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Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 3: Amorebieta-Etxano - Bayonne/Baiona, 193.5k

After an entertaining opening weekend, the Tour trades the Spanish for the French Basque Country, and the hills for what should be a sprint stage.

Profile

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Map
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The route
The stage starts from Amorebieta-Etxano, a regular host of cycling races (most recently in this year's Itzulia) and the birthplace of Beñat Intxausti. The start of the stage is tricky, with Côte de Trabakua...
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...and Côte de Milloi.
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After this, the riders head along the beautiful Basque coast through the intermediate sprint in Deba.
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This seaside village is also the start of the next climb, Col d'Itziar.
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The final categorised climb of the day, Côte d'Orioko Benta, is the hardest of the day. It's possible to drop (some of) the sprinters here, but with there being 90k to go, not that many climbing sprinters and it being very early in the race, it's unlikely we get major action here. It's the first 7.3k of the profile below
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After heading through Donostia/San Sebastián once more, the riders soon cross the border into France. Here, they immediately reach an uncategorised climb which the PCS profile is WAY off about.
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Following another flattish section, the riders reach the point where the route has been changed. The new finale is a little harder, but it's still easy climbing at 20k to go - difficult to change the face of the stage here.
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Final kilometres
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Lumpy and, at times, technical. The roundabouts until 2.1k to go are all on separated four-lane roads and should therefore not cause too much trouble, but at 2k to go there's a 180-degree turn.
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From here, the road rises, especially after the next turn. Heavier sprinters might lose position here, especially with the peloton already being strung out from both the big turn just before and the narrowing at this one.
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The remainder of the stage consists of a bunch of curves between 15 and 70 degrees. There is also no true final straight, instead the road heads slightly uphill and to the right for the final ~160 metres.
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Bayonne/Baiona is the capital of the French Basque Country, noted for its historic city centre surrounded by Vauban's fortifications. It hosts the Tour for the first time since Tyler Hamilton's raid twenty years ago.
 
looks like they changed something within the final 25k (old profile had 187k, new one 193k). Is this included in your route description already, @Devil's Elbow ?

According to Meeus, Gronewegen told him that he doesn't expect a sprint, btw.
Yes:
Following another flattish section, the riders reach the point where the route has been changed. The new finale is a little harder, but it's still easy climbing at 20k to go - difficult to change the face of the stage here.
 
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I have a different opinion to you. Of course if MVP gives Philipsen a lead out to the final 100 metres as he did in one stage in Belgium, you don't have time to get off Philipsen's wheel - Anyway both Groenewegen and Cavendish are unsure if the stage will end in a mass bunch sprint.

It's not illegal to launch your sprint before all leadout riders are done with their job.
 
For sure Soudal, Alpecin, Lotto, Jayco, Astana - and possibly Trek and Intermarche - will work to control whatever break goes away.

Break might not get to go until the intermediate sprint 66 K in - it depends how big the break is - 3-4 guys get to sail away, 8 do not.

Also the polkadots are not in play, because only Pogacar could catch Powless, with maximum 7 points on the stage.

Thus I think we will see a break of "nobodies", that get 5-6 minutes fairly quickly after the intermediate sprint, but they are then slowly reeled back in the last 80 K for the bunch sprint.
 
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