Tour de France 2019

[Pantani_lives]

There has only been one mountain stage and 10th is almost 4 minutes behind the yellow jersey somehow.

Big gaps, but I think I prefer it this way with the TT’s out the way and 5 mountain stages to go. Riders know now what they have to do rather than have 10 separated by a minute where nobody wants to be the first to make a move.

On the other hand the gap between No. 2 and No. 10 is only two and a half minutes, which isn't that much.

 

[TomLPC]

Juan antonio, didn’t know he could read

 

[JosephK]

The French are rightfully going bonkers. JA not only has yellow, but he has a sizable lead after the Tourmalet.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The French are rightfully going bonkers. JA not only has yellow, but he has a sizable lead after the Tourmalet.

Not only that, the other contender for strongest looking rider in the race so far is also French. The world has turned upside down.

 

[Gigs_98]

The big problem for Alaphilippe is that a "big" lead in the sense of two minutes is often massively overrated. Even if he doesn't completely crack if other climbers are stronger than him two minutes will not be enough. Yesterday Alaphilippe had to just stay in a group of favorites for the whole day and give everything that was left in him on the final kilometer. To this point he hasn't had to respond to any attacks, he hasn't had to close any gap by himself and his complete lack of a climbing team hasn't been a problem yet. If Kruijswijk, Landa, Pinot and Bernal attack on the Iseran with teammates in front, what is he gonna do? Follow every move himself? I really doubt he would even be able to do that. If anything I think Alaphilippe was absolutely on the limit for most of the Tourmalet and an attack by Pinot somewhere around the 3 km mark would have immediately dropped him.

I don't know, maybe I'm pessimistic but while many people went from "he might have a chance to win the tour", to "he is the favorite to win the tour" yesterday, I went from "no way he wins the tour" to "he might have a chance to win the tour". Nothing more. I still don't see him holding on to this lead and if he does I think it will be because his rivals didn't try hard enough.

 

[Red Rick]

The big problem for Alaphilippe is that a "big" lead in the sense of two minutes is often massively overrated. Even if he doesn't completely crack if other climbers are stronger than him two minutes will not be enough. Yesterday Alaphilippe had to just stay in a group of favorites for the whole day and give everything that was left in him on the final kilometer. To this point he hasn't had to respond to any attacks, he hasn't had to close any gap by himself and his complete lack of a climbing team hasn't been a problem yet. If Kruijswijk, Landa, Pinot and Bernal attack on the Iseran with teammates in front, what is he gonna do? Follow every move himself? I really doubt he would even be able to do that. If anything I think Alaphilippe was absolutely on the limit for most of the Tourmalet and an attack by Pinot somewhere around the 3 km mark would have immediately dropped him.

I don't know, maybe I'm pessimistic but while many people went from "he might have a chance to win the tour", to "he is the favorite to win the tour" yesterday, I went from "no way he wins the tour" to "he might have a chance to win the tour". Nothing more. I still don't see him holding on to this lead and if he does I think it will be because his rivals didn't try hard enough.

Feel like it's either a win or no outside the top 5.

 

[Gigs_98]

The big problem for Alaphilippe is that a "big" lead in the sense of two minutes is often massively overrated. Even if he doesn't completely crack if other climbers are stronger than him two minutes will not be enough. Yesterday Alaphilippe had to just stay in a group of favorites for the whole day and give everything that was left in him on the final kilometer. To this point he hasn't had to respond to any attacks, he hasn't had to close any gap by himself and his complete lack of a climbing team hasn't been a problem yet. If Kruijswijk, Landa, Pinot and Bernal attack on the Iseran with teammates in front, what is he gonna do? Follow every move himself? I really doubt he would even be able to do that. If anything I think Alaphilippe was absolutely on the limit for most of the Tourmalet and an attack by Pinot somewhere around the 3 km mark would have immediately dropped him.

I don't know, maybe I'm pessimistic but while many people went from "he might have a chance to win the tour", to "he is the favorite to win the tour" yesterday, I went from "no way he wins the tour" to "he might have a chance to win the tour". Nothing more. I still don't see him holding on to this lead and if he does I think it will be because his rivals didn't try hard enough.

Feel like it's either a win or no outside the top 5.

Absolutely. I just still think outside the top 5 is more likely

 

[MatParker117]

Five riders can win this race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The problem for Skineos is that Thomas isn't better than Alaphilippe, and Bernal isn't better than Pinot.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Five riders can win this race.

Alaphillipe,Thomas,Pinot,Kruijswijk, Buchmann,Bernal & Landa are all still in it imo ...theoretically anyways

All the others do not have a chance

Uran, Fuglsang , Valverde & Porte could make top 10
Maybe Kreuziger and Barguil could make top 10 but probably 11th & 12th

A Yates, Quintana , D Martin, Mas, Aru, Bardet completely gone

Begs the question especially with all the new talent this year like Bernal, Sivakov, Sosa, Dunbar, Pogacar, Kamna
should the older guys just make way
Where can Quintana & Porte go from here ?
Even Uran who didnt race much before the Tour ?
Or Dan Martin who will be 33 in a few weeks and got a big pay packet from UAE to lead the Tour ?
Bardet also can he comeback to a Tour podium level
And the yates twin as Giro or Tour leaders ?

 

[Merckx index]

Re: Re:

Alaphillipe,Thomas,Pinot,Kruijswijk, Buchmann,Bernal & Landa are all still in it imo ...theoretically anyways

Don't see how Landa can win. It's not just the time he has to make up, it 's all the riders in front of him. He not only he needs a great performance from himself, but a poor one from all the others. That's very unlikely.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Bernal - pros - Altitude,Team Cons- GC experience
Pinot - Pros- Strongest in Race, team Cons- consistency
Thomas - pros - Experience, Team Cons- Known to crack,weaker
Kruijswijk - Pros- consistency, team Cons- weaker
Buchmann - Pros- Unknown , team Cons- team, experience
Alaphillipe- Pros- Time buffer, team Cons- team, experience
Bernal and Pinot to fly, Thomas and Kruijswijk to chase, Buchmann and Alaphillipe to crack

 

[MartinGT]

Think the biggest issue for Thomas this year is lack of racing miles in his legs.

 

[Salvarani]

I think Pinot being stronger atm could level out in the last days. He put in a crazy effort yesterday. On the other hand. If Ala cracks. He dont have a lot more to gain on Thomas or Bernal to overtake them. It wouldnt surprise me if Thomas got better in the third week either. Hope not though, since I rather see Pinot win this. Think it would be great.

There is a lot of climbing left, three days in a row. One bad day and you are out of it.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'd put it this way:

Bernal - pros - Altitude,Team Cons- GC experience
Pinot - Pros- Strongest in Race, team Cons- consistency, resistance to heat
Thomas - pros - Experience, Team Cons- not in the best form
Kruijswijk - Pros- consistency, altitude team Cons- no explosiveness to go with attacks
Buchmann - Pros- top 3 climber right now, team Cons- team, 3rd week?
Alaphillipe- Pros- Time buffer, team Cons- team, 3rd week.

Pinot is obviously gonna continue to pressure. However in the high altitude climbs I expect more of Bernal and Kruijswijk.
I think Buchmann will fade a bit. Thomas is a bit 50/50, I think he had a bad day and Tourmalet and was already improving yesterday. He's still positioned best if Alaf cracks.

Right now I'm 50% Pinot / 40% Thomas / 10% somebody else (Kruijswijk/Bernal actually)

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

I'd put it this way:

Bernal - pros - Altitude,Team Cons- GC experience
Pinot - Pros- Strongest in Race, team Cons- consistency, resistance to heat
Thomas - pros - Experience, Team Cons- not in the best form
Kruijswijk - Pros- consistency, altitude team Cons- no explosiveness to go with attacks
Buchmann - Pros- top 3 climber right now, team Cons- team, 3rd week?
Alaphillipe- Pros- Time buffer, team Cons- team, 3rd week.

Pinot is obviously gonna continue to pressure. However in the high altitude climbs I expect more of Bernal and Kruijswijk.
I think Buchmann will fade a bit. Thomas is a bit 50/50, I think he had a bad day and Tourmalet and was already improving yesterday. He's still positioned best if Alaf cracks.

Right now I'm 50% Pinot / 40% Thomas / 10% somebody else (Kruijswijk/Bernal actually)

Pretty much agree with this, I think Pinot’s biggest challenge will be if it does get mega hot as predicted over the next few days.

 

[WildspokeJoe]

This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.

37 degrees on Tuesday, then early thirties Wednesday to Saturday, obviously cooler though on the mountain tops. Would two hot days through the flatlands be enough to make Pinot blow up in the Alps? I'm not so sure. Didn't he do well in the Vuelta last year?

If it does become a total war of attrition then perhaps Landa could be a serious contender.

What may be of more interest is that rain is scheduled for Wednesday through Saturday....which probably helps Alaphalippe actually.

 

[Red Rick]

Really think Landa and Movistar have a few cards to play yet. Landa is probably not gonna win but he may get the role of kingmaker this Tour. If anybody he's probably the one to attack on the Izoard come Thursday.

 

[del1962]

The third week after GC at the Giro is likely to tell on Landa

 

[Anderis]

Re:

This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.

Pinot's support in the mountains is OK and better than many riders who managed to finish inside top5 in the last few years.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.

Pinot's support in the mountains is OK and better than many riders who managed to finish inside top5 in the last few years.

Gaudu and Bennett are the strongest domestiques so far

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.

Pinot's support in the mountains is OK and better than many riders who managed to finish inside top5 in the last few years.

Gaudu and Bennett are the strongest domestiques so far

Amadorneeds to be on thelst fo rme ...phenomenal

 

[Singer01]

Poels will be the strongest when it counts in all likelihood.

 

[Tonton]

Historically, Pinot is strong week 3: Tour '12, '14, '15, Giro '17, Vuelta '13, '18. Last year's Giro is still a very fresh memory, but it's the exception. The problem for Pinot has been to make it to the 3rd week. What now? It's a six day bike race, the first two are easy but require vigilance...it can get windy in and around Nimes; there could be a break in the peloton in the stage 17 finish. After that, it's three days, hopefully rain, which would be an advantage for Le Tibo. He can smell blood, I don't expect (fingers crossed) a let down. The real question for me is what Ineos does or doesn't do.