Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

[gregrowlerson]

Reasons why very little should happen:
It's stage 5.
Stage 6 is a MTF.
Pogacar has already tried twice to gap Vingegaard on more suitable climbs (at least in theory) and failed.

One thing that strikes me is that the team leaders seem far more superior than their domestiques now (the big 6 type philosophy), and that perhaps it is this factor which is producing more exciting racing, making it seem like team numbers have been reduced greatly in recent years (though from 9 to 8 they haven't really). I remember stages where Porte and Poels appeared to be almost as strong as Froome (and as strong as rivals), or when Azevedo or Heras took Armstrong away from everyone bar his strongest rival. But now it seems like Pogacar or Vingegaard can stomp on their pedals whenever they like and tear the peloton to shreds. Apart from Mcnulty's one off incredible ride last year, support riders don't seem to be as close to as strong as the leaders.

 

[DNP-Old]

Pogacar has already tried twice to gap Vingegaard on more suitable climbs (at least in theory) and failed.

When?

 

[Netserk]

Only by a quarter, and the gradients - in terms of both average and consistency - are very similar - and Romme had Colombière after it with like 5 minutes of descent in between. As a stand-alone climb, definitely a better comparison than Ventoux, Granon and probably also Hautacam.

Joux Plane versus everywhere one has dropped the other in this race:

Romme - 9.0k at 9.0%, cyclingcols difficulty of 727
Tignes - 20.0k at 5.9% (excluding preceding false flat and flat final kilometre), cyclingcols difficulty of 781 (including both)
Joux Plane - 11.6k at 8.5%, cyclingcols difficulty of 858
Hautacam - 15.9k at 7.6%, cyclingcols difficulty of 960
Granon - 10.5k at 9.4%, cyclingcols difficulty of 1017 (including false flat beforehand which they didn’t do so marginally lower in practice)
Ventoux - 21.4k at 7.5%, cyclingcols difficulty of 1324

The duration of Joux Plane is closer to Hautacam. The only question is how the two feel on the day and if the descent makes Vingegaard hesitant. The climb in itself, if it was a MTF last year, would see Vingegaard drop Pogi like a sack of potatoes.

 

[Martinstranger]

The Col de Soudet is 15 km @ 7% and the final climb is 8 km at almost 9% average gradient. If one of the two is stronger then this is more than challenging enough to drop one another and create a significant time gap. Of course it's possible nothing happens but if they feel like it this could be decisive.

Yes it can be decisive and thats is why I think it depends on how the stage unfolds. If either of them have riders out in front, then they might try something. And of course one of the can crack, so the other will be eager to take as most time as possible.

But it is the first mountain stage and they do not finish on the top. There is 18 km. to go from the latest top and i expect Vingegaard to be hesistant, unless he have helpers along his side.

 

[bNator]

Reasons why very little should happen:
It's stage 5.
Stage 6 is a MTF.
Pogacar has already tried twice to gap Vingegaard on more suitable climbs (at least in theory) and failed.

One thing that strikes me is that the team leaders seem far more superior than their domestiques now (the big 6 type philosophy), and that perhaps it is this factor which is producing more exciting racing, making it seem like team numbers have been reduced greatly in recent years (though from 9 to 8 they haven't really). I remember stages where Porte and Poels appeared to be almost as strong as Froome (and as strong as rivals), or when Azevedo or Heras took Armstrong away from everyone bar his strongest rival. But now it seems like Pogacar or Vingegaard can stomp on their pedals whenever they like and tear the peloton to shreds. Apart from Mcnulty's one off incredible ride last year, support riders don't seem to be as close to as strong as the leaders.

That's rich. Especially since if anyone, it was Vingegaard who tried to gap Pog on stage 2. And Failed.

 

[topcat]

Pog will drop Vingo with or without help from Yates.

 

[tobydawq]

(Super) La Planche des Belles Filles. Been used once or twice in cycling in recent years.

La Planche des Belles Filles - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Never heard of it.

 

[dobrien]

Agree - I think Jonas would like to wait. He's very aware that his force is on the long and high mountains. But maybe they have to do a test - just to see if Pogacar is totally back in form or if he might still lack some form.

But overall I really think it depends on how the stage unfolds. If Jumbo have two or more guys out in front who can help on the flat, then they have to test Pogacar out. Maybe they could get Adam Yates out of the competition in the same move, so they don't have to think about him.

I might limit my expectations today and only see it as a warm-up for stages to come. But as always - it's the riders who make the race and there are possibilities.

Yup, no question this could play out a number of ways, wouldn't even have to be Pog himself who shows weakness. If JV come out on a great day and the UAE doms look bad, drilling the stage and isolating Pog might be a great play, or vice-versa. Then anything can happen... for me I think by Sunday night we'll have seen at least one day where the stalemate is broken. I just don't see today being that day but as you say, it's the riders who will decide.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The duration of Joux Plane is closer to Hautacam. The only question is how the two feel on the day and if the descent makes Vingegaard hesitant. The climb in itself, if it was a MTF last year, would see Vingegaard drop Pogi like a sack of potatoes.

Duration is a useless indicator of difficulty. Cipressa has a slower climbing record than Montée Laurent Jalabert in Mende, but is obviously the easier climb by a country mile. Moreover, you can fit the Mur de Huy record twice in the Poggio record. As for longer climbs, Val Thorens takes longer than just about everything, including the hard side of Stelvio.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Looking back Pogacar didn't actually attack on stages 1 and 2, however, the pace was such that he had ridden away from everyone by the top, except Vingegaard.

 

[Netserk]

Duration is a useless indicator of difficulty. Cipressa has a slower climbing record than Montée Laurent Jalabert in Mende, but is obviously the easier climb by a country mile. Moreover, you can fit the Mur de Huy record twice in the Poggio record.

Duration is a better predictor than length. Of course difficulty matters more, but when we are comparing Pogi and Vingegaard, duration matters.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Duration is a better predictor than length. Of course difficulty matters more, but when we are comparing Pogi and Vingegaard, duration matters.

I wasn't taking length as a predictor, though...

 

[Jagartrott]

Yup, no question this could play out a number of ways, wouldn't even have to be Pog himself who shows weakness. If JV come out on a great day and the UAE doms look bad, drilling the stage and isolating Pog might be a great play, or vice-versa. Then anything can happen... for me I think by Sunday night we'll have seen at least one day where the stalemate is broken. I just don't see today being that day but as you say, it's the riders who will decide.

I do not see how JV would be able to isolate Pogacar. Yates is seemingly in good form, and then he should be one of the five best climbers this Tour. Kuss has been erratic so far, no idea how he feels today. Kelderman is good, but not Yates level, and maybe not Majka level. Van Aert - he should be good on gradual slopes, but with his weight it's almost impossible he can be of real use on the 11-12% final kms of the Marie Blanque. So, Pogacar isolated, unrealistic scenario I think.

 

[Netserk]

I wasn't taking length as a predictor, though...

Then how did Romme on its own become a better comparison with Joux Plane than Hautacam did?

 

[The Clogger]

UAE wants the bonus seconds on top of Col de Marie Blanque and then the stage, no? I doubt this will be a breakaway win.

I think Vingegaard will ride to the line this time with Pogacar, losing a total amount of 7 bonus seconds on today's stage.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Then how did Romme on its own become a better comparison with Joux Plane than Hautacam did?

Gradient, as mentioned in the post. This is reflected by the average climbing speeds of the records on the three climbs - 20.12 km/h for Romme, 21.20 km/h for Joux-Plane, 23.39 km/h for Hautacam. If we only include post-EPO times it stays the same for Romme for obvious reasons, becomes 19.95 km/h for Joux-Plane and 22.14 km/h for Hautacam.

 

[RedheadDane]

Jakobsen, before the start:
"It's either continue, or go home. And I'm not gonna go home!"

 

[Netserk]

Measured by @ammattipyoraily:

COL DE ROMME (8.52 km, 9.37 %, 798 m)
COL DE JOUX PLANE (11.50 km, 8.62 %, 991 m)
HAUTACAM (13.25 km, 8.03 %, 1064 m)

If Romme suits Pogi better, and Hautacam suits Vingegaard better, I'd say Joux Plane is closer to what suits Vingegaard.

 

[Cookster15]

Pog will drop Vingo with or without help from Yates.

Let’s hope so. But I am not certain. Let’s see.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Measured by @ammattipyoraily:

COL DE ROMME (8.52 km, 9.37 %, 798 m)
COL DE JOUX PLANE (11.50 km, 8.62 %, 991 m)
HAUTACAM (13.25 km, 8.03 %, 1064 m)

Official stats:
Romme 8.8k at 8.9%
Joux Plane 11.6k at 8.5%
Hautacam 13.6k at 7.8%

As measured by APM:
Romme 9.3k at 8.7%
Joux Plane 11.6k at 8.5%
Hautacam 14.7k at 7.5%

As measured by climbingrecords, where I got my speeds from:
Romme 9.1k at 8.9%
Joux Plane 11.6k at 8.5%
Hautacam 13.5k at 7.9%

I think ammattipyoraily's methodology seems a little bit off...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Someone should compile a list of about 150 climbs better suited to either Vingegaard or Pogačar than Joux Plane.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Someone should compile a list of about 150 climbs better suited to either Vingegaard or Pogačar than Joux Plane.

Easy list to make for Pogacar, as you could just do every cobbled hill in existence which probably gets you there all by itself.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Romme/Tignes comparison is very flawed in my opinion simply because Vingegaard had just crashed, wasn't at his peak and had a different mindset. Same with the big difference on Granon which was obviously way bigger than it should've been.

 

[Trofonios]

Pidcock wins today. Sure he won't hang with Pog and Vinge on Blanque but if his climbing shape is close to that he showed on Malhao i Algarve he might not be that far behind on the top and could get back on the descent. If his legs aren't totally gone by then he could challenge Pog in a sprint.

Yeah I know, a bit far-fetched, but not impossible.

 

[Tim Cahill]

If Van Aert or Benoot go on the flat then UAE need to have someone attached to them, one of their biggest problems last year was being unable to properly counteract them on stages like this. Grosschartner would be perfect for this, or Hisrchi if he was here.