I mean sure, maybe I should have phrased it better, my point is that people saw JV being stronger than Ineos at the Dauphine and immediately concluded JV is just stronger in general. It's just not that simple.
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Together I think it's just too much
- Ineos' leaders are getting dropped.
- Their team are getting hopelessly outgunned
- Their leaders have the far weaker time trial
On paper it looks like a great team. If they have Pello and Caruso of last year's Giro, Poels L'Angliru, Mohoric of Tour of Deutschland, Valls from the Green Mountain and El Lider Maximo Landani no crashes it might get interesting.
Well, it's not that I would not think Kwiatkowski is not an amazing rider "in general". But he does not seem to be at his best. Hasn't last year. And this year just does not seem any better, although he had said it was his training and goals gone wrong last year.
Jumbo were not just strong at the Dauphiné, they were absolutely dominating in an almost unbelievable way. It was not just one rider, but literally all of them. When the other teams had one rider left they still had four or five. They won 3 of 5 stages with 3 different riders. Even with Kruiswijk out there is not one of their riders who seems out of shape or not ready, apart from Roglic, being heavily bruised. They did not have George Bennett with them who is in top-form himself, but is said to be outclimbed during their camp by van Aert!
In cycling I would never say "this is going to happen" (well, I finally was with Evenepoel in Lombardia, see how that turned out...) or "this is never going to happen". But I can't see how you would not be totally behind the idea that Jumbo looks way superior, even if they brought in Carapaz, who, by the way, was like 8 minutes behind Bennett in Lombardia. I know, three weeks... But the Dauphiné and Lombardia were only two weeks from the Tour, that is not a whole era.
Jumbo had a monster season so far. All of their riders seems to be in tremendous form. It's not just the Dauphine. They won the most races after DQT so far and they are not far behind btw.
I wrote that based on the names AND the current form Jumbo is stronger than Ineos despite the desperate inclusion of Carapaz. I stand by that. On paper Ineos has similar strength but factoring in the form they are much worse.
Btw this is far from the Ineos everyone feared of. That is the one with a peak Froome, Thomas and Bernal, with further flying superdomestiques at their disposal. Froome and Thomas has terrible form and are out and Bernal has some back pain and even not considering that he doesn't seem to be any better than Roglic. Or Dumoulin. Or perhaps even Kuss or Bennett if we speak about climbing only. And Rogla and Dumo will annihilate him in the TT as well.
As for the flying superdoms they have a great Sivakov and that's it. All of the others have mediocre form or no great climbing skill at all.
So Ineos is far from its potential best while Jumbo is right at it, with the only problem on their part is Kruijswijk's loss but the team is extremely strong anyway and it's even more balanced.
I also don't really understand the fear for Carapaz. He hasn't shown all that much either.
90% of it is gonna come down on if Bernal can outclimb both Roglic and Dumoulin hard. If he can't it's gonna be near impossible. Unless they both crash out, it's very hard to see them get beaten. I don't dare to believe in Pinot. And I've never seen it in pretty much any of the other guys there. Yeah Quintana but he's not the same as in the spring.
90% of it is gonna come down on if Bernal can outclimb both Roglic and Dumoulin hard. If he can't it's gonna be near impossible. Unless they both crash out, it's very hard to see them get beaten. I don't dare to believe in Pinot. And I've never seen it in pretty much any of the other guys there. Yeah Quintana but he's not the same as in the spring.
From what we have seen over this season and last is that Bernal is roughly the same as Rogalic and Pinot in the mountains.
I think the only truly blow everyone out of the water climber in this year's TdF is Nairoman
Agreed. I think that Carapaz is kinda underrated on this forum. I would pick him over, say, Pinot any day of the week, for instance. If Carapaz was the designated leader, that is.
Pinot is such a weird case. I never rated him that highly until out of nowhere he was without a doubt the strongest climber in two consecutive tour de france mountain stages, dropping the super hyped up wonderkid Bernal. I'm not convinced Carapaz even with the legs from last years giro would have been able to do that.
Yeah, I agree that Pinot's peak level is higher than Carapaz', but Pinot never seems to get it together for three consecutive weeks (even in one week-races he rarely delivers).
Sunweb made a change to their TdF roster, they are bringing Casper Pedersen instead of Jasha Sütterlin.
He is supposed to ride lead out for Cees Bol on flat stages, and will probably also assist Tiesj Benoot on punchy stages, as he climbed quite well in Poland.
He is supposed to ride lead out for Cees Bol on flat stages, and will probably also assist Tiesj Benoot on punchy stages, as he climbed quite well in Poland.
So... part of me is like; "Oh, cool! Another Dane."
Another part is more; "Eeeh... what happened to the 'keep the bubbles absolutely separate' thing?"
Another part is more; "Eeeh... what happened to the 'keep the bubbles absolutely separate' thing?"
this; I think that Bernal has Roglic in his head; he hasnt beaten him once head to head
Carapaz has the issue there was literally no really good climbing reference for him. On the stages he attacked Roglic and Nibali were goofing around. Then he never had to attack and always had Landa with him.
Pinot on the other hand is a more known entity and it's obviously a shame he couldn't show it in the Alps last year. He did finish in the main gropu in Valloire despite already being injured. Also a shame he didn't nuke it on the Tourmalet earlier.
Carapaz is also the clearly weaker ITTer. Even in the shape of his life his ITT is bang average.
Pinot on the other hand is a more known entity and it's obviously a shame he couldn't show it in the Alps last year. He did finish in the main gropu in Valloire despite already being injured. Also a shame he didn't nuke it on the Tourmalet earlier.
Carapaz is also the clearly weaker ITTer. Even in the shape of his life his ITT is bang average.
Yes he has. In last year's Lombardia. Although Roglič still looked stronger there and was beaten only because when they neutralised his solo attack, he didn't care for places from 2 down.
I'm looking forward to watching the two of them eat Quintana's dust.
Carapaz did beat Roglic and Nibali and won the Giro fair and square. Whether it is due to being the better climber or being tactically astute doesn't really matter. Pinot on the other hand has one Grand Tour podium in 12 starts to his name, and that was six years ago.
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I think Carapaz is being really underrated on this forum. The majority still thinks he got lucky to win the Giro. But the reality is he was very very very strong in that race. You can have Landa, peak Pantani or peak Quintana on Mortirolo, still if you are not strong enough, you won't be able to follow them. But Carapaz stayed with Landa and Nibali.
I'm not saying he is among top favourites to win the Tour. His preparation was far from ideal. But at his peak form he'd definitely have a chance.
I certainly don't think he was lucky to win the Giro. He was the best and won it fair and square. I just have trouble thinking he's ready to podium the biggest race in the world when he wasn't targeting it, particularly in a year when so many guys are.
They should have taken Mathews and one of the climbers. He can do stage wins in 2 GTs in the hillier sprints. Their strategy looks crazy if they want stage wins.
Big Doopie
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my guess is that bernal will need 1.5 mins on dumo and roglic before the final ITT.
pinot would likely need 2 mins.
and that is just to stand a chance (depending, of course on what state of "exhaustion" they get there).
TTs that have climbs in them (as long as it is not crazy gradients) usually provide an opportunity for power riders to make an even greater difference. hinault destroyed zoetemelk by over 3 mins on the Avoriaz ITT in 1979, though one could argue zoetemelk was the better climber... and take rohan dennis's domination on Zwift's Alpe race... all steady power.
pinot would likely need 2 mins.
and that is just to stand a chance (depending, of course on what state of "exhaustion" they get there).
TTs that have climbs in them (as long as it is not crazy gradients) usually provide an opportunity for power riders to make an even greater difference. hinault destroyed zoetemelk by over 3 mins on the Avoriaz ITT in 1979, though one could argue zoetemelk was the better climber... and take rohan dennis's domination on Zwift's Alpe race... all steady power.
Where did I say it wasn't fair and square.
But I think it's nuts to ignore the context. Roglic was sick and almost abandoned the race. Nibali gifted him like 3 minutes. Also was on the right place at the right time when Dumoulin crashed out and won like half a minute that stage too. That changes the entire race. On Lago Serru he put 30 seconds into Majka. Then on Colle San Carlo he gets like half a minute on the climb cause he's stronger, and after the descent 15s turns into 2 minutes cause Nibali was being a bonehead.
With Carapaz' timing and luck, there's a lot of riders who could've won a Giro. Pinot would've won more.
Being strong and being lucky are both needed to win a GT. And sometimes you need more luck than other times. Carapaz was certainly the luckiest in the last few years for me.
Bahrain Merida have chosen well balanced team - Landa has enough support for GC while Colbrelli is a chance to sneak a stage.
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