Tour de France Tour de France 2020

[Red Rick]

The route actually suits Carapaz, if he has recovered from his injury he's a great 2nd option.
Uncle Fester really went on a big Anglo purge, only Rowe is still on the Tour team.

For me the thing with Carapaz is I don't think I know enough about him to know his specific strengths and weaknesses very well other than "mountain gud, TT bed". The other part is I still don't feel like I know how strong he was last Giro, and how that compares to the guys in this Tour. He was the best on San Carlo, then he could sit on Landa the rest of the Giro.

In this field, I have trouble buying Carapaz as a Tour contender on any route. And that's if he's brought to the Tour in top form with a 2ndary leadership role

 

[Krokro]

A team is only as strong as their GC leader(s). I'm not sure if Bernal (and maybe Carapaz) can bring it. I wouldn't be surprised if they are never in the battle for yellow.

I don't know what you really mean but we have numerous examples of the huge benefit brought by an A-team compared to isolated leaders with much weaker domestiques.

It will depend on Bernal backs problems but I think you're a bit harsh on them. They are still top tier riders. I just agree with the fact that both still have to confirm they huge talent, after all last Tour was a weird victory..

 

[Gigs_98]

People really have to differ between rooting against or for people from a certain country and actual like or dislike for it. I'm Austrian so in football I'm always rooting against the Germans. Always did, always will. My grandfather taught me so and so it has basically become a tradition.

Does that mean I have a genuine dislike for Germans? Of course not. It's just that sports often get very boring if you don't have something to root for.

Now I'll admit, Britain and cycling are a bit more complicated as nationalism usually isn't as big a part of it (or at least for me it never was, guess only rooting for Austrians would also be sorta depressing) but I guess it is the very fact that Sky has made cycling about nationalism many cycling fans don't like. If you have a forum that is very multicultural and where the standard is that people root for riders completely independently of nationality, fans who only root for someone for that one reason strike out. In fairness, there are those "nationalistic" members from other countries as well, but it's the quantity in which they suddenly appear when Froome/Thomas/Wiggins do or did well that often annoyed the other forum members who felt like these people weren't actual fans of the sport.

I also think people often confuse disliking Brits with disliking Skineos. I never felt any sort of dislike for the Yates twins and felt like Simon was actually quite a popular Vuelta winner in 18.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

What a great country

Is there a former colony anywhere in the world where it isn‘t the norm to cheer against the former oppressor country at sport? They don’t cheer for France at football in Algeria either. It’s one of the minor overheads of spending centuries plundering, killing and enslaving people around the world!

 

[CyclistAbi]

looking from the Tour perspective. I guess the biggest weakens Ineos had on Critérium du Dauphiné was it was just to easy to isolate Bernal. Here likely they believe somebody like Carapaz could make a difference.

P.S. Carapaz likely being a bit furious about it.

 

[tobydawq]

For me the thing with Carapaz is I don't think I know enough about him to know his specific strengths and weaknesses very well other than "mountain gud, TT bed".

I think his stage wins on Montevergine di Mercogliano, in Frascati and in Zabrze tell that he is a much more explosive rider than most think and that he could be good also in one-day races.

 

[Gigs_98]

For me the thing with Carapaz is I don't think I know enough about him to know his specific strengths and weaknesses very well other than "mountain gud, TT bed". The other part is I still don't feel like I know how strong he was last Giro, and how that compares to the guys in this Tour. He was the best on San Carlo, then he could sit on Landa the rest of the Giro.

In this field, I have trouble buying Carapaz as a Tour contender on any route. And that's if he's brought to the Tour in top form with a 2ndary leadership role

I'd say Carapaz has shown to be relatively explosive at the end of a stage. He kinda resembles Purito in that way although Carapaz seemingly excels on finishes that aren't super steep (looking at Montevergine 2018 or Frascati 2019). As those stages resemble the first two uphill finishes in this tour quite a lot I think he might do very well in the first week which might be exactly the tactical option Ineos wants. Carapaz high up, looking very dangerous for Roglic, with Bernal a bit more in the background so that the tour doesn't just become the JV vs Bernal show.

Aside from that I agree about his favorite status. It's also just that last years giro simply feels like too much of an outlier on his palmares and we still don't even really know how good he was there. The point that he could basically just sit on Landa's wheel for most of the last week is very good and who knows, maybe Landa was actually the strongest rider there (I know, Landa being stronger than his leader, shocking concept). But I at least don't feel like Carapaz was clearly the strongest climber of the giro and so as I don't really consider Landa as a favorite for this tour, I don't really consider Carapaz as one either.

Who knows though. Not a single pre race favorite has no question marks next to him this year, so an outsider might actually take it. Maybe Carapaz can Sastre his way to a tour win.

 

[BlueRoads]

looking from the Tour perspective. I guess the biggest weakens Ineos had on Critérium du Dauphiné was it was just to easy to isolate Bernal. Here likely they believe somebody like Carapaz could make a difference.

P.S. Carapaz likely being a bit furious about it.

I don't think he's furious. He already won the Giro. Who knows how it turns out, maybe he will have to work all the time, but this is also a chance for him for a good Tour placing, so... It's still the Tour. And he's never even done it, has he?

 

[Red Rick]

Is there a former colony anywhere in the world where it isn‘t the norm to cheer against the former oppressor country at sport? They don’t cheer for France at football in Algeria either. It’s one of the minor overheads of spending centuries plundering, killing and enslaving people around the world!

Tbh I'm never sure if we root against Germany because of 1940 or because of 1974

 

[BlueRoads]

Well, I'm German, but with Dutch background. Always hard to root against the Dutch football team for me...

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't think he's furious. He already won the Giro. Who knows how it turns out, maybe he will have to work all the time, but this is also a chance for him for a good Tour placing, so... It's still the Tour. And he's never even done it, has he?

Winning the Giro or being second on the Tour. Being captain on the Giro or being domestique on the Tour. Preparing for the Giro and going to the Tour.

In my opinion Carapaz is not in a very happy place ATM. If they would decide early in the season and agree, then OK, but on such short notice, that in my opinion did made Carapaz angry. Especially as they clearly said Bernal is the captain, hence Carapaz winning this edition of Tour is possible, but not plan A.

 

[Salvarani]

Winning the Giro or being second on the Tour. Being captain on the Giro or being domestique on the Tour. Preparing for the Giro and going to the Tour.

In my opinion Carapaz is not in a very happy place ATM. If they would decide early in the season and agree, then OK, but on such short notice, that in my opinion did made Carapaz angry. Especially as they clearly said Bernal is the captain, hence Carapaz winning this edition of Tour is possible, but not plan A.

It is all speculation.

Who knows, he might have wanted to go to the Tour before the season but had to settle for a defence at Giro of his title.

I think he will welcome the opportunity as a professional and he wont dom from the absolute beginning . It is another card for the team to play tactically, a rider who is also in much better form than others on the roster right now. Makes sense, and he understands that. If he dont, then he will probably not have much of a future on the team.

Im sure his fans in his home country will be thrilled to see him going to the Tour.

 

[Salvarani]

Also how picky can a rider be, when the season and year turned out the way it did.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Could be, but to me it feels like Carapaz went from having a good arrangement for this season to now having a less good one. Considering all that is known already about this season. And IMHO (realistically attacking) a win on the Giro is more. Compared to any other place, minus a win, on the Tour.

 

[Jspear]

Carapaz left Movistar because of leadership issues. Regardless of the type of year that it’s been I’m sure he would rather be leading in the Giro.

Also, with two super teams this year, I feel like the trains will only work for so long. I imagine eventually they will implode with exhaustion from competiting to see who can shred the peloton the fastest. There could be mayhem in the final week.

 

[SafeBet]

How picky can a rider be when he chose to walk away from undisputed leadership and sign for a team with a gazillion GT riders and a proven history of making great riders work as domestiques?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Dark horses, underdogs ... this could end up being a year for them? As indeed the super teams could beat themselves. Just like they did in the pre-Tour season (on Critérium du Dauphiné).

 

[CyclistAbi]

How picky can a rider be when he chose to walk away from undisputed leadership and sign for a team with a gazillion GT riders and a proven history of making great riders work as domestiques?

If it's done on such short notice, very picky.

 

[Arked]

Tbf, I'm not really sure with your last assumption. Castro, Rowe, Van Baarle and K have proven their choochoo skills last year and even lately. But I agree with the fact that this comp is more interesting for the race!

I mean they are choochoo capable if necessary, but I feel they may have different ideas this year

 

[Red Rick]

So whats the status this Tour? I have no idea and I kinda love it, im ready for a big surprise. Obviously it depends mostly on Rogla and Bernal, if Rogla is back to 100%, I cannot see him lose, but...

I think Jumbo has the top 2 favorites at this point. I like Roglic and Dumoulin both, so there's that, otherwise it doesn't look like a particularly exciting Tour to me with the brute strength that Jumbo have shown.

 

[Red Rick]

How picky can a rider be when he chose to walk away from undisputed leadership and sign for a team with a gazillion GT riders and a proven history of making great riders work as domestiques?

I don't think Carapaz signed to be a leader at Ineos, I think he signed to be a domestique for 10x the money he was on at Movistar at the time and signed before the stars aligned and he won the Giro.

 

[topcat]

I think La Vie Claire, I mean Jumbo are going to pound the tour into submission.

 

[BlueRoads]

I think Jumbo has the top 2 favorites at this point. I like Roglic and Dumoulin both, so there's that, otherwise it doesn't look like a particularly exciting Tour to me with the brute strength that Jumbo have shown.

Yes, I think so, too. I find it actually surprising that some people expect a very exciting Tour, when the Dauphiné only came to life after Roglic pulled out with minot injuries. And even then the stage was won by Jumbo.

 

[topcat]

Quintana, if he can heal and peak, is my only hope of a good tour.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I'm surprised that so many people think that Dumoulin will win. I don't see him climbing well enough to even get top 5.