Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

[Potomac]

UAE might give the yellow jersey away. I can hardly believe they want to defend it for the whole three weeks.

Some candidates for the breakaway: Powless, Chaves, Pinot, Martin, Barguil, Mohoric, Jungels, Aranburu, Jorgensen, Martinez...

I think you're right, and other teams want to find out.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Yes, Benoot and Van Baarle should cover breaks. Maybe Van Aert as well. It's more important to have a good rider in the break tomorrow than the day after.

I bet Wout "that doesn't work for me, brother!" Van Aert will try to go in the breakaway.

 

[Red Rick]

If Kuss isn't there on Marie Blanque/has a bad day UAE should send Adam Yates on the attack while Pogacar sits on Vingegaard's wheel.

Which is all the more reason for Vingegaard to blast it.

 

[Didinho]

Jumbo to get in the breakaway, UAE riding to prevent that. Alpecin riding untill the intermediate to gain maximum points there. Climbers trying for the break and potential yellow jersey. It's gonna be chaos.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Why would Pogačar attack here? I think just taking the bonus seconds should be enough, unless you think he has some sort of giant disadvantage compared to here on even bigger climbs, which I think is an exaggeration.

Because he's Pogacar, most attacking guy in cycling. I also think that sticking to Vinge's wheel and going for bonuses (and final stage win) is plausible tactic but who knows what happens.

As for climbs duration this years PN showed again that Pog was superior on shorter climbs but couldn't drop his rivals on the longest Coyolle. But it's not only about single climb length but intensity of consecutive climbs - the harder it's on consecutive climbs and the more vertical meters the better for Vingegaard.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

UAE seems to be a team that is always chasing the break, and with bonus seconds both on top of Marie Blanque (right?) and the finish it does make sense to chase.

I can see a similarly scenario to stage 1. Pog takes the bonus ahead of Vingegaard, then Adam Yates (and one or two other guys attacks on the plateau, beginning of downhill or at the bottom) and then Vingegaard will wait for Kelderman/Kuss and let Yates gain another 10-30 seconds.

 

[ice&fire]

Easy decision. Wait for Kelderman to set pace.

There's some chance of rain, so it's waiting for Kelderman to put on his rainjacket

 

[Mayomaniac]

Which is all the more reason for Vingegaard to blast it.

Yeah, you're not wrong on that one. It's better to be the hammer than the anvil.

 

[Big Doopie]

I would like that battle, as I think Yates would win it. Jumbo otoh should absolutely put a Benoot in the break.

What should the other Benoot do?

 

[Aimar16]

I fear riders will be saving themselves for Thursdays stage...

Yeah, there is no reason for anyone in the GC group to do crazy things tomorrow. Stage 6 is a better opportunity.

 

[Andy schleck]

No way it goes 1v1 and Vingegaard refuses to pull. Van Aert isn't gonna be around.

Vingegaard to drop everyone on Marie Blanque and win solo. I don't think it makes sense to wait.

If that is the plan on jumbo for tomorrow, they sould make the race hard on soudet and ichere.

 

[Red Rick]

IMO there's this paradigm that Pogacar is better at 20 minute climbs, when the only H2Hs of last year on such climbs were basically 6.1-6.2 W/kg for 15-18 minutes followed by a massive final 1km sprint. Marie Blanque is consistently very hard for 16 minutes, I do not fancy Pogacar over Vingegaard at all there.

 

[theyoungest]

No way it goes 1v1 and Vingegaard refuses to pull. Van Aert isn't gonna be around.

Vingegaard to drop everyone on Marie Blanque and win solo. I don't think it makes sense to wait.

It's still 19 k after the top... even if Vingo manages to drop Pogi, which would already be surprising this early in the race, he won't take more than 20 seconds or so. And Adam Yates won't be too far behind either. I don't see him staying away solo.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Do we have rain tomorrow?

 

[Red Rick]

It's still 19 k after the top... even if Vingo manages to drop Pogi, which would already be surprising this early in the race, he won't take more than 20 seconds or so. And Adam Yates won't be too far behind either. I don't see him staying away solo.

If Vingegaard puts 20s into Pogacar, Yates is gonna be 40 seconds behind and too dead for Pogacar to wait for.

 

[Jagartrott]

I think tomorrow is going to be a big day. The final climb looks actually hard. Plus I think it's going to rain. I think we have enough evidence now to say Pogi is better when it rains or at least when it is not quite so hot. Think back to 2021 when he attacked on the weekend in the Alps, even though the stages there were not the hardest of the route, and put in so much time and then didn't manage to drop Vingegaard and Carapaz in the rest of the route when it was much hotter and then struggle in Tokyo which was mega hot even though it was perfect route for him. Then last year he struggled because it was the biggest heat wave ever, and he looked a lot better on the cobbles and opening TT in Denmark when it was not so hot. Plus how he's always so good in the spring when it's not so hot. I think he knows that he will not get many rainy mountain stages and so he will go all-out beast mode. I reckon tomorrow and Thursday will be like stage 8/9 from the 2021 Tour and then Jonas will maybe take some time back in the rest of the Tour, especially on Col de la Loze he will drop Pogi big time but I think Pogi will just cling on to the overall

It's going to be properly hot this weekend. If he's better in cooler weather, Pogacar should thus try something tomorrow. Probably by sending someone in the break who can pace on the descent and flat after Marie Blanque.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nothing will happen. Breakaway will take it. If breakaway is controlled, more bonus for Pogacar. Many riders that are good enough will go on the break. This one is a big opportunity.

 

[Cookster15]

If Vingegaard puts 20s into Pogacar, Yates is gonna be 40 seconds behind and too dead for Pogacar to wait for.

I can't see this. I think (hope) you are underestimating Pogacar's level and form. I am not very concerned about his wrist now, he seems very sharp for a guy nursing a painful wrist? If Vingegaard can't put any time into Pog on this stage then he needs to try on Cauterets but that is a less suitable climb. Realistically, I think only Loze suits Vingegaard more.

 

[Andy schleck]

If Kuss isn't there on Marie Blanque/has a bad day UAE should send Adam Yates on the attack while Pogacar sits on Vingegaard's wheel.

Kelderman should have more responsability to be there to "cover" adam yates than kuss.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

IMO there's this paradigm that Pogacar is better at 20 minute climbs, when the only H2Hs of last year on such climbs were basically 6.1-6.2 W/kg for 15-18 minutes followed by a massive final 1km sprint. Marie Blanque is consistently very hard for 16 minutes, I do not fancy Pogacar over Vingegaard at all there.

And I don't fancy Vinge over Pog either. Pogacar's best numbers on 20-25-minutes climbs (i.e. 6.5-6.6 w/kg) have never been beaten by Vingegaard but OTOH there is some evidence that Vinge is better on 40-minutes or longer climbs. You had a prove in PN, where Pog dropped Vinge on shorter climbs but couldn't do it on the longest one on the stage in between (even though their relative form was similar. Look at Pog's best performances - almost all of them on climbs shorter than 30 minutes (with median likely around 20 minutes). I think Pogacar is exceptional at efforts slightly above the anaerobic threshold, maybe due to his lactate clearance. Vinge is also great there but he is probably better than Pog on stages with a lot of climbing and repeated, long efforts (his physique of a pure climber helps, his accumulated fatigue is probably smaller)

 

[Netserk]

Kelderman should have more responsability to be there to "cover" adam yates than kuss.

I don’t understand why Kuss didn’t just coast home the first two stages. Wake him up when it counts.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I bet Wout "that doesn't work for me, brother!" Van Aert will try to go in the breakaway.

Honestly WVA might be able to pull off the mustache as well.

 

[Salvarani]

I don’t understand why Kuss didn’t just coast home the first two stages. Wake him up when it counts.

They are a bit nervous at Jumbo. Like today, with Vingegaard being in second wheel during most of the final.

Sure, it is good to stay out of trouble but it is still a big effort for everyone involved and in some ways... it is asking for trouble by fighting that hard for it.

Anyway, some difficult stages coming up for the remainder of the first week. Hopefully some exciting racing and entertainment.

 

[Izzyeviel]

I don’t understand why Kuss didn’t just coast home the first two stages. Wake him up when it counts.

well he's only ridden one stage of the Giro this season, he needs to warm up.

 

[will-10]

Wout to drop some sub-top climbers in the break on the Marie Blanque and win by a minute