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Tour de France 2019

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The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.

Even Jungels, 8 years younger, has a better GT track record. He's also had good classics campaigns. That never made him a contender for the win.
 
Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
 
Re: Re:

Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.

It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.
There's a big difference between Alaphilippe and Fuglsang. Fuglsang has won and been competitive in many stage races with many different types of fields. Alaphilippe for the most part isn't.
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
There's a big difference between Alaphilippe and Fuglsang. Fuglsang has won and been competitive in many stage races with many different types of fields. Alaphilippe for the most part isn't.
Fuglsang hasn't been remotely competitive for the classification (podium or win) in any GT he's ever raced, that people are now seeing him contend for. That was my point. I'm glad you see the broken logic when it comes to Alaphilippe. And i refer to his age, not for being too old, but for there being nothing in his past to proof he can.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.

It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
Alaphillipe will win the KOM again simply because he is strong enough to consistently get in the breaks where he's usually the best climber. The most talented GC climbers no longer win KOM's as much as they used to but calling him a GC possibility is a stretch.

Fuglsang was always a top 10 GC rider but even in career best form I don't see him holding it together for three weeks which has always been his issue and the form has to wane sometime soon. Top five is possible maybe.

Like the Giro I expect a competitive race which will be won by a first time GT winner if Thomas doesn't show up in form. Nibali along with Quintana is the only other GT winner in the race and I doubt he will do much for the overall. Stephen K might do well but I don't see him winning, a podium in this field wouldn't surprise too much. Hopefully Jumbo sort out their Giro mess where the team at times seemed amateurish. I put him on the same level as Bardet and Pinot. They have the ability to podium but will they ? As for Quintana well your guess is a as good as mine. If Uran finished ahead of him I wouldn't be surprised. TJVG back in the top 10 ? His Dauphine ride was encouraging as was his TT but the high mountains and thee weeks seem to be his major issue these days but I think a top 10 is doable if he rides up to his ability.
 
It might be easier to say who wont win the Tour and then you may have a better idea of who will.when you eliminqte the impossible you are left with the probable

For me Fuglsang will start very well but I think in the end he will be top 5
I also feel that Porte has not looked good and I can see him wining
I think Van Garderen & Dennis will fade
Cant see Nairo Quitana finally doing it
Thibaut Pinot will not like the extreme heat
I think Thomas & Bardet are not flying on full cylinders but may come good in the final week
Mas, Aru dont have the form
Konrad not over 3 weeks ..maybe 10th - 12th
NIbali, Landa & Simon Yates have the Giro in their legs but you never know ...top 5 at best

So that leaves A. Yates, D Martin,Stevie K, Uran, Valverde, Buchmann & Bernal
 
Re: Re:

movingtarget said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.

It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
Alaphillipe will win the KOM again simply because he is strong enough to consistently get in the breaks where he's usually the best climber. The most talented GC climbers no longer win KOM's as much as they used to but calling him a GC possibility is a stretch.

Fuglsang was always a top 10 GC rider but even in career best form I don't see him holding it together for three weeks which has always been his issue and the form has to wane sometime soon. Top five is possible maybe.

Like the Giro I expect a competitive race which will be won by a first time GT winner if Thomas doesn't show up in form. Nibali along with Quintana is the only other GT winner in the race and I doubt he will do much for the overall. Stephen K might do well but I don't see him winning, a podium in this field wouldn't surprise too much. Hopefully Jumbo sort out their Giro mess where the team time at times seemed amateurish. I put him on the same level as Bardet and Pinot. They have the ability to podium but will they ? As for Quintana well your guess is a as good as mine. If Uran finished ahead of him I wouldn't be surprised. TJVG back in the top 10 ? His Dauphine ride was encouraging as was his TT but the high mountains and thee weeks seem to be his major issue these days but I think a top 10 is doable if he rides up to his ability.

Not exactly accurate. Valverde will be in the race and is a GT winner. However, unlikely as it is that he'll win the Tour especially with all the high altitude in this year's Tour.
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
movingtarget said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.

It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
Alaphillipe will win the KOM again simply because he is strong enough to consistently get in the breaks where he's usually the best climber. The most talented GC climbers no longer win KOM's as much as they used to but calling him a GC possibility is a stretch.

Fuglsang was always a top 10 GC rider but even in career best form I don't see him holding it together for three weeks which has always been his issue and the form has to wane sometime soon. Top five is possible maybe.

Like the Giro I expect a competitive race which will be won by a first time GT winner if Thomas doesn't show up in form. Nibali along with Quintana is the only other GT winner in the race and I doubt he will do much for the overall. Stephen K might do well but I don't see him winning, a podium in this field wouldn't surprise too much. Hopefully Jumbo sort out their Giro mess where the team time at times seemed amateurish. I put him on the same level as Bardet and Pinot. They have the ability to podium but will they ? As for Quintana well your guess is a as good as mine. If Uran finished ahead of him I wouldn't be surprised. TJVG back in the top 10 ? His Dauphine ride was encouraging as was his TT but the high mountains and thee weeks seem to be his major issue these days but I think a top 10 is doable if he rides up to his ability.

Not exactly accurate. Valverde will be in the race and is a GT winner. However, unlikely as it is that he'll win the Tour especially with all the high altitude in this year's Tour.
Forgot Valverde but I don't see him as a serious contender for the podium. Landa could be interesting depending on how the Giro affected him. Really he should have podiumed at the Giro.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.

I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.

There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.

It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
I'll try to break some of the logic down.

He does have a GT top 10, so he can last 3 weeks. Kind of.

Of the 6 who finished ahead of him when he got his top 10, Purito and Contador are retired, Kreuziger and Mollema have proven to be perennial top10 fodder, Quintana just isn't firing, and Froome is in a hospital bed.

He's riding better this year than he ever has. So while it's surprising that he's become a Tour contender at an advanced age, it's not just because people like his face.

He's won the Dauphine twice now, so he can make it over the big mountains (this is the factor that eliminates Alaphilippe, for example).

The lack of Froome, Roglic etc doesn't in itself make him a contender. The fact that, in the absence of Froome, Dumoulin, Roglic, people are seriously discussing the likes of Pinot, Kruiswijik, Yates, Bardet, Uran as the chief challengers to Ineos, means that you can't not consider Fuglsang. Because on current form, you can't pick any of those guys ahead of Fuglsang.

And mention of Ineos brings us to the real reason people are talking up Fuglsang; people want somebody to beat Sky, or at least make them work for it. And with no Dumoulin, no Roglic, Movistar disappointing us all just too many times in the past, Nibali coming off a hard Giro, the other leaders just having a history of being that bit too flakey, then maybe, just maybe, the leader of Astana can do it. They're the last other team to win the Tour. They've been up there in every race this season, taking a phenomenal number of wins for a team with no real sprinters. And in a team full of high performers, Fuglsang's been their best rider. Ergo, Fuglsang has as good a chance as anyone in the Tour of being the guy who beats Bernal/Thomas.
 
Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
Poursuivant said:
Fuglsang will win this Tour.
I just don't get this. No evidence other than Dauphine. That isn't a good guide. At 34 riders usually give strong clues of their Grand Tour capabilities well before.

By comparison Cadel Evans was also 34 when he won the Tour. But by then Evans had two MTB world cups, was in pink at the 2002 Giro until the final mountain, two previous Tour podiums, a worlds victory on a climbers course, a Vuelta podium, 5th in the 2010 Giro and showed promise on the road since 1999.

But what has Fuglsang done that suggests he can turn his own history on its head in the biggest and hardest fought of the Grand Tours? Best grand tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF. Or are we now in the age of the late bloomers? Like Geraint?
7th, 11th, 12th, 12th (no other top 20 finishes) from a rider who's had plenty of chances to go for GC at GTs isn't promising. There are plenty of riders in the peloton who would've managed more than one to 10 with that same freedom.
 
Sky per Gazette today: Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwito, Castro, Moscon, van Baarle, Rowe

Stupidly strong team. Everyone can pretty much do everything. Will win the TTT easily and dominate the race, Froome or no Froome.
 
Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
Poursuivant said:
Fuglsang will win this Tour.
I just don't get this. No evidence other than Dauphine. That isn't a good guide. At 34 riders usually give strong clues of their Grand Tour capabilities well before.

By comparison Cadel Evans was also 34 when he won the Tour. But by then Evans had two MTB world cups, was in pink at the 2002 Giro until the final mountain, two previous Tour podiums, a worlds victory on a climbers course, a Vuelta podium, 5th in the 2010 Giro and showed promise on the road since 1999.

But what has Fuglsang done that suggests he can turn his own history on its head in the biggest and hardest fought of the Grand Tours? Best grand tour result was 7th in 2013 TdF. Or are we now in the age of the late bloomers? Like Geraint?
He has only started 3 GTs as a captain in his career.

First time he got 7th
Second time he crashed out in 5th
Third time he was in 4th, then had one big off day and dropped to 12th

The last one (2018) is a definite worry, but both himself and Astana has said they have identified the problem and fixed it, so if that is to be believed, there are grounds for optimism.

I have a hard time seeing him win it, not least because he has been plagued by bad luck his entire career, and winning a GT takes luck as well - but I definitely see him as an obvious podium candidate.
 
Dec 21, 2015
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I'm surprised by Gilbert being left out of DSQ's team...he's been looking pretty good recently...

And whilst I understand the doubt surrounding Fulgsang, his season so far has been stellar - Wins at Dauphine & Vuelta a Andalucia, with podiums at Tirreno & Itzulia (sort of!). I'd say he's pretty decent at stage racing, and that's without mentioning his one-day results, so a good performance at the TdF wouldn't exactly come as a surprise...
Form counts for a lot more than historical results do.
 
Re: Re:

Alexandre B. said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Valv.Piti said:
QS: Viviani, Richeze, Mørkøv, Algreen, Lampaert, Jalaphilippe, Devenyns and Mas
Both Lampaert and Asgreen selected, tells me they are eyeing that TTT on stage 2 - in Belgium - I see them as the greatest threat to Ineos winning that stage :)
Jumbo-Visma is favorite for me.
I agree they are a contender, Van Aert winning the Dauphine TT upset the apple cart :D

Him, Kruijswijk, Martin and De Plus are quite a formidable quartet on a TTT.

However, the team only got 13th last year, and Groenewegen and Bennett can't TT to save their lives, so the question becomes if they are prepared to leave those riders behind, or want to bring them to the line.
 

KZD

Feb 21, 2019
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Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Sky per Gazette today: Thomas, Bernal, Poels, Kwito, Castro, Moscon, van Baarle, Rowe

Stupidly strong team. Everyone can pretty much do everything. Will win the TTT easily and dominate the race, Froome or no Froome.
Great team but I disagree regarding the TTT. Sometimes they underperform a bit there and without Froome they will be weaker, last year with Frrome they didn't won either. I think Jumbo and Quick Step have an higher chance of winning and I put with Ineos in a second group with EF, Mitchelton and Sunweb.
 

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