Tour de France 2020 | Stage 10 (Ile d’Oleron / Le Chateau d’Oleron) – Île de Ré / Saint-Martin-de-Ré, 168,5 km

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I fear that Nizzolo dropping out might swing the advantage back towards Sagan for the green: his absence is unlikely to move Bennett up the rankings, but will lift Sagan one place higher on most stages.
Nizzolo finished ahead of Sagan on only stage 3. I think he would have been a factor in some finishes, but no evidence that he would have had a bigger effect than EBH or Walscheid (though he probably would've done better than Walscheid today).
 
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I fear that Nizzolo dropping out might swing the advantage back towards Sagan for the green: his absence is unlikely to move Bennett up the rankings, but will lift Sagan one place higher on most stages.
a lot will depend on whether Sagan gets up the road on non sprint stages and Bennett doesn’t (or does and then gets outclimbed)

and that in depends on DQS tactics and resources to some extent. how much work are they going to put into controlling Sagan?
 
Is Hugh Carthy ok? I didn't see him crash but he was riding weirdly at the back of the peloton, not just on the last place in the bunch but not even on the wheel of a rider in front of him for much of the time. When the peloton split after a crash, he was overtaken by Guillaume Martin's group but didn't follow, then by Coquard and didn't follow and then by Ewan and still didn't follow. Then he came back and rode as if being in slipstream hurt him.
 
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Is it just me, or does Sagan seem to make heavy contact with someone is just about every sprint these days? Gave Mezgec (I think) a serious bump today, was hitting everyone in that other crosswind stage. Can only be a matter of time before he takes a whole bunch down
 
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Bennett’s a funny character. He seems to lack the arrogance that pretty much every top sprinter has. It’s kind of weird to hear a top sprinter, in green having just won a stage, say that he’s just happy and proud to be competing with Sagan but “there’s a reason why Sagan is three times World Champion and I’m not”.

i mean he’s right, but he probably shouldn’t be able to see it!
 
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Bennett’s a funny character. He seems to lack the arrogance that pretty much every top sprinter has. It’s kind of weird to hear a top sprinter, in green having just won a stage, say that he’s just happy proud to be competing with Sagan but “there’s a reason why Sagan is three times World Champion and I’m not”.

i mean he’s right, but he probably shouldn’t be able to see it!
The boom mike operator was hilarious during his winners interview. He is swishing the mike all over the place to follow Sams mouth
 
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Is it just me, or does Sagan seem to make heavy contact with someone is just about every sprint these days? Gave Mezgec (I think) a serious bump today, was hitting everyone in that other crosswind stage. Can only be a matter of time before he takes a whole bunch down
I have noticed it but I think what he is doing is within the acceptable and basically this happens every sprint stage. I think he may be boxing a little bit more this year because he hasn't really shown in the sprints thus far that he can win them. So other lead out riders and sprinters give him less space than usual. That is also one of the reasons he's been below par in many sprint finishes - most notably stage 7 where he should have won 9 out of 10 times.

As for the Green jersey battle, I can see him gaining points back on Bennett in the coming week simply because he is a lot more versatile than Bennett. However, this might not matter since many intermediate sprints are positioned early in the stages favourizing Bennett.
 
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As for the Green jersey battle, I can see him gaining points back on Bennett in the coming week simply because he is a lot more versatile than Bennett. However, this might not matter since many intermediate sprints are positioned early in the stages favourizing Bennett.
it will be interesting to see how DQS play it. Sagan is of course much more versatile than Bennett, but Bennett is more versatile than other bunch sprinters. Do they try to stop Sagan getting up the road or do they try to send Bennett too?
 
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Bennett’s a funny character. He seems to lack the arrogance that pretty much every top sprinter has. It’s kind of weird to hear a top sprinter, in green having just won a stage, say that he’s just happy and proud to be competing with Sagan but “there’s a reason why Sagan is three times World Champion and I’m not”.

i mean he’s right, but he probably shouldn’t be able to see it!
It's probably a big reason why it's taken him so long to get to win a Tour stage. Not many sprinters with his palmares would have been happy to take a 3-year break from the TdF, for probably the best years of his career, just because the team he broke through to the World Tour with, happened to sign a multiple world champion and legend of the green jersey.
 
I am afraid that Sagan lost "his" jersey with Alaph losing his chances in GS. The only chance of Sagan getting green is scoring much more than Bennett in intermediate sprints it means - going to breakaways.
As green is probably DQS´s main priority now and they do not have to defend Alaph, they will never allow Sagan to go to breakaway where is not Bennett. And if there will be some breakaway without Bennett, they try to eliminate maximum scoring for Sagan.

As the green jersey is the main priority also for Bora, they have to try to find some way how to score. It can turn some otherwise boring stages into exciting ones.

Good luck Bore.
 
I have noticed it but I think what he is doing is within the acceptable and basically this happens every sprint stage. I think he may be boxing a little bit more this year because he hasn't really shown in the sprints thus far that he can win them. So other lead out riders and sprinters give him less space than usual. That is also one of the reasons he's been below par in many sprint finishes - most notably stage 7 where he should have won 9 out of 10 times.

As for the Green jersey battle, I can see him gaining points back on Bennett in the coming week simply because he is a lot more versatile than Bennett. However, this might not matter since many intermediate sprints are positioned early in the stages favourizing Bennett.
He obviously would have finished higher up on stage 7 if his chain hadn't dropped.

Bennett will be able to contest all the remaining intermediates except 13 (and Sagan may not make that one unless he's in the break), so Sagan will have to try to contest the finishes on stages 12 and 14 (while Bennett sits in the gruppetto) to make up ground.

Stage 19 only has 1 categorized climb, but it has a very lumpy profile, and my recollection of visiting the area is that the roads do go up and down a lot. It's definitely a day for the break (mountains the 3 days before, TT the next day), so the question will be if a) Sagan can get in the break and b) Bennett can get in there with him and hold on to the finish.

It really looks like the green may be in question up to the Champs, which would be fantastic.
 
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Most ballsy thing Bora could try is to just try and ride sprinters OOT on stage 13 or 16.
I think working that hard would be even less productive than stage 7. Bennett is a true sprinter, but he's a better climber than Ewan, Greipel, Bol, etc. So he'll still be under the limit, even if some others get cut.

Put another way, if Bennett does come in OTL, it'll most likely be a Formigal-type situation where half the field is OTL, and the organizers end up forced to let them stay in.
 
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It's probably a big reason why it's taken him so long to get to win a Tour stage. Not many sprinters with his palmares would have been happy to take a 3-year break from the TdF, for probably the best years of his career, just because the team he broke through to the World Tour with, happened to sign a multiple world champion and legend of the green jersey.
probably true but it’s noteworthy that Ackermann is in quite a similar situation. unlike the other guys in this race he is an actual peer of Ewan and Bennett, he’s been one of the top sprinters this year and last. And like Bennett last year he’s not even getting the Giro as compensation for the a Tour this year.

it will be interesting to see how Bora handle him. He’s more valuable in sponsorship terms to them than Bennett was as he’s arguably the best German rider. And Sagan doesn’t look like quite his old self in recent times. But Sagan at the Tour is what brings them a huge part of their exposure for the year.
 
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