Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 15: Les Gets - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, 179.0k

[Cookster15]

Vingegaard is still the yellow jersey. Let's not make hasty assumptions. In the end of the tour, we can conclude if they needed roglic or not in the tour.

I am sensing some doubts. Unlike two weeks ago.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

What is the plural of Nostradamus?

Trick question - Nostradamus is the plural. Singular is Nostradamu.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

What is the plural of Nostradamus?

What we should be asking is what is the future and past tense of Nostradamus?

 

[Rob5091]

Pinot will win this bike race: he has been bluffing all along, it's in the bag my friends. In the bag.

The break will Take it, I'm curious to see the fight between 1-2 and 3-4, and if and how much they will interfere with each other. Jai needs to try something in the final 4 km of the final climb. His podium bid is on the line. And can Tadej Pogacar take yellow? The dude will try, as always, there will be a show.

Pinot will win this bike race? I think it will take WADA and the French Police for that to happen! (which gives a new meaning to "in the bag"!)
Hindley is apparently suffering from his crash so Rodriguez looks good for third spot.

 

[RobertCrawley]

I wonder if Cosnefroy could get in trouble with the comissaires for epically slamming a spectator’s drink at the top of the Joux-Plane. I hope not!! But it seems like alcohol must be a banned substance on the road.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Well, yeah, but that’s Vino we’re talking about.
Him, Merckx and Chuck Norris are the only ones capable of such feats

Actually Hinault won a bunch sprint in Paris once.

 

[Miha81]

If TJV thinks Vinge can not break Pogi they will let the breakaway go to neutralize bonuses.

It will be interesting to see if UAE has any fire power in the legs before the rest day.

 

[Miha81]

Picture likely taken by the photographer on board the moto that blocked Pogi taking 5s.

Somebody looks pissed in the second place

 

[IndianCyclist]

Well, yeah, but that’s Vino we’re talking about.
Him, Merckx and Chuck Norris are the only ones capable of such feats

The body count in John Wick 4 was 100+. So yes he is also capable of doing such a feat.

 

[IndianCyclist]

I think whoever puts in the biggest digs here will lose the time in the time trial, even with the rest day. They’ve been hiding hard every stage and attacking each other, time is going to start leaking.

I am not sure at all. Pog did the 2020 final miracle TT and then stage 6 here. Jonas came close to winning the last TT of 2022 after Hautacam. I donot think we are talking piddling alien, predator, terminator etc of the past, we are talking Godzilla vs Kong Hollywood movie style. They always come back even after being dead and buried. Take nothing for granted

 

[Volderke]

What we should be asking is what is the future and past tense of Nostradamus?

There is only a future tense.

 

[Rackham]

Star Wars, Episode 15.

Tbh I reckon the Master Jedi Tadej Pogačar can use this particular stage to overpower the Sith Lord Jonas Vingegaard. Is the yellow jersey attainable? I do think so.

Separation by more than 6 seconds on the final climb + the bonus seconds from a stage win. UAE knows what it has to do & despite the stratospheric levels of all the Jumbo gregarios, I do expect them to pay a little for their efforts yesterday, i.e. no matter the fact energy supplies appear limitless here there's probably a ceiling which Laporte & co hit yesterday & cannot reproduce on a day-to-day basis without fading, even just a little.

 

[solo80k]

Well, Jumbo was looking strong yesterday but UAE had some answers - first Majka was partially successful in disturbing their pace, then Yates finished Kuss and prepared the Pog's attack. I think this one is for the break but we'll see GC action in the end - Rodriguez can pay for his efforts as well.

 

[tobydawq]

...yet only 2 of the 5 main mountain days went to the early break in 2014, 2 out of 5 in 2013, 2 of 4 in 2012, 0 out of 4 in 2011, 3 out of 5 in 2010, 2 out of 4 in 2009 and 2 out of 4 in 2008. That comes to 13 out of 31 stages, or 41.9%.

The years since then: 2 out of 5 in 2015 (and of the other 3, Nibali and Pinot went early without drawing a reaction from the main GC contenders which I haven't counted for the break), 4 out of 6 in 2016, 2 out of 6 in 2017 (I've counted Barguil's first stage win here), 1 out of 5 in 2018, 4 out of 6 in 2019 (counting the Tignes stage as a win for the GC group because it would certainly have been one had the stage finished), 3 out of 6 in 2020, 3 out of 5 in 2021, 2 out of 6 in 2022 and so far 3 out of 5 this year (counting Hindley for the breakaway because that's where he won from). That comes to 24 out of 50, or 48% - more than in the 2008-14 period. You could argue that the increase in the number of legitimate mountain days (and the decrease in their difficulty) plays a role here, but in any case there is no evidence addition of bonus seconds incentivizes GC riders to go for stages - if anything, to the contrary.

I actually did have an inkling this might be the case and really wanted to answer Netserk "There was no stupid play for bonuses" as what I was missing those Tours.

I should have kept it at that, I guess. I don't mind bonus seconds, I think it's fair that explosivity gets awarded. And it certainly will incentivise catching breaks IF the GC situation is really tight which it has never really been since 2008 apart from 2010, 2011, 2019 and 2020.

 

[tobydawq]

I actually did have an inkling this might be the case and really wanted to answer Netserk "There was no stupid play for bonuses" as what I was missing those Tours.

I should have kept it at that, I guess. I don't mind bonus seconds, I think it's fair that explosivity gets awarded. And it certainly will incentivise catching breaks IF the GC situation is really tight which it has never really been since 2008 apart from 2010, 2011, 2019 and 2020.

One thing that should absolutely be changed, though, is that it should be 10-5-2 or 10-6-4. It's outright bizarre that the gap between third and fourth is bigger than between second and third. It makes no sense that Pogacar would have benefitted from having Adam Yates finish in front of himself and Vingegaard instead of behind yesterday.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I think whoever puts in the biggest digs here will lose the time in the time trial, even with the rest day. They’ve been hiding hard every stage and attacking each other, time is going to start leaking.

There's a rest day in-between, so only Gaudu will suffer from it.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Star Wars, Episode 15.

Tbh I reckon the Master Jedi Tadej Pogačar can use this particular stage to overpower the Sith Lord Jonas Vingegaard. Is the yellow jersey attainable? I do think so.

It's more like Episode 1 Anakin vs. Jar Jar Binks.

 

[Netserk]

I actually did have an inkling this might be the case and really wanted to answer Netserk "There was no stupid play for bonuses" as what I was missing those Tours.

I should have kept it at that, I guess. I don't mind bonus seconds, I think it's fair that explosivity gets awarded. And it certainly will incentivise catching breaks IF the GC situation is really tight which it has never really been since 2008 apart from 2010, 2011, 2019 and 2020.

So what is it that would have played out differently in the 2008, 2010 and 2011 Tour for the better if there were bonuses? Because I don’t think 2019 and 2020 show that to be an important difference.

 

[gunara]

6-3-1 is enough. I like bonus seconds to be enough to be the decider when called for, but not more than that. And all this hill top sprint bonuses are fun for awhile then it feels it suits novel races more than the biggest race on earth.

 

[Netserk]

6-3-1 is enough. I like bonus seconds to be enough to be the decider when called for, but not more than that. And all this hill top sprint bonuses are fun for awhile then it feels it suits novel races more than the biggest race on earth.

The greatest race in the world should be won by dropping your rival or by overtaking him in an ITT. If you can’t create a gap, you shouldn’t be rewarded.

 

[Savant12]

Not sure how the GC battle plays out. Both UAE and Jumbo doms have done a lot of work in previous stages. I guess a Yates/Pog duo could work over Vingo, just like what happened to Pog with Vingo and Roglic.

 

[danielovichdk2]

The greatest race in the world should be won by dropping your rival or by overtaking him in an ITT. If you can’t create a gap, you shouldn’t be rewarded.

Which bonus seconds is all about. Gap = seconds

 

[tobydawq]

So what is it that would have played out differently in the 2008, 2010 and 2011 Tour for the better if there were bonuses? Because I don’t think 2019 and 2020 show that to be an important difference.

I might as well ask you the same thing. How would the other years have been different for the better without bonus seconds?

Obviously, in the grand scheme of things, it very rarely will have an influence but it's a nice detail to consider during the stages.

You don't like them of course because why would you...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

In this year's race, I think the bonus seconds are making the racing worse. Pogačar is already capable of gaining time in an uphill finish, and now he gets an extra reward for being more explosive. They also seem to make Vingegaard even less interested in taking risks, because it's more costly to get dropped before the line, while Pogačar knows he can just wait until the last kilometre to make his move and he'll win 99.5/100 times.

 

[tobydawq]

Purito might have won a Giro instead of Hesjedal, though.