Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 5: Changé – Laval Espace Mayenne, 27.2 km (ITT)

[Rackham]

Right.

Roglic might well squeak out a really good TT today, the form isn't gone instantly after a crash and he's just technically so strong in TTs. I would worry more about the coming days.

And that would just make the whole thing even sadder, right? i.e. put in a decent TT today & then suffer the crash consequences in the mountains would become a slow agonizing "what if it had happened" "if only it hadn't happened" which will continue long after the Tour has finished.

Then Roglic fans will start to sound like Mikel Landa fans... with one key difference: the "what if" & "if only" would be grounded in reality (i.e. Roglic actually was in with a real chance at winning the overall).

Although maybe Pogacar will put everyone out of their misery today & blast the field, i.e. putting a fork in any aspirations Roglic might still have. I'd hate it if he's waiting until week 3 again to go full Planche des Belles Filles mode again.

 

[Red Rick]

If Van Aert has recovered from his injury and he's on form, he should comfortably take this. But looking at his first days, he's not entirely there yet. I thinks his rivals will be Küng, Bissegger and Asgreen. Can't really see anybody else than those 4 taking the win, unless i'm forgetting someone.

SKA, McNulty, Thomas, Pogacar, Kelderman, Porte, Campenaerts, Roglic (?), Alaphilippe, Van der Poel, Uran, Cattaneo... to keep it interesting.

Van Aert never went down did he? I think his lack of fitness is more uphill than TT related.

 

[Rackham]

There are 23 seconds between van Aert & Alaphilippe in favor of the latter, so "if" Julian Alaphilippe is in the same form (or better) as he was in 2019 (i.e. when he blasted G Thomas on a similar TT), I don't see why he wouldn't be in yellow again by the evening.

 

[gregrowlerson]

MVDP at 80-1 seems like good value to me. Maybe he isn't historically great in this discipline, but has he had the incentive to be? I think he has the skills for it, and they say that the yellow jersey gives you wings.

 

[Eclipse]

MVDP at 80-1 seems like good value to me. Maybe he isn't historically great in this discipline, but has he had the incentive to be? I think he has the skills for it, and they say that the yellow jersey gives you wings.

Just don't think he practices enough at the format. If it was shorter and a bit more of a raw power dump perhaps you muscle your way through on raw willpower.

 

[tobydawq]

MVDP at 80-1 seems like good value to me. Maybe he isn't historically great in this discipline, but has he had the incentive to be? I think he has the skills for it, and they say that the yellow jersey gives you wings.

Nah, he isn't winning this one. Yes, he has had incentive to try before, last year's Binckbank as one example.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

on a really good day he might surprise, as in, top 10 maximum. Normally I'd expect him somewhere between 15th and 25/30th.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Fair enough.

I guess then that if he wins that it would be a similar level of surprise to Lutsenko at Dauphne

Of the more favoured riders I also think that Alaphalippe is over the odds, and possibly Uran, though both would prefer a hillier course.

 

[staubsauger]

Question is who holds the yellow jersey after today. If it's Pogacar or WvA and I can see a breakaway being successful on Sunday to Tignes with Ben O'Connor capturing the jersey.

AG2R would certainly defend it proudly while O'Connor might be strong enough to keep it until the Pyrenees.

Would save UAE, Jumbo, Quick Step & Ineos some power to not labor each day.

If Kelderman gets the jersey, he probably wants to keep it. But Bora can't work each day on 2 fronts either!

Fuglsang might be a good tip to get yellow on loan as well if it's not Lutsenko who captures it! But to grant the Dane some time might be more risky.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

How many time trial points has Mathieu van der Poel?

Mathieu van der Poel has accumulated time trial points over his cycling career. The most points were scored in Giro d'Italia | Stage 2 (ITT) (140) and Tour de France | Stage 1 (ITT) (120).

www.procyclingstats.com

wow, MVDP has never done a medium-length ITT up until now. (Let alone a long one.)

Uncharted territory basically, I think Alaphalippe will re-take yellow, though. Van Aert probably not in top shape yet, though I suspect it will be very close.

 

[King Boonen]

I wouldn't be surprised if MVdP pulled one out the bag and finished very high up the leader board.

 

[N4no_O]

Stefan Bissegger for me today ... dai dai dai!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I wouldn't be surprised if MVdP pulled one out the bag and finished very high up the leader board.

still can't see em hold yellow though. He could finish as high as 9th or something and still lose the leaders jersey easily. Such are the differences in such a high end, medium length TT

 

[Red Rick]

I wouldn't be surprised if MVdP pulled one out the bag and finished very high up the leader board.

I'd be surprised if he finished within 1 minute of the winner.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I am interested in how Gaudu fares. With the current state of affairs, he is a genuine contender for the podium.

If we are to accept that Roglic and Thomas can no longer challenge for the win, and that Pogacar, then Carapaz, are much stronger than the remaining contenders, then the third step on the podium is there for anyone. For that reason, the performances of Mas, Quintana and Uran will also be fascinating - though I would say for Quintana the TT is almost irrelevant; if he can find great legs in the mountains he has a great chance, otherwise he does not.

P.S. I do not think that Roglic and Thomas can no longer challenge for the win.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Bissegger and Küng to finish ahead of Wout.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

I wouldn't be surprised if MVdP pulled one out the bag and finished very high up the leader board.

Never say never with MVDP but I dont think he can pull that off

 

[Mayomaniac]

I expect Latour to surprise people with a really solid TT.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

Cyclingnews preview has an odd line: “To give one example, Jumbo-Visma were rumoured on Tuesday morning to be expecting Primož Roglič to lose around 90 seconds to Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates). That was notwithstanding Roglič’s crashes and injuries.” Is this really implying Roglic was expecting to lose 90 seconds to Pogacar before he crashed? That cannot be correct.

hmm that sounds weird. I am a Pogi fan, but not expect him to take even 90 seconds with Roglic injured. Not in a TT that early in the race

 

[Taxus4a]

I can see Wout will take this . Not quite easy, but still ..
About Roglič ... hope for some miracle(s) . Tour will not be the same without him ( or with him but not being at 100 %).
Alla and MVDP ... they will both give everything for yellow.
Pogačar will be just fine. He can wait mountains , third week.
Thomas and Carapaz will fight for Ineos leadership .

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Very very unpredictible TT.

I hope than nodody sayRoglic has not level for le Tour anymore if he continues and he do 7th as Landa did after crashes...Roglis is more injured, anyway

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

Van Aert never went down did he? I think his lack of fitness is more uphill than TT related.

Van Aert has really been focussing on timetrialing since his operation. Also with the olympic TT in mind.
This will likely be his big test.

I expect Bisegger to be the winner, with Kung and VA close and VA taking the yellow.

What ill JV’s plan when he takes the yellow? Will they defend it for a while?

Because that would kinda get against their “we wont work “ strategy?

 

[Taxus4a]

Important day for GC that will condicionate the rest of the race....it is anough distance to see how is averybody eith crashes and lose big time.

 

[WKA311]

I think Thomas will smoke this. His shoulder looks to be fine and this is where he has to gain time. He will be dialed in perfectly.

 

[glassmoon]

Either Thomas or Wout. Rogla not far behind despite his injuries.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I expect Latour to surprise people with a really solid TT.

But he usually puts in a solid ride in a TT, not really a surprise?