Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 6 (Binche – Longwy, 219.9k)

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After today, the GC guys will probably take a day off and meet again in Pinotland on Friday. Odds are good for the break tomorrow.

Bad luck or not bad luck, over or not over, Pog clearly is in the driver seat. He's too good, he's too strong, some would say that he's Armstrong. At some point JV will have to go for broke, attack, attack, attack, they have two irons in the fire. Or they will do what Geraint has already done: hire a sorcerer who will stick needles in a Pog doll. That may be their only hope.
Unfortunately, the puncheurs who we would normally expect to give us an exciting finish won't be in the mix: Ala not here, Van Aert gassed after the last two stages, Roglic hurt, and MVDP far below par (though he still might give it a go). Pogacar I think will be in energy-saving mode. If it does not go to the early break, who are the 2nd tier of puncheurs to fight it out? Bettiol, Pidcock, Senechal?
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I expect breakaway to take this one unless TJV starts setting up for VVA to attack at the end (highly unlikely after what we saw yesterday). Pogi will roll with it if necessary but won't attack on his own. Can Ineos shock us and finally put some fire into their racing? Probably not.
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I think this depends on how Jumbo feel. That last categorised climb is setup for them to do their attack like on stage 4. They could go for it there to setup WVA for the stage and maybe take some time on other GC guys.
It´s likely that the break will take this, so the first hour will be interesting to watch!

Because Roglic is hurt and Pogacar is much better in those finishes then Vingegaard it doesn´t make a lot of sense for Jumbo to chase the break GC wise. If they want to have the stage win, of course van Aert is an option, but GC wise it doens´t make sense to chase.. I also don´t think that UAE will chase today for Pogacar. Perhaps tomorrow they will do it..
Nah - Matthews will be in the break, especially seeing they could have won today's stage if they put a rider in the break.
Matthews is not a good breakaway rider, though. He also just said that he expects the new finish to be more selective, and better for him than last time (which wouldn't matter much if he is in the break, where he is quickest anyway). So I'd think they plan to work all day