Tour de France 2019

[tristecsinamigos]

Re:

Who of the GC contenders handles heat better? Obviously Bernal would. 2019 is looking like 2003 conditions - days over 40C. This needs to be factored in when discussing possible contenders. Also if the leader's teams are weakened because domestiques wilt in the heat then they will be exposed.

Why "obviously"?

I think he trains mostly at 2000-3000 meters over the sea level when he is in Colombia, around Zipaquira, which is 2650 mts, at a constant temperate weather which never goes beyond 25ºC. He might have the same problem as Nairo.

 

[Scarponi]

Re:

I doubt Moscon will be on fire, either. Basically, team support will probably be excellent if Bernal is a dom. If not, then probably not.

Poels will climb better than the riders sitting 3-10 anyway so there is no stress.

 

[gregrowlerson]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

Come on guys, this was a seriously good climb before, and it's still a seriously good climb now (though definitely overused). PDBF isn't a normal Tour climb. I am not sure how much "waiting" riders can do during the 3rd and 4th kms at around 9.4%. And any flat stretch is barely noticeable. This climb is never going to end in a ten rider sprint. Any GC contender not in top form here will lose thirty seconds, easily.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I don't expect huge differences in that stage, but several questions will be answered. Will Thomas be among the best climbers? What about the riders who come from the Giro: Nibali, Landa and Simon Yates?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

I don't expect huge differences in that stage, but several questions will be answered. Will Thomas be among the best climbers?

If he is then the Tour winner is known. I fully expect G to be up there with the very best.

 

[Jagartrott]

It's pretty sad that a rider who has no results all year can still be considered a favourite for the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

Come on guys, this was a seriously good climb before, and it's still a seriously good climb now (though definitely overused). PDBF isn't a normal Tour climb. I am not sure how much "waiting" riders can do during the 3rd and 4th kms at around 9.4%. And any flat stretch is barely noticeable. This climb is never going to end in a ten rider sprint. Any GC contender not in top form here will lose thirty seconds, easily.

With the climb being longer and more geared toward the final stretch, I think gaps will actually be smaller.

Nobody ever really risks much on such climbs in the first week. Almost all unexpectedly early attacks on MTFs at that stage in a GT are rather easy MTFs where it also flattens out a bit at the end.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

With the climb being longer and more geared toward the final stretch, I think gaps will actually be smaller.

Nobody ever really risks much on such climbs in the first week. Almost all unexpectedly early attacks on MTFs at that stage in a GT are rather easy MTFs where it also flattens out a bit at the end.

Gaps will be pretty big, IMO, but not because of attacks, but because of the Ineos or Astana mountain trains going nuts on the climb.

Then, after the field has been destroyed, their GC leaders can attack in the final k - if they are any good, that is. But they can't all be "bad," surely?

It's pretty sad that a rider who has no results all year can still be considered a favourite for the Tour.

He did get a result, though.

 

[Gigs_98]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

Come on guys, this was a seriously good climb before, and it's still a seriously good climb now (though definitely overused). PDBF isn't a normal Tour climb. I am not sure how much "waiting" riders can do during the 3rd and 4th kms at around 9.4%. And any flat stretch is barely noticeable. This climb is never going to end in a ten rider sprint. Any GC contender not in top form here will lose thirty seconds, easily.

With the climb being longer and more geared toward the final stretch, I think gaps will actually be smaller.

Nobody ever really risks much on such climbs in the first week. Almost all unexpectedly early attacks on MTFs at that stage in a GT are rather easy MTFs where it also flattens out a bit at the end.

Well there was Aru's attack on this very climb two years ago but I generally agree with you. The thing is, the last two kilometers are now basically short flat stretch-20%ramp- short flat stretch-20% ramp. That's just a horrible combination for someone who went early. I think if someone attacks before the final km again it will be on the first 20% ramp but I don't see anything other than riders dropping due to a high pace by ineos before that

 

[Red Rick]

To be honest the 24% gradients will probably only lead to everyone waiting for the final kilometer. Hope I'm wrong but I fear that stage is gonna be a letdown

Come on guys, this was a seriously good climb before, and it's still a seriously good climb now (though definitely overused). PDBF isn't a normal Tour climb. I am not sure how much "waiting" riders can do during the 3rd and 4th kms at around 9.4%. And any flat stretch is barely noticeable. This climb is never going to end in a ten rider sprint. Any GC contender not in top form here will lose thirty seconds, easily.

With the climb being longer and more geared toward the final stretch, I think gaps will actually be smaller.

Nobody ever really risks much on such climbs in the first week. Almost all unexpectedly early attacks on MTFs at that stage in a GT are rather easy MTFs where it also flattens out a bit at the end.

Well there was Aru's attack on this very climb two years ago but I generally agree with you. The thing is, the last two kilometers are now basically short flat stretch-20%ramp- short flat stretch-20% ramp. That's just a horrible combination for someone who went early. I think if someone attacks before the final km again it will be on the first 20% ramp but I don't see anything other than riders dropping due to a high pace by ineos before that

Aru also broke the record despite doing most of the climb himself. Basically he was brutally strong and I'm pretty sure he wasn't afraid of running into a counter.

 

[bambino]

Re:

It's pretty sad that a rider who has no results all year can still be considered a favourite for the Tour.

We have examples of riders being nowhere in the season before Tdf and still being in the form of their life in July. Take in example Nibali 2014. I see no reason not to consider G being in shape a week from now.

 

[Velolover2]

i'm super (maybe unrealistically) optimistic.

You expect a certain someone to win there?

If they come there as a group, I'd expect one of the puncheurs to win the stage. Take your pick there are at least 3 puncheurs at the Tour this year (A Yates, Valverde, and D Martin).

Do you fancy Valverde's chances on stage 3?

As long as the break doesn't stay away and decide the stage. Then yes I do think Valverde has a good chance to win stage 3 if they come to the finish together.

Yates and Martin have no chances if there wouldn't be any action on the steep climb. And I think there will be too many climber-sprinters and puncheurs left for Valverde to win it. I think there is a 75% chance of a very reduced, uphill sprint.

It's still a great stage for Sagan, Matthews, GVA, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski. Perhaps even Naesen, Van Aert and Trentin.

 

[Velolover2]

Honestly, I think La Planche des Belles Filles is the best stage for Valverde. The only stage he can win without being in a break.

A very steep but not long or high mountain.

 

[Frihed89]

On what stage do you think the race will be won?

 

[RedheadDane]

Just a quick "Scandi Battle"

Norway: Five confirmed riders, one more likely.
Denmark: Seven confirmed riders, two more likely.
He-heee!

Sweden: You… just gotta stand over there in the corner.

 

[Cinemaniak]

Re:

Just a quick "Scandi Battle"

Norway: Five confirmed riders, one more likely.
Denmark: Seven confirmed riders, two more likely.
He-heee!

Sweden: You… just gotta stand over there in the corner.

Finland is waiting for Jaakko Hänninen to unleash his raw power in the peloton. But he'll definitely come!
He has even done some cyclocross races to be a hype, along WvA and MvdP

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Just a quick "Scandi Battle"

Norway: Five confirmed riders, one more likely.
Denmark: Seven confirmed riders, two more likely.
He-heee!

Sweden: You… just gotta stand over there in the corner.

Finland is waiting for Jaakko Hänninen to unleash his raw power in the peloton. But he'll definitely come!
He has even done some cyclocross races to be a hype, along WvA and MvdP

Finland is not Scandinavia.

 

[Pantani_lives]

On what stage do you think the race will be won?

I think the two most important days will be stage 13 and 14: the time trial and the finish on the Tourmalet.

 

[Frihed89]

On what stage do you think the race will be won?

I think the two most important days will be stage 13 and 14: the time trial and the finish on the Tourmalet.

So, the Stage 6 climbs won't see any serious action, even the last? It's really steep at the end, but also very early.

 

[bambino]

On what stage do you think the race will be won?

I think the two most important days will be stage 13 and 14: the time trial and the finish on the Tourmalet.

So, the Stage 6 climbs won't see any serious action, even the last? It's really steep at the end, but also very early.

It can level/increase some of the gaps created in TTT, but will most probably not create gaps that would decide anything over TT and higher mountains.

Even dominant Nibali couldn't create more than 15-25 sec in 2014.

 

[Simurgh]

On what stage do you think the race will be won?

I think the two most important days will be stage 13 and 14: the time trial and the finish on the Tourmalet.

So, the Stage 6 climbs won't see any serious action, even the last? It's really steep at the end, but also very early.

Just my 50c: There will be time losses of about 15 seconds, but I will not even declare it a day where you can "lose the Tour", as the saying goes. I think the Vuelta-steep (+20%) ending makes the favorites more likely to wait it out. Perhaps it will even be a ceasefire, especially if INEOS bet on Thomas (who might still miss the last few % fitness because of his crash). If INEOS put their money on Bernal, I think they will set the Train in motion from the bottom of the climb.

 

[Laplaz]

Bahrain-Merida:
Dennis, V. Nibali, Caruso, Colbrelli, Teuns, Tratnik, Mohoric and Garcia Cortina.

 

[Laplaz]

Movistar:
Valverde, Landa, Quintana, Verona, Amador, Oliveira, Erviti and Soler

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lear-homeless-people-from-park-tour-de-france

The clearing of homeless immigrants from a park in Brussels through which the Tour de France will pass next week has led to claims that the municipality is seeking to protect the city’s image when it hosts the Grand Départ.

Belgian police moved about 90 people from Maximilian Park on Friday as authorities made fresh funding available to the city’s homelessness agency, Samusocial, for July.

Volunteers with Civic Platform, a charity working with refugees, claimed the police officers moving people on to the agency’s accommodation had cited the need to prepare for the Tour de France, which is due to start in Brussels on 6 July.

 

[Davesta]

Only once has LPDBF been raced preceded by the Col des Chevreres. It was in '14.

1. Nibali
2. Pinot at 15"
3. Valverde at 20"
4. Peraud st
5. Bardet at 22"
6. TJVG st
7. Porte at 25"
8. Konig at 50"
9. Purito at 52"
10. Nieve at 54"

As Robert already wrote, it's possible to mitigate TTT losses right then and there.

Different finish at PdBF this year, some 150 m wall at the end, up to 24%, serious zigzagging incoming.

Doesn't the regular finish there have that too?

Anyway, stupid gradients in the final hundreds of meters. Yay

1km longer climb this time. Official profile:

Isn't the last 1km or so on a gravel road too?