Tour de France 2019

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Historically, Pinot is strong week 3: Tour '12, '14, '15, Giro '17, Vuelta '13, '18. Last year's Giro is still a very fresh memory, but it's the exception. The problem for Pinot has been to make it to the 3rd week. What now? It's a six day bike race, the first two are easy but require vigilance...it can get windy in and around Nimes; there could be a break in the peloton in the stage 17 finish. After that, it's three days, hopefully rain, which would be an advantage for Le Tibo. He can smell blood, I don't expect (fingers crossed) a let down. The real question for me is what Ineos does or doesn't do.
 
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del1962 said:
Anderis said:
WildspokeJoe said:
This is going to sound like a brutal take but neither Frenchman will finish in the top 5. It's going to get hotter and neither has the type of support you need in the mountains to sustain a top 5 tour campaign. Hope I'm wrong.
Pinot's support in the mountains is OK and better than many riders who managed to finish inside top5 in the last few years.
Gaudu and Bennett are the strongest domestiques so far
If Mas recovers, he was strong enough before his illness to be sitting top 5, ahead of Bernal in the white jersey.
 
Apr 22, 2012
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HelloDolly said:
MatParker117 said:
Begs the question especially with all the new talent this year like Bernal, Sivakov, Sosa, Dunbar, Pogacar, Kamna
should the older guys just make way
This is kinda bland thought. Old guys are always making way. Can't be other way.

Chris Horner says hello. Evetually he too made way.
 
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Red Rick said:
Really think Landa and Movistar have a few cards to play yet. Landa is probably not gonna win but he may get the role of kingmaker this Tour. If anybody he's probably the one to attack on the Izoard come Thursday.
I agree. Landa could be a real pest especially to teams like Ineos. He has nothing to lose. Simon Yates could also be dangerous if he sees the chance of another stage win and if he is willing to contribute to an attack from the GC contenders.
 
Tonton said:
Historically, Pinot is strong week 3: Tour '12, '14, '15, Giro '17, Vuelta '13, '18. Last year's Giro is still a very fresh memory, but it's the exception. The problem for Pinot has been to make it to the 3rd week. What now? It's a six day bike race, the first two are easy but require vigilance...it can get windy in and around Nimes; there could be a break in the peloton in the stage 17 finish. After that, it's three days, hopefully rain, which would be an advantage for Le Tibo. He can smell blood, I don't expect (fingers crossed) a let down. The real question for me is what Ineos does or doesn't do.
Giro 2017 he was one of the 2 best climbers in the race in the last 2 mountain stages. He just had his usual ITT *** up. If he keeps his form, it is his to lose.

I really worry about the heat though.
 
Tonton said:
Historically, Pinot is strong week 3: Tour '12, '14, '15, Giro '17, Vuelta '13, '18. Last year's Giro is still a very fresh memory, but it's the exception. The problem for Pinot has been to make it to the 3rd week. What now? It's a six day bike race, the first two are easy but require vigilance...it can get windy in and around Nimes; there could be a break in the peloton in the stage 17 finish. After that, it's three days, hopefully rain, which would be an advantage for Le Tibo. He can smell blood, I don't expect (fingers crossed) a let down. The real question for me is what Ineos does or doesn't do.
Is last years giro even an exception? Like, of course he had his complete collapse on stage 20, but that was obviously not due to his shape but due to illness. Before that he was mediocre for most of the giro and only got into the podium spots becuase he had probably his best performance up to that point on the Finestre stage. So his general shape wasn't bad going into the third week.
 
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Broccolidwarf said:
Reading the rest day interviews, one thing hits me:

Ineos is talking about "winning".

Every other team is talking about "the podium".

My money is on the team going for the win :)
Whether he is saying it out loud or not, I'm sure Pinot is focused on winning. He can see the opportunity is there.
And remember that what we read about a team/rider's statements in the media reports, has a lot to do with what questions journalists are asking them. Do you think anyone is asking Team Ineous, "do you think you can podium?" Of course not, they are only asking them "Can you win?"
 
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Sciatic said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Reading the rest day interviews, one thing hits me:

Ineos is talking about "winning".

Every other team is talking about "the podium".

My money is on the team going for the win :)
Whether he is saying it out loud or not, I'm sure Pinot is focused on winning. He can see the opportunity is there.
And remember that what we read about a team/rider's statements in the media reports, has a lot to do with what questions journalists are asking them. Do you think anyone is asking Team Ineous, "do you think you can podium?" Of course not, they are only asking them "Can you win?"
It's a question of attitude.

Winners always believe they can win.
 
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Kokoso said:
HelloDolly said:
MatParker117 said:
Begs the question especially with all the new talent this year like Bernal, Sivakov, Sosa, Dunbar, Pogacar, Kamna
should the older guys just make way
This is kinda bland thought. Old guys are always making way. Can't be other way.

Chris Horner says hello. Evetually he too made way.

You really are rude and condescending

What I meant was make way sooner rather than later. My point which is explanatory and in the context of the older rider performances in this Tour
But no matter my point who are you to come on here and say its bland ...what sensational or interesting points do you make becasue I have never seen any
..your mother didnt teach you any manners that is for sure
 
Red Rick said:
Tonton said:
Historically, Pinot is strong week 3: Tour '12, '14, '15, Giro '17, Vuelta '13, '18. Last year's Giro is still a very fresh memory, but it's the exception. The problem for Pinot has been to make it to the 3rd week. What now? It's a six day bike race, the first two are easy but require vigilance...it can get windy in and around Nimes; there could be a break in the peloton in the stage 17 finish. After that, it's three days, hopefully rain, which would be an advantage for Le Tibo. He can smell blood, I don't expect (fingers crossed) a let down. The real question for me is what Ineos does or doesn't do.
Giro 2017 he was one of the 2 best climbers in the race in the last 2 mountain stages. He just had his usual ITT **** up. If he keeps his form, it is his to lose.

I really worry about the heat though.
Isn't that his problem though ? If it's not crosswinds it's heat or illness or the TT. At least he has ticked the TT box this year and he is climbing as well as anyone. Time will tell.
 
pastronef said:
http://www.twitter.com/JournalVelo

Thought for the day: just about everyone agrees this Tour has been thrilling. It has also involved race radios and power meters, so maybe banning those is not the answer.
Yeah, no way we could have figured out that power meters and race radios aren't the sole reason for boring racing before. After all there are no other races than the tdf, where those are used.

In all seriousness though, there are two reasons why this tour is great so far. Alaphilippe being unexpectedly good, which hasn't exactly led to much great racing (mind you, of the three mountain stages we have had so far two have actually been pretty abysmal in terms of racing) but has made the narrative of this tour really interesting. And then the fact that Ineos isn't as dominant as sky has been over the last few years.
The first part has nothing to do with power meters or race radios and is simply something that occurs once in a while. The 2nd one however is very different. A large part of why people wanted a power meter and race radio ban is because that was seen as a way to make sky/ineos less dominant. Now obviously we don't need those meassures if skineos isn't dominant anyway, but I'm very sure they will get back to their former strength sooner rather than later and those calls for rule changes will get loud again. Let's not forget that racing like on stage 15 shouldn't be an exception. It should be the norm as it has been between the US postal and the sky era.

Edit: I just want to mention that I'm not overly enthusiastic about a possible power meter ban anyway. I think it wouldn't really change much. A race radio ban however could indeed mix up things quite a bit.
 
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tobydawq said:
Gigs_98 said:
Salvarani said:
I think what we learned is people will compain no matter what. Doesnt matter how the race is going.
What, why? Who was complaining about this tour?
Just look at the post above. It's not entertaining for the right reasons.
A bit like the 2012 Vuelta, though, the problem is trusting the organisers to take the right lessons out of why the race was entertaining. The 2012 Vuelta was entertaining because of some serious convergence of luck factors - Contador's ban through July and a clearly Wiggins-tailored TT-heavy Tour route meaning Rodríguez focused on Giro and Vuelta that year, plus a Valverde who had underperformed at the Tour and a Froome whose form was fading meant you had an exciting GC battle led by home favourites, two of whom specialised in the short to mid length steep finishes they were serving up ad nauseaum, so the race was far more entertaining than would have been expected. As a consequence, the Vuelta started spamming that format of stage, which guarantees 15-20 minutes of action at the end of each stage but often neuters longer distance moves because there are very few platforms for them (which is ironic when you consider how that race was eventually won) and so many of the final climbs are on garage ramps that mean little incentive exists even for the kind of move Mikel Landa tried on Sunday.

Like the 2012 Vuelta, there has been a real convergence of factors that have combined to make this Tour entertaining: an unexpectedly good home rider at the front, who doesn't specialise in the high mountains and whose team didn't expect him to be in this position, so is weak for race control, and a surprisingly under-strength performance from the defending champions and long-time controllers of the race, mean that no team or rider has really been able to stamp authority on the race. The stage 10 crosswinds effectively resetting a number of the contenders (plus Landa being crashed out causing him to lose time in that stage) has left climbers with the kind of deficits they should have but the meagre TT mileage of recent years hasn't been generating - necessitating attacks from earlier in the climbs (e.g. Pinot) or further than that (e.g. Landa) than would otherwise have been the case. There is, for the first time since at least 2011, more likely 2008, a genuine feeling coming into the final week that we don't actually KNOW who is going to win (Evans was clear favourite after Andy failed to take advantage in the Pyrenees, but then that changed after Galibier), and that breeds intrigue, which makes people want to tune in to find out what happens, rather than know what's going to happen, and check the stage report to saee if it's worth picking up the highlights later, as has all too often be the case when there's a dominant champion, regardless of who that may be.
 
Jul 29, 2016
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Have you ever seen champion to crash 3 times per Tour? If I remember correctly I have seen LA crashing just after the comeback, not 99 - 05 period, same with Contador, who started to crash latter in the carrier when he did not win Tour again. I do not remember Big Mig to crash 91 - 95, even Riis crashed 97 and not 96. Same with Ulrich ... .
 

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