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Tour de France Tour de France 2020 | Stage 21 (Mantes-la-Jolie - Paris, 122 km)

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All I know is that lot of times in Paris the win is taken by someone who is least predicted before the stage to take it.

Very true.

In the 2000s only stage win of the race in Champs:
2000 Zanini
2001 Svorada
2003 Nazon
2008 Steegmans
2017 Groenewegen
2018 Kristoff

Additionally Hushovd (2006) won prologue but not mass sprint stage and Bennati (2007) who had won from a break earlier in the final week.
 
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So in true 2020 style, neither Bennett, Ewan or Van Aert will win.

entirely possible. lots of people are very very tired. it’s in no way a normal sprint.

in a normal sprint theres like an 80% chance either Ewan or Bennett takes it. Today I’d only really be surprised if it was someone other than those two, Sagan, WVA, Bol, Kristoff. (Now I’ve said that it will probably be some third tier sprinter nobody even remembers is here like Bonifazio or someone)
 
entirely possible. lots of people are very very tired. it’s in no way a normal sprint.

in a normal sprint theres like an 80% chance either Ewan or Bennett takes it. Today I’d only really be surprised if it was someone other than those two, Sagan, WVA, Bol, Kristoff. (Now I’ve said that it will probably be some third tier sprinter nobody even remembers is here like Bonifazio or someone)
What about the world champion? Or Trentin. Mezgec perhaps.
 
entirely possible. lots of people are very very tired. it’s in no way a normal sprint.

in a normal sprint theres like an 80% chance either Ewan or Bennett takes it. Today I’d only really be surprised if it was someone other than those two, Sagan, WVA, Bol, Kristoff. (Now I’ve said that it will probably be some third tier sprinter nobody even remembers is here like Bonifazio or someone)
no idea if he counts as "3rd tier" yet again, but Boasson Hagen usually does well in Paris, and finished 4-4-3-4-5 over the past five years. Maybe he can spring a surprise - although another 5th place is probably more likely ;)
 
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