Tour de France Tour de France 2020

[Red Rick]

I'm surprised that so many people think that Dumoulin will win. I don't see him climbing well enough to even get top 5.

Much of the time he lost in teh Dauphine was due to being caught up in a crash on Col de Porte and after due to working for Roglic.

Actually, it's probably not great for Dumoulin if the competition is super dire cause I reckon Jumbo will just give Roglic the go to rip it a few times and put time into everyone while Dumoulin never gets a chance to take time back on Roglic.

 

[Rollthedice]

The grenadiers have a well-suited team for guerrilla warfare and I think there are a few stages when they can strike, might be the only chance to get Bernal to a reasonable advantage to Roglic or Dumoulin before the TT showdown. Otherwise I fear a very controlled race, Sky flavored Jumbo Dauphine style.

 

[Red Rick]

The grenadiers have a well-suited team for guerrilla warfare and I think there are a few stages when they can strike, might be the only chance to get Bernal to a reasonable advantage to Roglic or Dumoulin before the TT showdown. Otherwise I fear a very controlled race, Sky flavored Jumbo Dauphine style.

What stages are there for guerilla warfare? There's lots of medium mountain stages but they're all backloaded stages which are really controllable.

 

[Rollthedice]

What stages are there for guerilla warfare? There's lots of medium mountain stages but they're all backloaded stages which are really controllable.

OK, maybe not, had a different impression, stage 13 looks maybe interesting and stage 18 where everybody and their mothers should be in the break.

 

[Red Rick]

OK, maybe not, had a different impression, stage 13 looks maybe interesting and stage 18 where everybody and their mothers should be in the break.

Only real ambush I see is attacking before Glieres on stage 18. Maybe stage 16 turns out wonky too

 

[Sciatic]

I think we won’t know to assess if this Is good/bad for Carapaz until we see if the Giro actually happens, if the COVID numbers start or keep rising across Europe.

 

[Gigs_98]

Only real ambush I see is attacking before Glieres on stage 18. Maybe stage 16 turns out wonky too

Nah, stage 16 will be the calm before the storm. 18 might be veeeery interesting though.

Before that, don't think there will be big enough time gaps for anyone meaningful to even attempt an ambush. If the loudenvielle stage is ridden hard enough maybe someone very desperate will try something on the Soudet. But realistically, guys it's the tour. Those sort of things just don't happen there.

 

[Oldermanish]

Only real ambush I see is attacking before Glieres on stage 18. Maybe stage 16 turns out wonky too

Actually I'd agree that Ineos will allow Carapaz to put JV on the defensive. Either that or he'll seize the opportunity given to him if he's mercenary we saw on Movistar. He'd have nothing to lose and everything to gain. This is where I see a Pogacar or similar ally come out. It's a scenario that would be entertaining.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't know what you really mean but we have numerous examples of the huge benefit brought by an A-team compared to isolated leaders with much weaker domestiques.

It will depend on Bernal backs problems but I think you're a bit harsh on them. They are still top tier riders. I just agree with the fact that both still have to confirm they huge talent, after all last Tour was a weird victory..

Yeah, I meant that you can't win if your star rider is clearly a bit below the best riders. No matter the quality of your doms. Not on this TDF course, anyway.

Maybe Bernal will show up in monster form, but going by his Dauphiné... maybe not. Doubt it was just (or mostly) his back, either... Carapaz wasn't even preparing for the Tour, as far as we know. Of course, I'm not writing them off.

 

[rghysens]

Only real ambush I see is attacking before Glieres on stage 18. Maybe stage 16 turns out wonky too

Echelons on stages 5, 10 and 11?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Echelons on stages 5, 10 and 11?

highly unlikely on stage 11. That stage was designed as semi rest day (paraphrased) almost, according to Gouvenou. It avoids open terrain for the most part.

 

[Blanco]

Carapaz left Movistar because of leadership issues.

Oh no, you're wrong, very wrong. He went for the money, and money is what he'll get. Leadership? Well, that didn't start as he expected...

 

[BlueRoads]

I understand the anger of Movistar fans and I'm very far from an Ineos-fan. But Carapaz is 27. This is not his last chance for leadership. In fact, if he decides undisputed leadership is more important to him than money in the future he will still be able to switch teams before he's too old to ride a bike. Had he stayed at Movistar, with their training during the break, who knows in what shape he would be now and if he would be able to compete for anything this season. Well, maybe Soler will win the Giro and then he'll be sorry... But (1st of all I don't expect that to happen and 2nd) he will then still have his own Giro win and a good deal of money.
I'm not saying this is the best that could happen to Carapaz. But it's hardly the worst. Obviously. Otherwise people would not call this a disappointment for Thomas, who would never have competed for the Tour-win in this form, either.

 

[ice&fire]

I understand the anger of Movistar fans and I'm very far from an Ineos-fan. But Carapaz is 27. This is not his last chance for leadership. In fact, if he decides undisputed leadership is more important to him than money in the future he will still be able to switch teams before he's too old to ride a bike. Had he stayed at Movistar, with their training during the break, who knows in what shape he would be now and if he would be able to compete for anything this season. Well, maybe Soler will win the Giro and then he'll be sorry... But (1st of all I don't expect that to happen and 2nd) he will then still have his own Giro win and a good deal of money.
I'm not saying this is the best that could happen to Carapaz. But it's hardly the worst. Obviously. Otherwise people would not call this a disappointment for Thomas, who would never have competed for the Tour-win in this form, either.

Ineos has two leaders less than when they signed Carapaz. He can get leadership without switching teams unless both Sivakov and Sosa go nuclear.

 

[HelloDolly]

Ineos has two leaders less than when they signed Carapaz. He can get leadership without switching teams unless both Sivakov and Sosa go nuclear.

According to Sir Dave Ineos has 3 leaders...Bernal, Thomas and Froome

 

[ice&fire]

According to Sir Dave Ineos has 3 leaders...Bernal, Thomas and Froome

I don't expect Sir Dave saying in public that Froome has become Beloki and Thomas has become Wiggans.

 

[DNP-Old]

Kruijswijk out, will focus on the Giro instead. Blessing in disguise for himself and Jumbo honestly. They can now transit to a two leader system, and the worst of the three will get free reign elsewhere.

 

[DNP-Old]

I understand the anger of Movistar fans and I'm very far from an Ineos-fan. But Carapaz is 27. This is not his last chance for leadership. In fact, if he decides undisputed leadership is more important to him than money in the future he will still be able to switch teams before he's too old to ride a bike. Had he stayed at Movistar, with their training during the break, who knows in what shape he would be now and if he would be able to compete for anything this season. Well, maybe Soler will win the Giro and then he'll be sorry... But (1st of all I don't expect that to happen and 2nd) he will then still have his own Giro win and a good deal of money.
I'm not saying this is the best that could happen to Carapaz. But it's hardly the worst. Obviously. Otherwise people would not call this a disappointment for Thomas, who would never have competed for the Tour-win in this form, either.

The only one responsible for the Carapaz departure is Eusebio Unzue anyway. He could have extended Carapaz after his 4th place in 2018, but instead kept him on the books for a mere 150k/year. That said, Unzue has been swimming in bad decisions for a while now and Movistar might be one of the worst World Tour programs around. They're certainly up there with the likes of Cofidis. Somewhere Unzue missed a turn or two. While most teams of their stature are evolving, Movistar has been in a standstill or even gotten worse. Carpaz leaving was a money as well as a sportive decision.

 

[Zoophonic]

The way I see it Ineos are worried Bernal won’t be fit enough to win and Carapaz is there to give them the best chance to compete for a podium. That’s my view on it all.

 

[Red Rick]

Ineos has two leaders less than when they signed Carapaz. He can get leadership without switching teams unless both Sivakov and Sosa go nuclear.

Ineos had Froome, Thomas, Bernal when they signed Carapaz. If they were also working with Sivakov/Sosa/Hart for the future. It looks less bad now, but I think Carapaz was originally supposed to have much more of a Poels/Nieve/Rosa role than a GT leader.

We'll see if he can replicate that Giro form at Ineos or do better, but if he's suddenly 2nd leader at Ineos it's more due to Ineos shitting the bed than anything else. They've also shown before they really don't mind tanking a Giro/Vuelta bid for just another domestique at the Tour.

 

[search]

The way I see it Ineos are worried Bernal won’t be fit enough to win and Carapaz is there to give them the best chance to compete for a podium. That’s my view on it all.

I would think so too, he'll be a backup option at least. Also Brailsford yesterday said that Carapaz will go for Yellow (same as Bernal)

 

[CyclistAbi]

In my opinion they went with Carapaz as it was just to easy to isolate Bernal in the last race (Critérium du Dauphiné). And they needed to fix that. BUT, Carapaz was not a part of the last race, hard to say if he would make a difference or not.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Kruijswijk out, will focus on the Giro instead. Blessing in disguise for himself and Jumbo honestly. They can now transit to a two leader system, and the worst of the three will get free reign elsewhere.

Shoulder fracture, apparently. More balanced team with Jansen in it, regardless.

Van Aert is now considered to be part of their mountain train. Made no sense to waste him as a flat dom, anyway, except as backup option in case the team needs the extra watts.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Kruijswijk out, will focus on the Giro instead. Blessing in disguise for himself and Jumbo honestly. They can now transit to a two leader system, and the worst of the three will get free reign elsewhere.

Indeed, I thought about this as well. With Bennett, Kuss and Wout performing out of this world atm, this is honestly a much more well rounded team now.

 

[mrgmyers]

I know it is still too early to be sure of anything, and that what I am about to post is dependent upon some assumptions and gross simplifications, but if the 2020 Tour should end up being a Bernal/Roglic match-up, then I think the parcours for the last week lend themselves to some seriously compelling viewing. Stage 16 has a finish that seems to advantage a punchy finisher like Roglic, but Stage 17 would seem to be more for the sustained effort kind of climber that I think Bernal is closer to the model for. And Stage 18 seems to be a fairly unusual design that is going to ask these two riders to do things that are not reliably strengths for them. And then there is the time trial, in which Roglic would have the advantage on the bulk of it, but is the climb at the end long enough for Bernal to take back enough time to compensate for what he lost in the first section? Again, this speculation assumes a number of things, but if the Ineos and Jumbo Visma teams are as evenly matched as seems possible now, and if Bernal and Roglic are the top two riders going in to the last week of the Tour, and if the time difference between the two going in to the last week of the Tour is sufficiently small, I can see a scenario where they alternate putting time into each other in Stages 16 and 17, leaving Stage 18 for them to have at it with no safety net.

I may be dreaming here, but I think this is a realistic scenario.

Like you, I keep looking a this and the daily news updates make it less predictable as each day passes, Is there not an element of which team will have the best help available to their lead riders? If so with Stevie out of the race (VERY sadly from my own perspective) I am not sure that JV has the same strength in depth as Inneos, however that said Inneos do not have the most experienced of team leaders nor sadly Nico any longer, I tend to think 2020 will be one of the least predictable TdF in a very long time and I suspect like millions of us I really cannot wait for the flag to drop.