top10 would surprise me.

Bonus

Dan Martin: never a sexy pick and the bookmakers seem to hate him. He's a fighter though so I will not put a top5 past him.

*****
**** Bernal
*** Uran, Kruijswijk, Fuglsang
** Thomas, Yates, Quintana, Bardet, Martin, Pinot
* Porte, Mas, Buchmann, Nibali, Landa, Poels
Agree with a lot of the above especially regarding the chances of Quintana and Bardet. The Ineos riders deserve favouritism. Yates has to be considered. Dennis could maybe sneak into the top 10. Uran is a mystery due to lack of racing but comparing Pinot to Evans is a bit strange. Evans completed every GT he entered even one with a broken bone in his arm, had five podiums, three in the Tour including a win, plus a couple of top five placings, was a good TT rider unlike Pinot and was a more complete rider over three weeks often riding on weaker teams than Pinot had. Pinot's a likeable rider but hardly in Evan's class. I think he could podium at his best but I see him more as top five which for him is about standard.
 
Re: Re:

Bolder said:
HelloDolly said:
My picks for the podium are Kruijswijk, Bernal & Uran
In that order?

I would love to see Kruijswijk finally get revenge on that snowbank! I just watched the crash again and he narrowly escaped a serious head/neck injury.
He's definitely got a strong team and their confidence will be high enough with some of Groenewegen's stage wins. Bennett, De Plus, Martin and Van Aert. Nice team to head to the mountains. Big big favorites for the TTT as well.
 
My dream: Pinot pulls a 2011 Evans, or another darkhorse* rises to take a surprise GC win.

My nightmare (and my expectation): "G" will fly away from frazzled GC hopefuls like Tinkerbell from Captain Hook shackled with giant iron balls. The good soldier Bernal will escort him up the big hills, smiling at all the rest and checking messages on his I-phone after G launches and everyone else falls away into the great abyss of resignation.

*"Darkhorse" in this context (for me) means any competitor from a team other than Ineos.
 
Re:

Alexandre B. said:
L'Equipe has made Bernal their favorite to win the Tour. (and put the pressure on our own chances)
And the French will be disappointed yet again. Neither Pinot nor Bardet have ever won a significant stage race and imo there's at least 10 guys more likely to win this race than them even with Froome, Dumo, Roglic gone. A respectable finish is possible, sure, but not victory.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
My view on the top15 favorite according to bookers:

- Geraint Thomas: needed everything to be absolutely perfect to repeat, but his prep wasn't ideal and I have doubts over his shape. I don't see him on the podium.

- Egan Bernal: I've watched all the Tour prep races and nobody looked better than him. Not entirely proven over three weeks and he might have to work for GT, but at the moment he's my personal favorite to win the race.

- Jakob Fuglsang: very tricky to assess. He has never been a reliable GT rider, but the 2019 version of Fuglsang is a completely different beast. Could win it or finish 13th. First half of the tour looks excellent for him.

- Adam Yates: excellent season thus far, but is he consistent enough to handle the 3 weeks? Can he suddenly become a world class GT rider like his twin Simon did in 2018? I don't know, but this might turn out being a very conservative race and he could thrive in such circumstances.

- Nairo Quintana: has failed to crack the top5 in his last 3 GTs after podiuming 6 of the previous 7 he finished. Perhaps he has truly peaked much earlier than others. I'm not optimistic.

- Richie Porte: couldn't win the Tour when he looked like the best one week stage racer in the world. Won't do it now that he's hardly top10.

- Thibaut Pinot: could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for the enfant du pays. Bookers have him between 15/1 and 20/1 which seems rather high. But then again, he has failed to podium a GT in his last 7 attempts, DNFing 4 of them in the process. I view Pinot as an Evans type of rider: he will keep trying and most likely keep failing but this could be his 2011.

- Mikel Landa: I can't see him be competitive after such a tough Giro.

- Steven Kruijswijk: now this is an interesting pick. Geraint Thomas is the only rider who beat him last year and will ride the Tour in 2019. The key for him will be avoiding time losses in the first week. If he can do that, he's definitely podium material.

- Romain Bardet: hasn't really improved in the past 3 years, at least not as a GT rider. He's consistent but not a good enough climber to cover his (and his team's) TT limitations. I would like him to target the Vuelta one day. Top5 at best.

- Enric Mas: I'll be honest, I expected a lot more this year after his breakout in 2018. I know a rider's development can stall, bad years happen, and this looks like one for him. Hard to see him turn his season around at the Tour.

- Rigoberto Uran: I've rarely seen him as thin as he was in Occitanie. Wiith so few racing days he will likely get to the Tour a bit undercooked, hoping to hit his peak later in the race. We know he can handle the three weeks and EF looks like a totally different team this year. He's my dark horse to win the Tour de France 2019.

- Vincenzo Nibali: has never performed in consecutive GTs.

- Wouter Poels: third in the pecking order, not gonna happen.

- Emanuel Buchmann: Bora is on fire this season and he has indeed improved a lot but anything better than a top10 would surprise me.

Bonus

Dan Martin: never a sexy pick and the bookmakers seem to hate him. He's a fighter though so I will not put a top5 past him.

*****
**** Bernal
*** Uran, Kruijswijk, Fuglsang
** Thomas, Yates, Quintana, Bardet, Martin, Pinot
* Porte, Mas, Buchmann, Nibali, Landa, Poels
Nice assessment. I would move Yates up a level.
Agree about Pinot and Uran being dark horses.
 
I don't know about Thomas. I still kinda get the Wiggins 2013 vibes from him. Maybe I'm entirely wrong but I just don't see him smashing everyone this year also as even if he is the leader it will be very difficult for him to gain time on bernal if bernal is simply better. Really the only guy I wouldn't be surprised about if he dominated this race is bernal
 

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