Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 14 (Saint-Étienne – Mende, 192.5k)

[Cookster15]

One would expect Pog to take a few seconds and the bonus. The Tour would still be over but we could tell ourselves it's not over till the fat Dane sings. If Pog takes no time, then it's over over. It's too early to say Pog is over the hill. He made a few mistakes but there's no use crying over spilt milk. What can you say about your man Vinnie, well his cup runneth over. Over and out.

Agree, gaps are unlikely to be large enough to make any difference but I don't think its a forgone conclusion yet even if Pog takes no time. But yes Pog would be favored over Vingegaard on this finish because he is the more explosive rider.

 

[RobertCrawley]

That last climb is a leg breaker.

Most assume (I do) that Pog jumps in the last kilometers and takes some seconds from V.

But what if after Pog jumps and can't shake the V, the V goes for it and takes another minute from Pog? It is possible.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Agree, gaps are unlikely to be large enough to make any difference but I don't think its a forgone conclusion yet even if Pog takes no time. But yes Pog would be favored over Vingegaard on this finish because he is the more explosive rider.

V is not bad at the time trial, but if Pog can get the GC gap down to 30 seconds, it's game on.

 

[Lequack]

It's too hot for Pog to do anything. I wonder if racing in 35-40C will become the new normal now.

 

[Cookster15]

That last climb is a leg breaker.

Most assume (I do) that Pog jumps in the last kilometers and takes some seconds from V.

But what if after Pog jumps and can't shake the V, the V goes for it and takes another minute from Pog? It is possible.

The climb is only 2.9k. Can't see how V takes a minute in his wildest dreams. Pog would need to crack but that isn't going to happen without a watts explosion from V on a climb so brief. Most likely is Pog can't shake V and they finish together.

 

[Cookster15]

It's too hot for Pog to do anything. I wonder if racing in 35-40C will become the new normal now.

Science says we are working to limit warming to 1.5C so the answer would be no. 35-40C is a lot more than 1.5C above average temperatures. Is this year hotter than 2003, I recall that was a super hot year?

But you raise a point about Pog in the heat. That might be the issue?

 

[RobertCrawley]

The climb is only 2.9k. Can't see how V takes a minute in his wildest dreams. Pog would need to crack but that isn't going to happen without a watts explosion from V on a climb so brief. Most likely is Pog can't shake V and they finish together.

I'm sure you are right, but we have yet to see a moment of weakness in V this Tour. We have certainly seen a biggie with Pog.

 

[Velolover2]

I think Vingegaard is great on muritos tbh. I can't see Pog dropping him here.

Pog could drop him on an explosive 1 km climb.. not a 3 km slow burner.

 

[Cookster15]

I think Vingegaard is great on muritos tbh. I can't see him dropping him here.

Pog could drop him on an explosive 1 km climb.. not a 3 km slow burner.

3km isn't a slow burner. That is maybe 9 minutes for these guys at well over FTP. Easily doable. But I agree very unlikely to expect Vingegaard to be dropped. But Pog need to keep trying it all adds up in cumulative fatigue and psychologically.

 

[75Driver]

For some reason I get the feeling this stage is going to be very interesting as its one of those sneaky tricky routes. Theres potential for some explosive racing. One can hope anyway.

 

[Velolover2]

3km isn't a slow burner. That is maybe 9 minutes for these guys at well over FTP. Easily doable. But I agree very unlikely to expect Vingegaard to be dropped. But Pog need to keep trying it all adds up in cumulative fatigue and psychologically.

I still think calling a 3 km climb at 10-11% for an "explosive effort" is a bit ambiguous. This climb is one for the climbers, not the puncheurs.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I still think calling a 3 km climb at 10-11% for an "explosive effort" is a bit ambiguous. This climb is one for the climbers, not the puncheurs.

Yep. Even 2011 Gilbert probably ain't holding onto Pogacar here.

 

[gregrowlerson]

This Tour probably isn't going to be won on bonus seconds, and even if it technically was, then that doesn't mean that team energy was used in the most efficient way.

So I don't understand suggestions that UAE should work just to keep a breakaway within striking distance.

UAE should do nothing but save energy with their riders and Pogacar, only making extra efforts when the specific purpose is to put time into Vingegaard, head to head vs. Pogacar.

If the break is 15 minutes clear at the foot of the final climb tonight, so be it. The break should be totally invisible to UAE.

If Pogacar is feeling good, then the team might work for 20kms before the final climb (perhaps up to 50kms before depending on how the team and Pogacar are feeling, and on other factors such as pace setting from other teams).

Majka goes all out on the first km, attempting to reduce the peloton to single figures. Then Pogacar gives it everything he has got. Maybe he gains thirty seconds. Anyway, time gained by properly distancing a rival is time gained in the mental game too.

 

[topcat]

Yep. Even 2011 Gilbert probably ain't holding onto Pogacar here.

2011 Phil beats all. Just ask Pisti. Oh, we can't.

 

[Cookster15]

For some reason I get the feeling this stage is going to be very interesting as its one of those sneaky tricky routes. Theres potential for some explosive racing. One can hope anyway.

You could be right. The other thing we need to keep in mind for the final outcome on GC is these stages, whilst unlikely to result in much time gains, could gradually wear down JV? Then in the coming week we see more opportunities for Pog where it might count?

If Pog claws back to within 30 seconds by the TT he has a shot assuming he doesn’t lose more time. I still think stage 11 was poor decisions by him on the Galibier not a lack of form or climbing shortcomings compared to V.

 

[red_flanders]

3km isn't a slow burner. That is maybe 9 minutes for these guys at well over FTP. Easily doable. But I agree very unlikely to expect Vingegaard to be dropped. But Pog need to keep trying it all adds up in cumulative fatigue and psychologically.

What you’re all saying are decent arguments. They make sense.

But we’re 14 stages into a hard, hard Tour. Things happen, as we saw the other day. ANYTHING can happen at this point.

 

[Oldermanish]

The climb is only 2.9k. Can't see how V takes a minute in his wildest dreams. Pog would need to crack but that isn't going to happen without a watts explosion from V on a climb so brief. Most likely is Pog can't shake V and they finish together.

Tadej is likely to make several attempts on those last back to back to back climbs. If he overdoes it he could lose more than a minute. What happened in Stage 11 could happen again; but it could happen to either of them.

 

[Bolder]

Woods

He's been AWOL.

This suits an in form Gaudu or Yates.

 

[movingtarget]

Another chance for Froome, Meintjes and Pinot ? All depends on what Pogacar does or tries to do.

 

[Miha81]

UAE can't control strong break at the moment and JV does not have to. My opinion is that bonus seconds are out of grabs and even if Pogi attacks, Vigo will be right there to cover it.

Do Ineos have some other plans? They are the ones that could shake things up in my books. Or are they satisfied with podium finish?

 

[Davesta]

He's been AWOL.

This suits an in form Gaudu or Yates.

Woods crashed hard a week or so ago, and is likely still suffering from those injuries…hard to see him doing too much here unfortunately

 

[Red Rick]

Yep. Even 2011 Gilbert probably ain't holding onto Pogacar here.

Do I need more proof that 2011 is overrated?

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Pogi on the Mende?

 

[Cookster15]

I still think calling a 3 km climb at 10-11% for an "explosive effort" is a bit ambiguous. This climb is one for the climbers, not the puncheurs.

Probably true. When they did this in 2005 it was only he cream of the GC in the fight.

 

[Stelvio]

Is this year hotter than 2003, I recall that was a super hot year?

This is for Toulouse, which they will be close to on both stage 15 and 19, comparing daily max temperatures (in °C) for July 1-15 for 2003 and 2022.

Max temp	2003	2022
<25	2 days	1 day
25-29	3 days	1 day
30-34	8 days	8 days
35+	2 days	5 days

Daily average max for 1-15 July of 2003: 30.1 °C
Daily average max for 1-15 July of 2022: 32.2 °C

This year is varm, but in 2003 the heat really happened in August with 12 out of the first 13 days being 37 °C or above in Toulouse.

Sources: 2003, 2022