Tour de France 2020 | Stage 6 (Le Teil - Mont Aigoual, 191 km)

[Blanco]

I agree. Also Trek should have tried something.

Try what? To burn all their men including Porte and Mollema, while Jumbo still has 3 guys left?!

 

[Blanco]

A GT, is a slow burn. How long have you followed cycling?

You actually asked Libertine that?!

 

[IndianCyclist]

Since the strategy appears to be 3rd week, so i am also looking for the last TT stage 20. 30 k of rolling terrain and 6 k finish climb at 8.5%. As per the previous performances, in 30 k rolling the TT specialist will take 2-3 min out of the climbers. On the climb the climbers will take 0.5-1 min out of the TTers(maybe). I expect the TT specialist will have 1-2 min on the climbers.
MTF Stages Stage 13(Start of hostilities), 15(Decisive/Desperate),17(Do or Die) to gain that 1-2 min difference. 15 and 17 are the only long MTFs for the brute force method mano a mano. If they wait till stage 15, Visma will take the tour and there will be a lot of losers without anything to show for a tour for climbers.

 

[Brumdog66]

If suggesting they try to cut the group of contenders from 40 to 20 with 3-4 kilometres of effort from one domestique is forcing the pace, then yes, yes I do. Because the more people you eliminate from contention now, the fewer people you need to worry about later.

I understand maybe jumbo should've tried forcing it to solate Bernal and send Dumoulin up the road with INEOS looking weak on a stage that maybe suits Roglic more, but Higuita and Mas are in no way in contention for this tour, no one as unlikely as them has won in 50 years.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

 

[bob.a.feet]

Jumbo's tactics today were definitely questionable. However, I firmly believe that they have reason to do so - whether it be that they are trying to keep Dumoulin in contention or something entirely different. Jumbo have assembled the best team in the world of cycling, they've dominated their rivals in l'Ain and Dauphine, so it must be assumed that they haven't gone completely brain-dead in a matter of weeks.

Yet it is true that in a GT you eliminate rivals from contention whenever the opportunity presents itself - especially when you are the strongest team in the race. Today, Jumbo failed to do exactly that. Obviously Jumbo understand the importance of that, so why did they not do it? Why did they not even try? They must feel very confident, and I would assume they will begin to drill it at some point. Saturday looks a good day to set a good pace all day, but the Lusette today was a perfect opportunity squandered. Perhaps if they drill it on Saturday all will be forgotten - though Bernal did look vulnerable today.

Again, I can only assume they know what they're doing.

Though I have my doubts.

 

[Salvarani]

How, pray tell, are they tiring each other out by holding figurative trackstands, taking cat.1 climbs at the kind of level that middling domestiques can do breathing through their nose?

You're asking me how long I've been following the sport, but you're coming across like somebody who believes the sport is meant to be built around three weeks of falling backwards as slowly as possible, and see no problem in a péloton which consists entirely of people with the mindset of Louis Meintjes.

You mention this:

Mas, Higuita and others showed weakness today. But they didn't take advantage of the opportunity given, and instead slowed the pace further, meaning not only did they get back, but domestiques for other contenders did too. That's not winning a grand tour by attrition. That's the exact same reason Michele Scarponi and Ivan Basso lost the 2012 Giro to Ryder Hesjedal, by failing to take advantage of the opportunities given, because "it's only week 1" and "saving energy for tomorrow" until there was no tomorrow to save energy for anymore. Riding a slow enough pace that the breakaway gains time and 45 people come in within a few seconds of each other is not attrition. It's the very opposite thereof.

It is not a race of falling backwards, but for some it sure can be. For the real contenders it is about staying in contention and picking their moment. Tire their opponents out physically and mentally. Today was just not that day they were gonna test each other in that way.

Saturday is the day... where what you say should have happened today, is what is hopefully gonna happen. Decisive moves, wont happen, but maybe some testing of the riders you mentioned. Thats the day where the attrition, you speak of will happen. Most likely it will be controlled at a pace by the two biggest teams. I think we will see someone have a bad day, but far from everyone. It will be a hard stage that will be felt nonetheless.

What I am saying is that today matters in the grand scheme of things, though. The attrition will be probably be more felt on Saturday and afterwards, but today still adds up. Like every stage does, some more than others. Whether they rode "hard" or "slow". They still had to get through today. 191km aint nothing. 42km/h is not a slow average speed. Riders did show signs of weaknesses. Maybe not the biggest favorites, but be sure things are going on internally there too on days like this. You also contradicted yourself to the point you was making with that example. Was it attrition today or not? If you point out people that struggle they were most likely riding at a pretty good pace, but maybe just enough for a few to hang on. They will have a debt to pay later, for hanging on.

I dont see it as a missed opportunity if someone struggled today, if so they will most likely struggle again later. I would bet on that at least, in this moment. Gambling today would have most likely been a bust.

 

[topcat]

Since the strategy appears to be 3rd week, so i am also looking for the last TT stage 20. 30 k of rolling terrain and 6 k finish climb at 8.5%. As per the previous performances, in 30 k rolling the TT specialist will take 2-3 min out of the climbers. On the climb the climbers will take 0.5-1 min out of the TTers(maybe). I expect the TT specialist will have 1-2 min on the climbers.
MTF Stages Stage 13(Start of hostilities), 15(Decisive/Desperate),17(Do or Die) to gain that 1-2 min difference. 15 and 17 are the only long MTFs for the brute force method mano a mano. If they wait till stage 15, Visma will take the tour and there will be a lot of losers without anything to show for a tour for climbers.

They'll soft pedal the first 35.5 km of the tt and sprint the last 500m.

 

[BlueRoads]

Try what? To burn all their men including Porte and Mollema, while Jumbo still has 3 guys left?!

Kind of. Or maybe even one of the leaders. Not just them - but why not talk to some other teams, like Movistar with Soler and Valverde... then try to force several attacks, mix things up, create some chaos... maybe it comes to something. It probably won't, but then they can get into breaks and try for stage wins. Otherwise there is a very good chance they will be something like 10th without having any moment in the Tour that you would remember. I'm not saying it's a sure road to success. It's definitely a risk. But one you should take, I'd say.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't see going at a slightly higher tempo as a gamble. Getting rid of some chaff, expending some domestiques. Jumbo already know that they've got a good chance of winning a sprint of the elites. Not to mention that if they caught van Avermaet and Powless, there were bonus seconds at the top of the climb for the taking, which would be an almost risk-free take. Ineos were happy to keep the pace low because obviously Bernal isn't feeling so good, whereas Roglič has shown his card. If stage 8 was tomorrow, then your attrition argument would have more merit to me, because we've seen the péloton frequently nuke a good stage because of fear of a tough stage the next day (see the 2009 Vuelta for the ultimate example, when the Velefique/Calar Alto stage was soft-pedalled by everybody, because of Sierra Nevada and La Pandera in the coming days). But tomorrow's stage is a flat stage. Jumbo's climbing helpers can take it as a day off, just like how people like Jesús Hernández and Dani Navarro used to for Contador. They had nothing to lose from riding a faster tempo to try to shell a few people. People used to defend negative racers like Louis Meintjes and Adam Yates by saying that they were on their limit, they couldn't do anything but follow (they were conveniently always at a limit that meant they could respond to attacks but not make any, natch), but I simply do not buy that the pace Jonathan Castroviejo was tapping out was such that everybody there was on the rivet, because the breakaway actually gained time.

I actually think it's a bit like I mentioned while the stage was still going on, it's like people have become so inured to the Sky/Ineos train of pain that they don't recognise when it's not actually stringing things out, just like in the early 2010s, Sylwester Szmyd had such a reputation as a fearsome climbing domestique because he used to absolutely tear the bunch to shreds for Basso, and when he was tapping out a false rhythm because Basso felt bad, or because he himself was getting older and less capable, everybody still fell into line behind him because his reputation meant they were thinking "if Szmyd's laying down the tempo and I'm sticking with it, I must be on a good day, " so settled in and let him set whatever tempo was suitable for his leader. Perhaps not on Jumbo's part (we know as much from the post-race chat) but I wouldn't be surprised if for some teams that is a factor, and if it had been, say, Trek or Ag2r setting the tempo there, the péloton might have been less willing to just accept the soporific tempo being laid down.

 

[Netserk]

If suggesting they try to cut the group of contenders from 40 to 20 with 3-4 kilometres of effort from one domestique is forcing the pace, then yes, yes I do. Because the more people you eliminate from contention now, the fewer people you need to worry about later.

I think that what we have seen over the past years is somewhat the opposite (for some of the race). The more people in contention the more they will ride defensively. While many more riders are potentially dangerous, more teams have an interest in controlling them. If the GC is still close like this after the Pyrenees, the intermediate stages will be controlled by more teams. To some degree.

I'm mostly disappointed UAE didn't set the pace for a bit (~5 min) instead of have Aru attack. Then see what the situation would be at that point.

 

[Red Rick]

I think that what we have seen over the past years is somewhat the opposite (for some of the race). The more people in contention the more they will ride defensively. While many more riders are potentially dangerous, more teams have an interest in controlling them. If the GC is still close like this after the Pyrenees, the intermediate stages will be controlled by more teams. To some degree.

I'm mostly disappointed UAE didn't set the pace for a bit (~5 min) instead of have Aru attack. Then see what the situation would be at that point.

I'm disappointed in all of them, except for Ineos. Bernal was probably bad. MAL an excuse cause Lutsenko was winning the stage.

 

[Salvarani]

Cool, then we can agree to disagree. We view it differently. As established.

I just wanna add that your examples has so far been from over 8-10 years ago. I dont think it is comparable, for many different reasons. Without getting into another debate about that.

 

[Netserk]

And of course nothing will happen Saturday. Or as much as we saw over Colombière in 2018.

The truth is that this route is vastly overrated. Lots of good stuff in isolation, but the sum is less than its parts. Only stage 10 and 18 are good.

 

[Red Rick]

And of course nothing will happen Saturday. Or as much as we saw over Colombière in 2018.

Day after is no MTF - oh who the *** am I kidding

 

[sir fly]

I'm not buying JV story that today wasn't a stage to try anything 'cause Lusette was far from the finish, and that Ineos tempo was high enough.

 

[Valv.Piti]

So I guess it isnt even worth a watch. Every time im missing a good mountain stage in GTs, im so pumped up to watch it later, but Im not really surprised reading the comments in here. Seems so sad, cycling is not getting more fans after a first week of this (despite the route actually leading up to some potentially interesting racing on a few stages). The pyrenees are a big grief, so it will all come down to the last week apart it seems unless something dramatically happens all of a sudden on Colombiere, Marie Blanque or Puy Mary

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Cool, then we can agree to disagree. We view it differently. As established.

I just wanna add that your examples has so far been from over 8-10 years ago. I dont think it is comparable, for many different reasons. Without getting into another debate about that.

Because for most of the last 8 years, the team with the strongest rider has set a high tempo early on, taken control of the race and never let go.

Not a false tempo and waiting for week 3.

Not riding slowly to avoid wasting energy.

Not soft-pedalling under the auspices of "attrition".

Nibali was out there trying to attack to gain time from stage 2 in 2014. The PDBF MTF on stage 5 in 2017 was contested at tempo with Aru winning. Nairo Quintana was attacking on the flat to win stage 2 in last year's Vuelta. Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali, Nicolas Roche, Romain Bardet and Esteban Cháves were all going around attacking one another with no domestiques left on a descent finish on stage 3 in the 2017 Vuelta.

The current vogue might be for tightly controlled racing but that's because everybody's fallen into line under the spell of a dominant team that has had the power to cow them. Typically, even in week 1, the GC guys try to eliminate people from contention. Occasionally there's an easier MTF like one of those Montevergine stages I dug up earlier, but even then, the very point of that is attrition, as Montevergine is consistent 5% all the way up, the very definition of a tempo climb and not giving the potential platforms to attack from that today's ascent did. Largely, early mountain stages tend to be fought out by a group of 10-15. Even on a very tamely-raced Etna stage in 2018, Yates & Chaves took 30 seconds on everybody, only 10 riders were within that and only another 10 within a minute.

Modern enough references for you?

Because of riding tougher tempos, solely to separate the wheat from the chaff, those tame MTFs and easy mountain stages in week 1 tend to produce much more selectivity than today. Because that's what happens when you set a tempo that's designed around a low-risk strategy. It's not like they were going to blow Roglič up given his form in stage 4, and if Dumoulin radios in and says "knock it off, guys" then at least they tried.

 

[Forever The Best]

Chaves actually was in the breakaway in that Etna stage and Yates attacked near the end and caught him. Chaves was one of the secondary favourites so it was a pretty chaotic stage.

 

[Red Rick]

So I guess it isnt even worth a watch. Every time im missing a good mountain stage in GTs, im so pumped up to watch it later, but Im not really surprised reading the comments in here. Seems so sad, cycling is not getting more fans after a first week of this (despite the route actually leading up to some potentially interesting racing on a few stages). The pyrenees are a big grief, so it will all come down to the last week apart it seems unless something dramatically happens all of a sudden on Colombiere, Marie Blanque or Puy Mary

Literally the only thing interesting to see is the communication between Kwiatkowski and Bernal when sprinting for the line.

 

[Jspear]

Stop your crying. There’s gonna be a great stage tomorrow!!!

 

[Salvarani]

To want to bash a sport and riders like this just begs the question if one even enjoys it.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, bearing in mind I watch it to see races, not group rides, when I see a stage like today's, then no, no I don't. But it's sport. I don't like watching a soccer match that ends 0-0, and I really don't like watching one that ends 6-0. I don't like a cross-country distance race where everybody looks at each other for 49km and then lets Alex Harvey or Petter Northug win the longest races on the calendar in a sprint.

This is a stage which offered potential, but the riders were absolutely intent on not racing. Wasn't there a car race somewhere, like GT3 or somewhere, where the safety car was out, and time was running out on the clock, and the safety car pulled in meaning we'd get a one-lap shootout before the end... only the lead car just backed everybody up at safety car speed and crawled around the last part of the course until the clock ticked down to 0:00, then crossed the line so they didn't have to do another lap as the time had run out and they were handed the win. That's what this stage felt like: the leader of an auto race backing people up after the safety car goes in, only to not actually speed up again.

 

[Rollthedice]

So I guess it isnt even worth a watch. Every time im missing a good mountain stage in GTs, im so pumped up to watch it later, but Im not really surprised reading the comments in here. Seems so sad, cycling is not getting more fans after a first week of this (despite the route actually leading up to some potentially interesting racing on a few stages). The pyrenees are a big grief, so it will all come down to the last week apart it seems unless something dramatically happens all of a sudden on Colombiere, Marie Blanque or Puy Mary

If you watch it maybe you can come up with a plausible answer for two unexplained things that happened today. First, an attack by Aru on Lusette and second a sprint to the line by Alaphilippe from a group of about 30 comprising all the favorites for the fifth place. I will not disclose the outcome of both events.

 

[Salvarani]

I think I realized what the problem is.