Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 7: Vierzon – Le Creusot, 249.1 km

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The Shark is way too hungry for UAE, Ineos, EF, Movistar to give away that amount of time to. They would rather force Pogacar to lose than win? Nibali will make mincemeat of the others in the break over the next few weeks if he has the chance.

I'm not sure 5-6 minutes would be enough for 2021 Nibali to stand a chance against Pog and he won't have close to that at the end of this stage.
 
Last year stage 7 was the first one with any real action too, the maillot vert competition obviously triggered that but you then had some contenders being caught out and teams dithering over how many domestiques to commit with back to back mountain stages to come. This is similar, with back to back mountains at the weekend, UAE don't want to commit too heavily, other GC teams are not willing to help, and they're locked in a game of chicken over controlling this break and allowing people who had been out of contention back in, introducing potential wildcards to the mix and giving several teams other things to work with and/or play for. I think it's vital to put a stage which has some kind of platform for selectivity on the day before the real mountains begin because it creates this kind of uncertainty - although last year they put it after the real mountains began, but the péloton neutralised the mountains.
 
UAE, Ineos, EF, and Movistar refreshing Betfair odds as we speak
Nope, Pogacar still odds-on to win
When Van Aert is at lower odds than Pogacar they will chase
They give Nibali 6 minutes; which gives him a 3 minute advantage on GC leaders, they will regret it. Pogacar likely the only one who could make that time up.

I don’t care how old he is, you never let a former TDF winner back into contention- and Nibali is not just any former winner, he’s probably the smartest tactical GC rider in the peloton, and 2 of the next 3 mtn stages finish after a long descent.
 
They give Nibali 6 minutes; which gives him a 3 minute advantage on GC leaders, they will regret it. Pogacar likely the only one who could make that time up.

I don’t care how old he is, you never let a former TDF winner back into contention- and Nibali is not just any former winner, he’s probably the smartest tactical GC rider in the peloton, and 2 of the next 3 mtn stages finish after a long descent.
they could give Froome 10 minutes and still be ok
 
They give Nibali 6 minutes; which gives him a 3 minute advantage on GC leaders, they will regret it. Pogacar likely the only one who could make that time up.

I don’t care how old he is, you never let a former TDF winner back into contention- and Nibali is not just any former winner, he’s probably the smartest tactical GC rider in the peloton, and 2 of the next 3 mtn stages finish after a long descent.
still TJV will have 3m on Nibs with Wout who I think is able to hold against him. + one TT still as a bonus.