Re: Re:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Leinster said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
The logic behind declaring Fuglsang a favorite is just completely lost on me. Because he was very strong in the classics this year, he will now be a contender for the podium or the win, eventhough in his long carreer, at 34, he has never even come close to competing for a podium, in any GT.
I think he as a fair shot of cracking the top 10. Maybe 6th - 10th on his current form. But i'd be very surprised if he'd actually do better than that. I think i'm just being realistic here. He's a subpar GT GC rider, and a good classics campaign won't change that all of a sudden.
He’s never competed at a high level in the classics before this season either, yet he still went out and won Liege, and was on the podium of Strade Bianche, Amstel and Flèche.
There are no proven GT winners coming into this Tour fresh and in-form. So Fuglsang, who’s been the form rider this season, and rides for a strong team, has to be considered a contender.
That makes no sense to me. The lack of Froome, Roglic etc, don't make Alaphilippe a contender, after his stellar classics campaign, does it. If you really believe a guy like Fuglsang, who's been a protected rider and has had plenty opportunities in the past to go for GC, will now suddenly turn into a contender at age 34, even though there is little in his history to suggest he can, then i simply don't think you're being realistic. But, that's just my opinion.
It's a pitty he couldn't finish the TDF in 2017. Halfway, he was in 5th place, but the gap to nr 4 was bigger than to nr 8. And there were some pretty big names breathing down his neck (Quintana, Yates, Landa, Martin) with a few interesting stages still to come.
I'll try to break some of the logic down.
He does have a GT top 10, so he can last 3 weeks. Kind of.
Of the 6 who finished ahead of him when he got his top 10, Purito and Contador are retired, Kreuziger and Mollema have proven to be perennial top10 fodder, Quintana just isn't firing, and Froome is in a hospital bed.
He's riding better this year than he ever has. So while it's surprising that he's become a Tour contender at an advanced age, it's not just because people like his face.
He's won the Dauphine twice now, so he can make it over the big mountains (this is the factor that eliminates Alaphilippe, for example).
The lack of Froome, Roglic etc doesn't in itself make him a contender. The fact that, in the absence of Froome, Dumoulin, Roglic, people are seriously discussing the likes of Pinot, Kruiswijik, Yates, Bardet, Uran as the chief challengers to Ineos, means that you can't not consider Fuglsang. Because on current form, you can't pick any of those guys ahead of Fuglsang.
And mention of Ineos brings us to the real reason people are talking up Fuglsang; people want somebody to beat Sky, or at least make them work for it. And with no Dumoulin, no Roglic, Movistar disappointing us all just too many times in the past, Nibali coming off a hard Giro, the other leaders just having a history of being that bit too flakey, then maybe, just maybe, the leader of Astana can do it. They're the last other team to win the Tour. They've been up there in every race this season, taking a phenomenal number of wins for a team with no real sprinters. And in a team full of high performers, Fuglsang's been their best rider. Ergo, Fuglsang has as good a chance as anyone in the Tour of being the guy who beats Bernal/Thomas.