Tour de France 2020 | Stage 8 (Gazeres-sur-Geronne - Loudenvielle

[Kangaridoo]

Agreed. Roglic has peaked too early (before Tour start) and will ride defensively to secure top 5.

 

[DFA123]

Great posts. I'm amazed some people are buying this 'didn't want the yellow jersey' bs. Absolutely nothing about the way the stage was raced support the claims.

 

[Gigs_98]

Great posts. I'm amazed some people are buying this 'didn't want the yellow jersey' bs. Absolutely nothing about the way the stage was raced support the claims.

So Primoz, this decision is a bit difficult, we need your input. You can either get the yellow jersey or, hear me out, gift 40 seconds to one of your main rivals. Your call...

 

[topt]

About the whole Roglic situation, I can't be the only one who thinks that today he looked a lot like in the giro a year ago. Closing down moves at first, then not cooperating and never going to the front, resulting in a contender a little further down in the gc gaining a decent chunk of time. I tell you, the reason he didn't follow Pogacar or kept the pace up when he had a gap with Pog and Quintana was because he couldn't. Again, in the giro last year people were also thinking Roglic was just waiting for the proper moment to show his cards (hell even Nibali thought that and in the process threw away a giro win) and only after the third mountain stage or so they realized he wasn't bluffing, he just wasn't strong enough.

Let's go through this. Two days ago JV allowed a 50 men peloton over the Col de la Lusette because they didn't want to attack and therefore thought it smartest to ride as slowly as possible. Today they set the pace for dozens of kilometers, ride fast enough for helper after helper to fall back and they even sacrifice their 2nd gc option to drill the peloton. The plan works, the yellow jersey and crucially last years winner and 2nd biggest favorite Bernal get into difficulty. Pogacar attacks and only Roglic and Quintana follow.
So little recap, if Roglic wants to gain time today absolutely everything has gone in his favor. All his rivals are isolated, his biggest rival dropped and he has a gap with two guys willing to work with him of which one is even quite far behind him in the gc. The situation is perfect. All he has to do now is to either attack and drop the two remaining riders or work together to distance everyone else.

Roglic chooses to do neither. Roglic takes a halfarsed pull, the others regain contact and everything is coming back together. Roglic then allows Pogacar to just ride away. Roglic then allows Porte and Landa to just ride away. Yeah he followed Quintana's attack at the end which led to everyone other than Pog to come back together but that was not Roglic's work. If Quintana doesn't attack there Porte and Landa probably gain 20 seconds as well. If you are really strong and are able to control things you don't ride like that. You can't f#cking tell me that Roglic of all people, after the whole Carapaz story in the 2019 giro, thinks it's the right tactic in this position to gift guys a bit down in the gc time because they don't look that dangerous anyway. You can't f#cking tell me JV rides this way, sacrifices their 2nd gc option, if the plan was to keep the group together. Roglic's shape might be good, but it's not great. He does not have this under control in any way.

well, he said himself he is not in top form; this forum proclaimed him to be, can we all agree now he is not the favorite and JV does not need to work.
oh and BTW who is better than roglic right now ?

 

[Red Rick]

About the whole Roglic situation, I can't be the only one who thinks that today he looked a lot like in the giro a year ago. Closing down moves at first, then not cooperating and never going to the front, resulting in a contender a little further down in the gc gaining a decent chunk of time. I tell you, the reason he didn't follow Pogacar or kept the pace up when he had a gap with Pog and Quintana was because he couldn't. Again, in the giro last year people were also thinking Roglic was just waiting for the proper moment to show his cards (hell even Nibali thought that and in the process threw away a giro win) and only after the third mountain stage or so they realized he wasn't bluffing, he just wasn't strong enough.

Let's go through this. Two days ago JV allowed a 50 men peloton over the Col de la Lusette because they didn't want to attack and therefore thought it smartest to ride as slowly as possible. Today they set the pace for dozens of kilometers, ride fast enough for helper after helper to fall back and they even sacrifice their 2nd gc option to drill the peloton. The plan works, the yellow jersey and crucially last years winner and 2nd biggest favorite Bernal get into difficulty. Pogacar attacks and only Roglic and Quintana follow.
So little recap, if Roglic wants to gain time today absolutely everything has gone in his favor. All his rivals are isolated, his biggest rival dropped and he has a gap with two guys willing to work with him of which one is even quite far behind him in the gc. The situation is perfect. All he has to do now is to either attack and drop the two remaining riders or work together to distance everyone else.

Roglic chooses to do neither. Roglic takes a halfarsed pull, the others regain contact and everything is coming back together. Roglic then allows Pogacar to just ride away. Roglic then allows Porte and Landa to just ride away. Yeah he followed Quintana's attack at the end which led to everyone other than Pog to come back together but that was not Roglic's work. If Quintana doesn't attack there Porte and Landa probably gain 20 seconds as well. If you are really strong and are able to control things you don't ride like that. You can't f#cking tell me that Roglic of all people, after the whole Carapaz story in the 2019 giro, thinks it's the right tactic in this position to gift guys a bit down in the gc time because they don't look that dangerous anyway. You can't f#cking tell me JV rides this way, sacrifices their 2nd gc option, if the plan was to keep the group together. Roglic's shape might be good, but it's not great. He does not have this under control in any way.

It strongly looks like somewhere in the middle IMO. The Giro was a lot more extreme, and you do not set up the choo choo train like that if you really feel bad. Don't think he could've followed Pogacar, but every gap he closed he did so very quickly.

 

[Red Rick]

well, he said himself he is not in top form; this forum proclaimed him to be, can we all agree now he is not the favorite and JV does not need to work.
oh and BTW who is better than roglic right now ?

Looks like Pogacar to me.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I agree Roglic looked absolutely like Giro 2019 Roglic and I couldn't understand why he didn't go for it if his whole team burned themselves up for it.

Could be a very open tour with Bernal also not looking too fantastic

 

[Koronin]

He bridged effortlessly but at that point you just had Pogačar, Roglič and Quintana (who's been riding brilliantly btw) left and a gap to the rest. That's probably the ideal scenario yet he preferred to sit up and let everyone else get back on. The second attack I agree he let go but had they committed to the first one they could have done some major damage to the GC. And Roglič can be confident he can take time off Quintana in the ITT even if it's a MTF on the Planche de belles filles.

I think he didn't want to be in any attack with anyone who was within a few seconds of him and that includes Quintana. Maybe something left over from last year's Vuelta? I don't think he was willing to work with Quintana and it maybe go back to la Vuelta last year. If it had just been him and Pogi, i believe he works with Pogi. Also believe that's why he didn't jump to Pogi the second time Pogi went.

 

[Red Rick]

If anything I think Roglic underestimated Pogacar and Quintana and then decided to abort protocol.

 

[topt]

Looks like Pogacar to me.

Doubtfull

 

[Rollthedice]

So Primoz, this decision is a bit difficult, we need your input. You can either get the yellow jersey or, hear me out, gift 40 seconds to one of your main rivals. Your call...

Still one question remains, if Roglic was not good enough to capitalize on the sacrifice of his team, why did they do it? Roglic was fooling the DSs that he's gonna drop 'em all?

 

[Gargamel35]

Well you guys wanted interesting TdF with many riders fighting for it. Now you have it with not so strong Roglič and you are complaining again

What if Roglič peaks in week 2 or 3 and is still riding himself in form after that crash?

 

[Red Rick]

Still one question remains, if Roglic was not good enough to capitalize on the sacrifice of his team, why did they do it? Roglic was fooling the DSs that he's gonna drop 'em all?

He was busy holding Pogacars beer

 

[bajbar]

I agree Roglic looked absolutely like Giro 2019 Roglic and I couldn't understand why he didn't go for it if his whole team burned themselves up for it.

Could be a very open tour with Bernal also not looking too fantastic

Giro Roglič didn't respond to attacks from the best climbers. He just got dropped every time one came. Giro Roglič looked like a walking zombie in the interviews, not like a cheery lad who is eagerly waiting to buy himself a lollypop and having fun with the press. In the end I don't really care who wins, as long it is a Slovenian hehe. But I still think Rogla has this race firmly under control.

 

[JosephK]

A poster mentioned that maybe Roglic has peaked too early. Could be . . . no one can know for sure. But the season has been so short after getting restarted that I'm not sure about peaking too early. I think Roglic got really banged up in his crash in the Dauphine and still hasn't regained top form.

 

[Red Rick]

Well you guys wanted interesting TdF with many riders fighting for it. Now you have it with not so strong Roglič and you are complaining again

What if Roglič peaks in week 2 or 3 and is still riding himself in form after that crash?

My list in order of me wanting them to win was something like

1. Pinot
2. Dumoulin
3. Roglic

Now look at results and tell me I have nothing to complain

 

[TomLPC]

I like to think Raul Alarcon is holed up in some dingy Portuguese prison cell entirely unimpressed with todays pace.

 

[topt]

I think he didn't want to be in any attack with anyone who was within a few seconds of him and that includes Quintana. Maybe something left over from last year's Vuelta? I don't think he was willing to work with Quintana and it maybe go back to la Vuelta last year. If it had just been him and Pogi, i believe he works with Pogi. Also believe that's why he didn't jump to Pogi the second time Pogi went.

I see it the other way; Pogi didnt want to work with rogla, cause he knew it would be much harder to gain time

 

[Red Rick]

A poster mentioned that maybe Roglic has peaked too early. Could be . . . no one can know for sure. But the season has been so short after getting restarted that I'm not sure about peaking too early. I think Roglic got really banged up in his crash in the Dauphine and still hasn't regained top form.

If you take Giro 2019 as Roglic peaking too early.

Compare stage 4 of that Giro to stage 4 of this Tour.

I think people treat Roglic' Giro as him being way too good in the first half but he barely beat Campenaerts with a mechanical in a pseudo MTT and got badly outpunched by Carapaz in the first week. Roglic was only red hot in the prologue.

 

[topt]

Well you guys wanted interesting TdF with many riders fighting for it. Now you have it with not so strong Roglič and you are complaining again

What if Roglič peaks in week 2 or 3 and is still riding himself in form after that crash?

he he; this, every day this forum finds something to complain about; first it was boring cause of JV train, than it was boring cause JV didnt pull, today JV just sucks

 

[topt]

A poster mentioned that maybe Roglic has peaked too early. Could be . . . no one can know for sure. But the season has been so short after getting restarted that I'm not sure about peaking too early. I think Roglic got really banged up in his crash in the Dauphine and still hasn't regained top form.

this is what roglic is claiming but nobody listens, so now is time for Ineos and Bernal, attack tommorrow or they suck

 

[Gigs_98]

It strongly looks like somewhere in the middle IMO. The Giro was a lot more extreme, and you do not set up the choo choo train like that if you really feel bad. Don't think he could've followed Pogacar, but every gap he closed he did so very quickly.

As I wrote, I don't think he is bad, I just don't think he is great either.

The way he closed down those attacks did indeed look impressive but it's often that riders with a great acceleration are able to follow attacks at first but not to continue the effort. Remember how Yates easily closed down Dumoulin's first attack in Prato Nevoso in 2018? At that point nobody in his right mind would have thought he was about to explode.

Add to that, that Roglic has a pokerface 2nd only to Quintana. People thought Roglic looked absolutely undroppable in the first mountain stages of the giro last year. The whole trophy cabinet story with Nibali happened because after they had lost a minute to Carapaz, Nibali himself thought Roglic was throwing away the giro by not riding harder. Not even Nibali himself realized Roglic was on his limit.

 

[Koronin]

I see it the other way; Pogi didnt want to work with rogla, cause he knew it would be much harder to gain time

Maybe, but it was obvious that specific group of 3 wasn't going to cooperate with each other.

 

[Gargamel35]

he he; this, every day this forum finds something to complain about; first it was boring cause of JV train, than it was boring cause JV didnt pull, today JV just sucks

Yeah. First it was boring because JV train destroys everybody. Then it would be boring if Roglič killed everybody. Now JV train died, Roglič couldn't/didn't want to/was not allowed to go for it so many riders can still win it all and no one happy about that again.

 

[Rollthedice]

If you take Giro 2019 as Roglic peaking too early.

Compare stage 4 of that Giro to stage 4 of this Tour.

I think people treat Roglic' Giro as him being way too good in the first half but he barely beat Campenaerts with a mechanical in a pseudo MTT and got badly outpunched by Carapaz in the first week. Roglic was only red hot in the prologue.

Still surfing on the peak for Romandie.