For me the thing with Carapaz is I don't think I know enough about him to know his specific strengths and weaknesses very well other than "mountain gud, TT bed". The other part is I still don't feel like I know how strong he was last Giro, and how that compares to the guys in this Tour. He was the best on San Carlo, then he could sit on Landa the rest of the Giro.The route actually suits Carapaz, if he has recovered from his injury he's a great 2nd option.
Uncle Fester really went on a big Anglo purge, only Rowe is still on the Tour team.
In this field, I have trouble buying Carapaz as a Tour contender on any route. And that's if he's brought to the Tour in top form with a 2ndary leadership role