Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 13: Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier, 137.8k

[Unchained]

Great win,great race and finally helicopter shots worth their weight in gold.and chipped away a few seconds to make everything almost even.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think the visual impression & the form curve is way more important than theories regarding which climb suits who better or what weather is better etc. (i.e. theories born out of past races, not this one). And what we're seeing cannot be perceived as anything other than Pogačar repeatedly dropping Vingegaard on climbs. In hot conditions as well. Cauterets, Puy-de-Dôme & Grand-Colombier have dissimilar profiles yet the net result was the same. 28 + 8 + 8.

Bonis included that's 44 seconds Pog has won back since they summitted over the Tourmalet. I mean all caveats included (I could be wrong etc.) but what I see is a rider (Vingegaard) who has plateaued in terms of form, whilst the other (Pog) has grown into the race & gotten much better since the first 5 stages.

I think it also can’t be understated how serious UAE is taking the heat compared to last year. They didn’t really give Pog the ice vest or cool him with water during the stage previously.

All this points to UAE learning and adapting while so far Jumbo sounded like they thought it would be status quo from last year.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

I think the visual impression & the form curve is way more important than theories regarding which climb suits who better or what weather is better etc. (i.e. theories born out of past races, not this one). And what we're seeing cannot be perceived as anything other than Pogačar repeatedly dropping Vingegaard on climbs. In hot conditions as well. Cauterets, Puy-de-Dôme & Grand-Colombier have dissimilar profiles yet the net result was the same. 28 + 8 + 8.

Bonis included that's 44 seconds Pog has won back since they summitted over the Tourmalet. I mean all caveats included (I could be wrong etc.) but what I see is a rider (Vingegaard) who has plateaued in terms of form, whilst the other (Pog) has grown into the race & gotten much better since the first 5 stages.

Well, but you're violating your own rule here regarding the form curve, no?

Regarding the 28 seconds Pog gained on Stage 6, I'm not sure how that can be viewed as a net positive for Pog given that JV took over a minute on Stage 5. The net benefit was to JV. That Pog's improvement was later in time by a day is not necessarily of consequence. In other words, maybe JV paid a bit of a price on Stage 6 for his effort on Stage 5, but the net result was +36s for JV. Would it really make you view the race dramatically differently were Stages 5 and 6 swapped?

As to the other two stages, "drops" of 8 and 4 seconds really isn't anything. Everyone knows Pog is punchier.

 

[Andy schleck]

Well if Pogačar gets a few more bonus seconds over the next stages and match Vingegård in every single climb plus the time trial he can win the Tour by riding like this.

Very good win for Kwiatkowski showing that he still is a force to be reckon with on a good day. Van Gils also with a great performance. Sad to see Ewan having to abandon the Tour.

Not a very convincing performance by UAE today. They miss a rider like Vine or McNulty in this Tour.

This is remind me so much the tour 2020 when roglic couldn't drop pogacar, and was just trying to gain some time in the last km.
This is not pogacar's style of riding. For some reason he is riding is doing this and not attacking from far in the mountains.

 

[Cookster15]

This is not how pogacar is gonna win the tour. It's better to do just one attack and gain a significant amount of time, than just attack in the last km and win a bunch of seconds because of his good aceleration. This is not gonna work in the next 3 mountain stages.

I think we all know this. But I also think Vingegaard and JV would have preferred if they didn't concede all this time (44 seconds so far). I suspect we haven't seen the best of Pog yet as he came to the race under cooked due to his wrist. No way were JV satisfied with the gap on stage 5 - they tried for more the following day but it backfired.

Pogacar and UAE have had a whole year to think about how to deal with Vingegaard at altitude. Maybe this is physiological and can't be overcome, but maybe not - we are guessing from a small sample size. Vingo and Jumbo might be leaving it too late. What if he loses more time in the ITT and doesn't take a minute on Loze.

 

[JosefK]

A very entertaining stage again, today. I was skeptical about the break midway through, but watching Kwiatkowski forge out and hold on for the win was very cool. Pog was 4 seconds better than Jonas. That's a slight net positive (another 4 bonus seconds included). But this was not Thermonuclear Pog ... and maybe that was by design, considering the next two stages to come. If I had to guess the outcome now between Tadej and Jonas, I would just toss a coin. It's a fantastic TDF, so far.

 

[Rackham]

Well, but you're violating your own rule here regarding the form curve, no?

Regarding the 28 seconds Pog gained on Stage 6, I'm not sure how that can be viewed as a net positive for Pog given that JV took over a minute on Stage 5. The net benefit was to JV. That Pog's improvement was later in time by a day is not necessarily of consequence. In other words, maybe JV paid a bit of a price on Stage 6 for his effort on Stage 5, but the net result was +36s for JV. Would it really make you view the race dramatically differently were Stages 5 and 6 swapped?

As to the other two stages, "drops" of 8 and 4 seconds really isn't anything. Everyone knows Pog is punchier.

Marie Blanque is a key moment though, or more specifically the 'reset' on the Tourmalet the day after. That's where the balance of power shifted & Vingegaard went from gaining time to losing time. 8 days later the dynamic remains the same.

And as it has been stated numerously here, unlike last year Pog is actually dropping Vingegaard in this Tour on the climbs. He never did in the 2022 TdF, i.e. he won sprints but he never gapped him.

Jens Voigt mentioned something during the broadcast which made sense to me, i.e. Vingegaard has been in peak form since the Dauphiné & has levelled out, meanwhile Pog is getting better & better after coming into the Tour without much prior racing. So I think what we're seeing is that simple, i.e. Vingegaard attained a super high level & is stuck at it, whilst Pog simply got better (& probably better than what Jumbo imagined).

In this context, I don't see Vingegaard suddenly gapping Pog like on Marie Blanque again. In fact I expect the opposite to be true. Joux Plane will IMO provide further evidence of this dynamic & Pog's ascendency.

 

[Andy262]

Just watched on catchup. Few wins more deserved than this. Chapeau Kwiato!

 

[KZD]

This is remind me so much the tour 2020 when roglic couldn't drop pogacar, and was just trying to gain some time in the last km.
This is not pogacar's style of riding. For some reason he is riding is doing this and not attacking from far in the mountains.

Well, Le Grand Bornand is not exactly suited to long range attacks due to shallower last kilometers and this year it comes before the proper Alpine stages. Those four alpine stages is where the Tour is going to be won or lost so while we can criticise UAE's tactics today, I think Pogacar did what he had to do.

Great stuff from Pidcock today. Third best from the GC riders and top5 looks increasingly likely.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Well, but you're violating your own rule here regarding the form curve, no?

Regarding the 28 seconds Pog gained on Stage 6, I'm not sure how that can be viewed as a net positive for Pog given that JV took over a minute on Stage 5. The net benefit was to JV. That Pog's improvement was later in time by a day is not necessarily of consequence. In other words, maybe JV paid a bit of a price on Stage 6 for his effort on Stage 5, but the net result was +36s for JV. Would it really make you view the race dramatically differently were Stages 5 and 6 swapped?

As to the other two stages, "drops" of 8 and 4 seconds really isn't anything. Everyone knows Pog is punchier.

And why did Pog have more energy? Since he sat up so the next group could pace. Pog has been saving more energy compared to Vinge considering Vinge has been at the front end on every single stage so far and responding to anything UAE does. Jumbo went for more the next day because they knew they needed more and it came back to bite them. On top of UAE controlling the heat so Pog can better manage it now.

Could Vinge be a little to a lot stronger, yes. But he and the team have been wasting their energy every single stage.

I think we all know this. But I also think Vingegaard and JV would have preferred if they didn't concede all this time (44 seconds so far). I suspect we haven't seen the best of Pog yet as he came to the race under cooked due to his wrist. No way were JV satisfied with the gap on stage 5 - they tried for more the following day but it backfired.

Pogacar and UAE have had a whole year to think about how to deal with Vingegaard at altitude. Maybe this is physiological and can't be overcome, but maybe not - we are guessing from a small sample size. Vingo and Jumbo might be leaving it too late. What if he loses more time in the ITT and doesn't take a minute on Loze.

And a small sample size that included Vinge being over 5 mins behind with a descent coming up and Pog attacking repeatedly on any stage he could. None of which has happened so far.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Could Vinge be a little to a lot stronger, yes. But he and the team have been wasting their energy every single stage.

Which is ironic since Vinge’s supports were stating he didn’t help WVA on stage 2 in order to save his energy for what’s to come. While a very good support argument, Vingegaard has been throwing back in their faces being 1-2 all the way up to the final kilometer every sprint stage and responding to UAE. Now WVA is still searching for a win and attacking like crazy, Jumbo have been using their riders, and Vinge has been losing time. Jumbo needs a win, or they’re looking at a death by thousand cuts.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

As expected, Pog attacked at the end and gained a bit of time over Vinge. It's basically a draw right now between the two mutants. But you know what? UAE burned the team and still couldn't catch Kwiato! Congrats to Michał!

 

[Andy schleck]

I think we all know this. But I also think Vingegaard and JV would have preferred if they didn't concede all this time (44 seconds so far). I suspect we haven't seen the best of Pog yet as he came to the race under cooked due to his wrist. No way were JV satisfied with the gap on stage 5 - they tried for more the following day but it backfired.

Pogacar and UAE have had a whole year to think about how to deal with Vingegaard at altitude. Maybe this is physiological and can't be overcome, but maybe not - we are guessing from a small sample size. Vingo and Jumbo might be leaving it too late. What if he loses more time in the ITT and doesn't take a minute on Loze.

I must admit that pogacar improved his accelerations this year. Clearly he has more explosiveness. In terms of performances in short and long climbs, i think he is in the same shape of the last years.

 

[SHAD0W93]

As expected, Pog attacked at the end and gained a bit of time over Vinge. It's basically a draw right now between the two mutants. But you know what? UAE burned the team and still couldn't catch Kwiato! Congrats to Michał!

Burned everyone but Adam and Majka. Jumbo will probably burn everyone tomorrow and it’ll lead us to a net even Sunday.

Honestly it’s crazy how few DNFs with how hard it’s been raced.

And of course super congrats to Kwiat finally being set free to get his results. It’s a little sad to think what he could have achieved if he stayed at Quickstep or went somewhere to be leader over primarily domestique at Sky.

 

[Salvarani]

Burned everyone but Adam and Majka. Jumbo will probably burn everyone tomorrow and it’ll lead us to a net even Sunday.

Honestly it’s crazy how few DNFs with how hard it’s been raced.

And of course super congrats to Kwiat finally being set free to get his results. It’s a little sad to think what he could have achieved if he stayed at Quickstep or went somewhere to be leader over primarily domestique at Sky.

His own choice.

He chose money and new the role he was signed up to do. Unhappy... he would have left and not renewed.

 

[SHAD0W93]

His own choice.

He chose money and new the role he was signed up to do. Unhappy... he would have left and not renewed.

I never said he was unhappy, he’s shown he’s enjoyed it and the money by staying. It’s sad from a fans perspective considering his talent and hype.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

I do not cheer for Pogicar. I want Jonas to win. My eyes keep telling me that Pog is stronger. Jonas has not been able to match any of his accelerations, and though he loses time slowly, he loses time. Pog appears to be the stronger rider...but Jonas doesn't seem nervous in his interviews. At some point, there will be an attack from enough distance to really matter. I guess we will see what will happen, but from were I sit, Pog is going to win the Tour.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I must admit that pogacar improved his accelerations this year. Clearly he has more explosiveness. In terms of performances in short and long climbs, i think he is in the same shape of the last years.

Time will tell. We will see tomorrow and on Wednesday. Still I think he can win the Tour without significant improvement of his overall climbing level (a slight improvement may be taking place though).

 

[Pippo_San]

When people say "this is not thermonuclear Pog" are watching the same sport I do?
He went like a madman and in 1km he gained like hell on everyone bar Vingo.
I mean should he put a missile on his bike?

Wait he's already the missile. 😁

 

[hayneplane]

For the Stage Win I think UAE lost it by keeping Soler on the front for far too long when it was obvious that he wasn’t setting a strong enough pace to reel in Kwiatkowski in time.

Last climb was ridden not far short of 2 minutes faster than 2020 yet it didn’t really feel like it with still 7/8 riders in the GC group until very near the top.

 

[hayneplane]

When people say "this is not thermonuclear Pog" are watching the same sport I do?
He went like a madman and in 1km he gained like hell on everyone bar Vingo.
I mean should he put a missile on his bike?

Wait he's already the missile. 😁

This was like Pog in Flanders but with 16 km of HC climbing for 42 minutes prior to launching the 🚀.

 

[jmdirt]

Cue broken record: I love it when a rider wins from a break, especially when they attack the hill to drop the break (and hold off the GC guys)!

 

[proffate]

Kwiato looked so casual on that climb while the GC group barely made up time and was dropping mountain goats left and right (Kelderman, Pinot etc).

Vingo definitely peaked too early this year and his announcements at the Dauphine that amounted to "this isn't even my final form" now look like bluster. It's always entertaining to watch a class rider roll up undercooked and use the first week of racing as training for the second and third.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679903052302626821

View: https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1679903052302626821?s=20

Almost afraid for these super skinny guys, they might break something while bear hugging someone much larger than they are.

 

[Oldermanish]

Marie Blanque is a key moment though, or more specifically the 'reset' on the Tourmalet the day after. That's where the balance of power shifted & Vingegaard went from gaining time to losing time. 8 days later the dynamic remains the same.

And as it has been stated numerously here, unlike last year Pog is actually dropping Vingegaard in this Tour on the climbs. He never did in the 2022 TdF, i.e. he won sprints but he never gapped him.

Jens Voigt mentioned something during the broadcast which made sense to me, i.e. Vingegaard has been in peak form since the Dauphiné & has levelled out, meanwhile Pog is getting better & better after coming into the Tour without much prior racing. So I think what we're seeing is that simple, i.e. Vingegaard attained a super high level & is stuck at it, whilst Pog simply got better (& probably better than what Jumbo imagined).

In this context, I don't see Vingegaard suddenly gapping Pog like on Marie Blanque again. In fact I expect the opposite to be true. Joux Plane will IMO provide further evidence of this dynamic & Pog's ascendency.

Pogacar was due to get somewhat better based on his time off. That doesn't mean we're seeing a three-week trend, though. His overall fitness and efforts at altitude will tell the tale. He was smart and opportunistic about getting the small gap and claiming bonus time.
As for today; Jonas has to presume an attack is coming. The seconds lost today were partly from being inattentive and riding sloppily to the point of giving the few gap seconds away. Not being aware that bonus seconds would come into play seems like something he and Sepp should know and JV DS should be putting in their earpiece. If I were Sepp I'd be on Adam's shoulder rather than in front of Tadej. That's a sprint 101 sort of thing; giving an attacker a clear shot and having to wait for your guy to even respond.