Tour de France 2021 route rumors

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Looks like two more mountain stages are confirmed:

Le 14 juillet, l’étape reliera Muret au col du Portet en passant par le port de Balès, le col de Peyresourde, Val Louron et le col d’Azet.

Le 15 juillet, l’étape partira de Pau et arrivera à Luz-Ardiden avec au menu le col du Tourmalet.

I guess that means no Bagargui.
Kinda sad, the climbs in French Euskadi should be used more often. #basqueclimbsmatter
 
I feel like we're coming into a time where all the up-and-coming GC guys are going to be strong in the TT anyway; Dumoulin and Roglic of the older guys, Pogacar and Remco, obviously, but also Almeida now after the Giro might come into the reckoning, and guys like Pinot can put in a decent TT from time to time. Along with that, Alaphilippe showed last year that with the right course design, a strong classics rider with good bike handling skills can win an ITT stage, so surely someone like Hirschi can get up there.

I'd never want to go back to the days of "Indurain wins the TT by 3 minutes, so Indurain wins the Tour no matter what anyone else does," but at the same time just one TT of 40kms or less doesn't make a true TdF to me.
I disagree. On a hilly one, you might get less gaps, but a 50k flat time trial will mean someone like Dumoulin or Roglic put minutes into the likes of Pinot, Bernal, Landa, Quintana, Bardet, Yates, Lopez etc. That's a fair chunk of the top GC guys.

A TdF heavy on TT to me means a strong team with a top TTist can strangle the race and whittles down the contenders. You're probably left with Dumoulin and Roglic who are on the same team and Pogacar and then maybe likes of Thomas, Froome can get back to their best. Remco will hopefully be there one day but he's never ridden a GT before, be a bit much to throw him into the TdF for his first try next year.

Also the rest of the supposed route doesn't sound great for guys who lose minutes there to attack if they can
 
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I disagree. On a hilly one, you might get less gaps, but a 50k flat time trial will mean someone like Dumoulin or Roglic put minutes into the likes of Pinot, Bernal, Landa, Quintana, Bardet, Yates, Lopez etc. That's a fair chunk of the top GC guys.

A TdF heavy on TT to me means a strong team with a top TTist can strangle the race and whittles down the contenders. You're probably left with Dumoulin and Roglic who are on the same team and Pogacar and then maybe likes of Thomas, Froome can get back to their best. Remco will hopefully be there one day but he's never ridden a GT before, be a bit much to throw him into the TdF for his first try next year.

Also the rest of the supposed route doesn't sound great for guys who lose minutes there to attack if they can
ITT types and gaps between GC contenders is deffo high on the list of things I'd want to look at in terms of cycling analytics. I also think there's some small differences in rider preferences, and sometimes rolling ITTs seem to get bigger gaps than pure flat ones and sometimes they don't.
 
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Looks like two more mountain stages are confirmed:

Le 14 juillet, l’étape reliera Muret au col du Portet en passant par le port de Balès, le col de Peyresourde, Val Louron et le col d’Azet.

Le 15 juillet, l’étape partira de Pau et arrivera à Luz-Ardiden avec au menu le col du Tourmalet.

Ha, that Portet stage would certainly be the toughest mountain stage in TDF next year. Bales, Peyresourde, Azet and Portet would actutally be a beast of a stage, at least by TFD standards.
 
Don't they always stay inside the autonomous region due to organiser/sponsorship reasons?

If they won't use roads in Navarra, they're probably not likely to cross the French border either.

If Sicard had developed into a worldbeater, it might have been a different story.
Itzulia uses Navarra all the time though?

I mean, Lodosa hosted the ITT in 2018, Pamplona hosted the first stage in 2017, Lesaka in 2016, Urdazubi/Urdax in 2014, Ibardin in 2012, Lekunberri in 2011, Viana in 2010, Villatuerta in 2009... and the Urdax and Ibardin stages also crossed the border into Iparralde.

Most likely is that the issue in the three Iparraldean provinces the most money is in Lapurdi/Labourd, the coastal area, including Hendaia, St-Jean-de-Luz, Biarritz, Anglet and Bayonne (the latter at least historically). These are perhaps parcours-wise less interesting and in Bayonne and Biarritz the big sporting interest is rugby, even if Biarritz Olympique are going through tough times at the moment, a far cry from their glory days of Imanol Harinordoquy as captain and taking on the best in the world representing the Basque country by wearing a giant ikurrina. French Basque identity is often less strong than in northwestern Navarre and in Euskadi proper, which also plays a role. There is a bit more Basque identity in the smaller towns and more isolated provinces, but realistically then it would need the capitals of the inland Iparraldean provinces, Saint-Jean-Piéd-de-Port (Basse-Navarre) or Mauléon-Licharre (Zuberoa) to pay for the race to come to town, and they are somewhat further afield. Hendaia also crops up as an almost everpresent host of the Vuelta al Bidasoa, an important amateur race in the Basque borderlands.
 
I'd quite dislike a 50k flat time trial. I get the idea, the guys who lose loads of time have to attack but when you've got Jumbo or Ineos team strength, it doesn't work imo. Could be a Tour for Dumoulin to target and leave Roglic to go to the Giro
I suspect it will weaken the GC field and strengthen the Giro or the Vuelta - At least the Vuelta is consistent with their ITT's where it's normally a flattish 30 to 35km route around stage 12.
 
I suspect it will weaken the GC field and strengthen the Giro or the Vuelta - At least the Vuelta is consistent with their ITT's where it's normally a flattish 30 to 35km route around stage 12.
That's what I think. Giro in particular depending on the route. Might get likes of Bernal, Landa, Lopez etc focus on that instead of the Tour and have the Vuelta as option 2 for them
 
They didnt do that this year though..

No way Tao has any chance of winning Le Tour, my guess is Carapaz and Bernal for Le Tour, Tao in the Giro. Thomas prolly also Tour *** it.
I think they knew they were huge underdogs for the Tour so they went really big on a backup plan. Sure I think Tao and Carapaz could lead the Giro but surely Bernal and Thomas will be at the Tour. And maybe add Dennis for Tour GC as well because why the *** not
 
Thomas will likely fancy the Tour with the TT. He's one of the strongest there. I could see Bernal and Yates going to the Giro though. Carapaz and Thomas for the Tour. Unless Giro also has a long TT (i've checked no rumours here). Will probably depend on the Giro route, but could see them send an attacking team to the Giro, and the train team to the Tour
 
I think Carapaz will do the Giro he was promised this year, especially considering the ITTs at the Tour. Thomas and Tao will go for the Tour and Bernal will depend on his recovery and what he wants.
 

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