Tour de France Tour de France 2020

[kiszol]

Like you, I keep looking a this and the daily news updates make it less predictable as each day passes, Is there not an element of which team will have the best help available to their lead riders? If so with Stevie out of the race (VERY sadly from my own perspective) I am not sure that JV has the same strength in depth as Inneos, however that said Inneos do not have the most experienced of team leaders nor sadly Nico any longer, I tend to think 2020 will be one of the least predictable TdF in a very long time and I suspect like millions of us I really cannot wait for the flag to drop.

I think Jumbo is still stronger than Ineos based on the names and its riders has the better form.

Roglic >= Bernal
Dumoulin >= Carapaz
Bennett = Sivakov
Kuss > Amador
Gesink = Kwiatkowski
van Aert > Castroviejo
Tony Martin > Van Baarle
Jansen = Rowe

 

[tobydawq]

I think Jumbo is still stronger than Ineos based on the names and its riders has the better form.

Roglic >= Bernal
Dumoulin >= Carapaz
Bennett = Sivakov
Kuss > Amador
Gesink = Kwiatkowski
van Aert > Castroviejo
Tony Martin > Van Baarle
Jansen = Rowe

Van Baarle is absolutely not inferior to Tony Martin who is the weak link in Jumbo's team but yeah, Jumbo is way better than Ineos overall.

 

[mrgmyers]

Hi Kiszol,
I think your comparison is good I hope it proves to be correct.

 

[ppanther92]

I think Jumbo is still stronger than Ineos based on the names and its riders has the better form.

Roglic ~ Bernal
Dumoulin >= Carapaz
Bennett = Sivakov
Kuss >= Amador
Gesink <= Kwiatkowski
van Aert > Castroviejo
Tony Martin < Van Baarle
Jansen < Rowe

In terms of what do we rate, impact on a succesful GT GC. Then I would rewrite that a bit (see above).

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I think you're overestimating the importance of pure climbers as domestiques. Gesink and Kuss give nothing outside of the climbs.
I would definitely take Amador and Kwiatkowski over them for a 21-stage race. and varied terrain.

 

[tobydawq]

I think you're overestimating the importance of pure climbers as domestiques. Gesink and Kuss give nothing outside of the climbs.
I would definitely take Amador and Kwiatkowski over them for a 21-stage race. and varied terrain.

Kuss I buy but a guy who has raced professionally for 12 years gives nothing outside the climbs? Right...

 

[Kaptain Kool]

So, outside of being old, Gesink is useful for what?

 

[Red Rick]

So, outside of being old, Gesink is useful for what?

Flats, high mountains and everything in between.

 

[Leinster]

Much of the time he lost in teh Dauphine was due to being caught up in a crash on Col de Porte and after due to working for Roglic.

Actually, it's probably not great for Dumoulin if the competition is super dire cause I reckon Jumbo will just give Roglic the go to rip it a few times and put time into everyone while Dumoulin never gets a chance to take time back on Roglic.

If they play the one-two strategy, Dumoulin might be the one who gets to go from long range, where it makes sense to have Roglic be the one who sits on wheels and picks up small chunks of time in the final kms. So for example on a stage like 17 to Villard de Lans, if the first 2 climbs are raced hard enough to put real pressure on the other teams, then with 2 long valleys to come after, the opportunity might come for Tom to go on a long range attack. Other teams will be left looking at each other going "do we wait for more support to arrive, or burn climbers to try and chase down a TT world champion?"

 

[Red Rick]

If they play the one-two strategy, Dumoulin might be the one who gets to go from long range, where it makes sense to have Roglic be the one who sits on wheels and picks up small chunks of time in the final kms. So for example on a stage like 17 to Villard de Lans, if the first 2 climbs are raced hard enough to put real pressure on the other teams, then with 2 long valleys to come after, the opportunity might come for Tom to go on a long range attack. Other teams will be left looking at each other going "do we wait for more support to arrive, or burn climbers to try and chase down a TT world champion?"

I think the leadership situation will be fairly resolved by then with Roglic probably gaining time in the uphill sprints and punchy finishes. The route isn't that tactical imo, though I'm sure a lot of riders would be hesitant to immediately jump onto Dumoulin's wheel.

 

[Leinster]

I think the leadership situation will be fairly resolved by then with Roglic probably gaining time in the uphill sprints and punchy finishes. The route isn't that tactical imo, though I'm sure a lot of riders would be hesitant to immediately jump onto Dumoulin's wheel.

That's obviously a "what if?" situation, and presumes that we've got that far with, say, Bernal or Quintana in yellow, and J-V need to do something to upset the apple cart. If Roglic is leading the race in week 3, they'll be playing it conservative, with Gesink, Bennett and Kuss controlling things on the climbs and Tom in reserve to follow any attacks by GC threats that Primoz can't cover straight away.

 

[bob.a.feet]

If they play the one-two strategy, Dumoulin might be the one who gets to go from long range, where it makes sense to have Roglic be the one who sits on wheels and picks up small chunks of time in the final kms. So for example on a stage like 17 to Villard de Lans, if the first 2 climbs are raced hard enough to put real pressure on the other teams, then with 2 long valleys to come after, the opportunity might come for Tom to go on a long range attack. Other teams will be left looking at each other going "do we wait for more support to arrive, or burn climbers to try and chase down a TT world champion?"

I think maybe a situation where Carapaz attacks and Dumoulin follows. Then Carapaz would have to keep trying to drop Dumoulin or else sit up - Dumoulin would be unlikely to work with him and there's no point in Carapaz dragging him to the line. Could be a great way of Jumbo neutralising attacks once their domestiques run out.

 

[Escarabajo]

So, outside of being old, Gesink is useful for what?

I guess you don't like Gesink. He is useful almost for everything.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I would definitely also say that Kwiato is at least one level above Gesink, but what matters the most are the 1 (2) leaders of the two teams.

 

[kiszol]

I would definitely also say that Kwiato is at least one level above Gesink, but what matters the most are the 1 (2) leaders of the two teams.

Yeah, probably Kwiatkowski is better (not as a rider as that is obvious but a GC helper) than Gesink, and van Baarle can match an aging Tony Martin but all things considered Jumbo is still clearly stronger. This doesn't mean that Bernal (or Pinot, Quintana, etc.) can't win, of course they can, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Carols]

Roglic on FB:
"Did a little spinn yesterday. I honestly thought that I will feel better by now after the crash on saturday @criteriumdudauphine Let's see what upcomming days will bring. I am staying optimistic."

Only 9 days out this isn't good news

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I like Roglic OK but I wouldn't mind removing him from the race for two reasons: The race will be even more unpredictable and Dumoulin won't be tethered by a teammate. Having said that, I'd prefer he start and the team just unleash Dumo.

 

[BlueRoads]

Does not sound great for Roglic. But Jumbo does not need to worry. Wout got this covered.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I guess you don't like Gesink. He is useful almost for everything.

I don't dislike Gesink, Kuss or anyone else. But, when comparing GT domestiques, I would l would rate Kwiatkowski and Amador as more useful.

 

[Breezy1985]

Van Baarle is absolutely not inferior to Tony Martin who is the weak link in Jumbo's team but yeah, Jumbo is way better than Ineos overall.

Hahahaha are you kidding me you think VanB is as good as Tony Martin

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't dislike Gesink, Kuss or anyone else. But, when comparing GT domestiques, I would l would rate Kwiatkowski and Amador as more useful.

Well, if it's not about "general" quality, but about how helpful they can be right now, Kwiatkowski looks hardly great, while Kuss does. By the way Ineos will not have to do the work on the flat, there they only need to be careful with the crosswinds and positioning, otherwise they need some mountaing guys to attack and play their cards. I'm actually excited how they will manage this.

 

[Bonimenier]

I think Jumbo is still stronger than Ineos based on the names and its riders has the better form.

Roglic >= Bernal
Dumoulin >= Carapaz
Bennett = Sivakov
Kuss > Amador
Gesink = Kwiatkowski
van Aert > Castroviejo
Tony Martin > Van Baarle
Jansen = Rowe

It's ridiculous to compare them like that.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Hahahaha are you kidding me you think VanB is as good as Tony Martin

Van Baarle is infinitely better than Tony Martin at this point in their careers

 

[jaylew]

It's ridiculous to compare them like that.

Agreed. And I don't agree with some of the comparisons anyway. For example, Wout may be the better rider but I wouldn't rank him higher than Castro as a Tour dom.

 

[tobydawq]

Hahahaha are you kidding me you think VanB is as good as Tony Martin

Quite a bit better. This is 2020, not 2010.