Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 15: Les Gets - Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, 179.0k

[Krzysztof_O]

UAE kinda needs to pace. Perfect opportunity to take a few seconds + bonus. With a rest day and a TT inbetween they should have enough time to recover.

They failed spectacularly to catch Kwiatkowski yesterday and Pog also unexpectedly failed to win the stage today. They may drill it tomorrow indeed to get that stage and a few seconds and the TT is a rest for all guys except Pog and maybe Yates.

 

[Big Doopie]

Jumbo has a bit of a quandary:

1. Pace like crazy in order to play long game in hoping that they are wearing Pog out (frankly not as sure as them that vingo is superior in that aspect).
2. Let a big break go and take all the bonuses (and maybe lose a couple of seconds at the MTF.

I would go with option 2.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Bernal?

What he means is that Vingegaard hasn't won a stage, while Pogacar, Rodriguez, Hindley, and Yates (the rest of the top 5) have.

 

[Skalman]

Someone from the break will win this one

 

[Jungle Cycle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680271408146833408

View: https://twitter.com/BenoitCosnefroy/status/1680271408146833408

 

[Põhja Konn]

If Jumbo truly believe that recovery is an asset for Vingegaard against Pog, they should go for it tomorrow. The stage is more than hard enough to make use of that advantage, if it is indeed there.

 

[jono]

If Jumbo truly believe that recovery is an asset for Vingegaard against Pog, they should go for it tomorrow. The stage is more than hard enough to make use of that advantage, if it is indeed there.

Will be interesting to know that they believe at this point. The second of consecutive hard days (stage 6) was the only time Pogacar managed to gain significant time on Vingegaard, with Jumbo and Vingegaard "going for it".

 

[Panda Claws]

This set-up, losing only small time in the mountains, would have been perfect for Evenepoel who could have gained massive time in the TT.

A shame he didn't elect to participate.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This set-up, losing only small time in the mountains, would have been perfect for Evenepoel who could have gained massive time in the TT.

A shame he didn't elect to participate.

Remco would win this Tour by x minutes.

 

[dobrien]

This set-up, losing only small time in the mountains, would have been perfect for Evenepoel who could have gained massive time in the TT.

A shame he didn't elect to participate.

I seriously doubt he would have had a chance at hanging with Pog and Jonas on the climbs, and very doubtful he'd gain 'massive' time on those two with only a 22k TT. Im a fan but I think Remco would be having a very difficult time at the moment if he'd have chosen to ride.

 

[Vudy]

I seriously doubt he would have had a chance at hanging with Pog and Jonas on the climbs, and very doubtful he'd gain 'massive' time on those two with only a 22k TT. Im a fan but I think Remco would be having a very difficult time at the moment if he'd have chosen to ride.

Remco is nowhere near the level of Pogi and Vingo. Only TT would see him take time.

 

[Red Rick]

GC Kuss from the breakaway

 

[rghysens]

Remco is nowhere near the level of Pogi and Vingo. Only TT would see him take time.

A flat 40km itt in the first week will, not so sure about a 22km mtt at the start of week 3.

 

[Boehmand]

This stage has Pogacar written all over it, but I question if it will be for the stage win.

I think all the climbers Jumbo prevented from getting away today, will have a red hot go tomorrow, which means bonus seconds are gone and it just becomes about what gap he can create on Vingegaard, because I think UAE has spent too much today to be able to keep the break within reach.

For the same reason I expect Jumbo to send guys in the break.

I would not be surprised in Pogacar can edge out 10 seconds on Vingegaard on the last climb, so we get them on completely equal time ahead of the TT on Tuesday... eat your heart out Lemond andFignon

For the stage win:
Woods, Latour, Skjelmose, Pinot, Landa, Barguil, Neilands, Jorgenson, Johannesen. Powless and Ciccone will be there too, but spend too much going for the mountain sprints.

 

[D. Pecher]

With no HC in it, unless TJV shells the peloton again this looks like a group of escapees - Zimmermann & Co.

 

[dobrien]

Remco is nowhere near the level of Pogi and Vingo. Only TT would see him take time.

I believe we agree on this.

 

[dobrien]

GC Kuss from the breakaway

Think so? I can't see them letting Sepp ride anywhere outside a 2 meter radius of Jonas but who knows, maybe they try to mix it up.

 

[staubsauger]

Ciccone must be clinically dead after today. Johannessen might have saved energy once it became clear the move is going nowhere.

Normally given their time distance and with their TT being abysmal Gall & Gaudu could make a move and even be allowed to do so. At least in the case of Gaudu. Somehow I doubt they take the risk though.

Could be a rather weak break with the likes of Zimmermann who is a decent climber after all. It's too much up and down for Latour probably.

Which team theoretically could send 2-3 riders up front in assistance? AG2R, UnoX, Francaise des Jeux & Lidl?

 

[Cookster15]

I would not be surprised in Pogacar can edge out 10 seconds on Vingegaard on the last climb, so we get them on completely equal time ahead of the TT on Tuesday... eat your heart out Lemond andFignon

I would be surprised if Pog can eek out 10 seconds. If he does it would mean he is getting stronger and that would bode well for his recovery and the TT. But I am dreaming.

 

[Boehmand]

Normally given their time distance and with their TT being abysmal Gall & Gaudu could make a move and even be allowed to do so. At least in the case of Gaudu. Somehow I doubt they take the risk though.

You may be right, I should have included them in my prediction for the stage win, but just now realised they are in a sweetspot with a lot of time between Bilbao and Martin, where neither Bahrain nor Cofidis will feel the need to chase (I don't count Ineos riding for Pidcock, they are all for Rodriguez now).

Another interesting battle will be Rodriguez/Hindley, as Hindley needs to take time because Rodriguez could conceivably take up to a minute on him in the TT, but that battle probably doesn't kick off until we hit the cat. 2 towards the end.

We could very well see a 3-tiered race tomorrow: GC win, GC 3rd and stage, where neither group cares about the other two.

 

[RobertCrawley]

I expect Jumbo to make it hard again on this stage and attack. It will be a test of who has better powers of recovery. I'm sure Jumbo is betting it's Jonas.

 

[Cookster15]

I expect Jumbo to make it hard again on this stage and attack. It will be a test of who has better powers of recovery. I'm sure Jumbo is betting it's Jonas.

I am sure too. But I am not sure Jumbo will be proven right.

 

[D. Pecher]

Especially since UAE had still someone at the very end to lead out the sprint for Pogacar while all of Jumbo-Visma's Doms had gone poof by that point. If anything, I'd think the TJUV-doms are the ones who'll have a recovery problem after this bloodbath today.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I expect Jumbo to make it hard again on this stage and attack. It will be a test of who has better powers of recovery. I'm sure Jumbo is betting it's Jonas.

I don’t know. It was great Vinge didn’t let the elastic break and even gained time for them but UAE blew them up and kicked them off their train plan while making Kuss work for longer. Majka and Adam completely derailed them and it didn’t look like they expected that.

 

[Boehmand]

Just listening to a Jens Voigt comment in Danish newspaper B.T.

He is saying it's not entirely unrealistic, that we will see them both in a break on the Champs-Elysees for the bonus seconds on the line

It's of course far fetched, because he (and we all) know very well, that Alpecin, Trek, Jayco, Soudal, Cofidis, etc., will completely deny them the possibility of staying away, but imagine if it is that close in the end, that we actually get to see a stage 21 ridden like that