Tour de France Tour de France 2021, Stage 7: Vierzon – Le Creusot, 249.1 km

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That situation was quite different, as that was the final mountain stage. Hard to see WVA and Nibali holding 5 minutes advantage over Carapaz, let along Pogacar.
It’s Nibali. 2 of the next 3 mtn stages are descent finishes. You don’t give a rider that good a large advantage. Nibali is no Andreu Kivilev. He’s probably the smartest tactical GC (if fading) rider in the peloton. If he has a chance to take yellow, you would have to pry it from his cold dead hands.

At the same time, it seems the main group is falling back to the peloton with the 2 ahead.
 
I'm not sure 5-6 minutes would be enough for 2021 Nibali to stand a chance against Pog and he won't have close to that at the end of this stage.
Yeah there are no real GC threats in this break. Nibali or Van Aert holding on for dear life is a risk well worth taking for every team not named UAE. Outside of positioning no one outside of them should be pulling a meter all the way to Le Creusot.
 
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It’s Nibali. 2 of the next 3 mtn stages are descent finishes. You don’t give a rider that good a large advantage. Nibali is no Andreu Kivilev. He’s probably the smartest tactical GC (if fading) rider in the peloton. If he has a chance to take yellow, you would have to pry it from his cold dead hands.

At the same time, it seems the main group is falling back to the peloton with the 2 ahead.
Yeah, when the question arises of whether it's safe to give someone the jersey you don't think in terms of "how good is that guy likely gonna be" but "what's this guys ceiling". If you give Nibali a lead of a few minutes the most likely outcome is, it doesn't matter because he is not the Nibali of 2014 anymore and he hasn't even peaked for this race. But then there is the small chance that maybe, just maybe, he has found his old legs again, and if you give that guy a 3 minute headstart the race is basically over. It's the same reason why I would be slightly nervous to give MvdP a big lead. Sure, he will likely be nowhere once the big mountains start, but then the guy has surprised me so often and has so much raw talent, do I really entirely rule out the chance of him suddenly being really good at limiting his losses in the high mountain?
 
The break is really falling asleep. That one minute gap to Mohoric won't be easy to close and a 5 minute gap to the peloton with 70 km to go is not a safe thing either. They need to get their stuff together.
Some of them are obviously tired after a hard first half, and on the hills no one wants to dig too deep at this point. I'd rather say that with the two up ahead, the rest are more motivated to keep a higher pace.
 
Lol guys Nibali ain't gonna be a GC threat regardless of how this stage goes. In fact I would be mad if he tried, there's no way he can have a good third week after the Giro and he would jeopardize his chances for Tokyo...

Sure that is a conflict for Nibali!

There is absolutely no comparison between having a good performance at the Tour and having a "shot" at the Olympics. IMHO.