Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 6: Tarbes - Cauterets-Cambasque, 144.9k

[Rackham]

The hope for Pogačar was that he could A/follow Vinge in the mountains (that's screwed) & B/have an advantage in GC which would force Vinge to attack. That's also screwed.

Now Vingegaard can just wait for the hard section on Cauterets & drop the watts there (which isn't even attacking really, it's just the science of having better climbing legs). I also expect Jumbo to pace as well for the stage win considering they haven't got one yet. Pog absolutely has to hold Vingegaard's wheel here or else he's super screwed.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

should watch the 1986 TDF

That stage was literally in the second half of the race… not entirely comparable.

 

[Eclipse]

Another easy minute for Vingeghoul here to end the race

 

[Netserk]

Tune in for the exciting fight for 2nd between Pogi and Hindley. Will the white jersey be able to reduce the gap between them?

 

[Boehmand]

Another GC stage, with a very similar start to today, except with Bora as the team everyone is looking to for control, which will be a tall order for them.

The next two days are easy GC stages, so everyone can go all out.

The Cat. 3 climb 27 K in will mean the break either has to be established quickly, or go here.

All the GC teams will try to get guys in the break again, because if you have people far enough out in front to wait at the top, you can attack already on Tourmalet - and if you can attack already on Tourmalet, you can create huge gaps to other GC riders.

I am certain Jumbo will try to capitalise on the weakness they have seen in Pogacar today, and try to twist the knife, but they only dare do it already on Tourmalet, if Vingegaard doesn't have to ride the last 50 K alone.

If UAE and Bora are smart, the first part of the stage (for them) becomes about denying Jumbo access to a break, as that will limit Vingegaards tactical possibilities on the stage, and probably restrict him to having a dig up the last climb.

 

[DNP-Old]

Lots of rain predicted for tomorrow, I hope it can give Pogacar the edge he desperately needs.

 

[Trofonios]

If TJV have one or two satellite riders well ahead then Vingegaard attacks on Tourmalet. Perfect would be van Aert or van Baarle who can drill it on the last climb before the steep part in the end.

I could be brutal.

 

[Boehmand]

What I'd LOVE to see, but what won't happen, is the teams with 2 guys up in GC, gambling on doing a "Hindley" on this stage.

If Ciccone/Skjelmose, Hindley/Buchmann, Pogacar/Yates take turns attacking already on d'Aspin, they can completely wear out Jumbo before they even get to Tourmalet, but it is too risky this early in the Tour, so it won't happen.

 

[Boehmand]

Lots of rain predicted for tomorrow, I hope it can give Pogacar the edge he desperately needs.

Vingegaard grew up in Denmark, rain is not a problem to him.

But interesting with rain predicted, it may make the race a great deal more conservative, as none of the GC teams want their captains risking too much in poor conditions.

 

[DNP-Old]

There's rumblings of thunder as well. I've seen enough, stage cancelled.

 

[houtdffan]

There's rumblings of thunder as well. I've seen enough, stage cancelled.

Well, if there is lightning, the stage has to be stopped. Cannot have riders continuing in a thunderstorm

 

[Laplaz]

Bora should send Buchmann in the breakaway.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Bora should send Buchmann in the breakaway.

Rolf Aldag has already said that guys like Politt and Haller will kill themselves to keep the breakaway in check but attack is probably the best defense here so this would be the better option.

 

[Tim Cahill]

2008 Col d'Aspin

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wX4Xb7ELEtM


Hopefully someone GC goes full-duval on the climb early tomorrow, do it for Ricco, for Piepoli, Simoni and of course the big man himself, Geriant Thomas.

 

[Reynard]

Bora should send Buchmann in the breakaway.

That would send Chris Horner into a coma and we can't have that -"you always stay with your leader"

Don't see any good option for Bora to put someone in the breakaway. Maybe Politt? Konrad isn't in top shape I think so if no other team bails out Bora a lot of workload on guys like van Poppel and Haller at the start and in the latter parts Jungels/Buchmann - but that really depends on the race and the other teams. I think Buchmann could be strong enough to make a 15 guys group over the Torumalet in which Kelderman or Soler are pulling. If Jumbo launches it completely theres not much you can't do but maybe it's even then possible to stay with Jai in the second group.

Taking the gamble again tomorrow seem to yolo for me now that they have a good position with Jai.

 

[Andy schleck]

Gouvenu: Let's get creative and go over the Aspin and Tourmalet this year.

C'mon...gouvenu is making nice routes in the last year's. Don't be a hater of him.

 

[Monte Serra]

2008 Col d'Aspin

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wX4Xb7ELEtM


Hopefully someone GC goes full-duval on the climb early tomorrow, do it for Ricco, for Piepoli, Simoni and of course the big man himself, Geriant Thomas.

That performance was radioactive. Not sure if that video is suitable for this sub-forum.

 

[Taxus4a]

This stage suit maybe better Vingegard than Poggi, as Tourmalet is a climb much better for the danish. But the end is better for Pogacar than Marie Blanc. Marie blanc is for tinny riders, as Hindley or Vingegard
So, IMO, if any opther team do. Jumbo has to make hard Tourmalet..if they can, becouse Kus is strong now but the team is no so strong.

Pogacar is paying a little his crash at Liege. But just a little, Vingegard year by year is stronger as is logical, and Pogacar has no more margin to improve despite his age.

Pogacar could improve a little bit after the rest day, but the worse stage for him is Courchevel one, so he has really difficult to win this Tour.

Main rival for GC for Vingegard is Hindley, and he can be happy he attacked and limted damage...if Hindley take 2 minutes today he will win this Tour.

Landa wanst at the level I hoped. Today stage are quite short and explosive, and they go full gas all day. But anyway I think this moders cyclist is not for him. He has really hard stages for hinmas courchevel and he can still show his class, fight for an stage and top 5. The podium is now really complicated, but he has to fight...I hope he has the mental strnght for that, It is not easy.

 

[Taxus4a]

So there are possible scenarios:
1) JV, full of confidence, decides to put the hammer down on Tourmalet trying to finish off Pogacar (who looks weaker now) for good - Wout would be very helpful in a breakaway (way more than today) to help Vinge on those shallow 20 km.
2) More conservative scenario: Vinge trying to gain some seconds on Cauterets (which isn't as lame climb as it looks on the stage profile, it has a nasty section).
3) Revenge day by UAE, Pogacar to go crazy on cold Tourmalet...time to wake up

Pogacar could suicide with the 3 option...as he did last year at Galibier....But he was super last year, this one looks no so strong. But we have to wait, First mountain stage is usually decissive, but not a mirror of the rest of the Tour.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

2008 Col d'Aspin

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wX4Xb7ELEtM


Hopefully someone GC goes full-duval on the climb early tomorrow, do it for Ricco, for Piepoli, Simoni and of course the big man himself, Geriant Thomas.

Reminder that Pinot last year has gone faster than ricco on this day. Unban him please and get him a team for 2024

 

[Poursuivant]

Tour will effectively be over tomorrow as they leave the Pyrenees. No-one is in the same class as Vingegaard, he will get massive gaps tomorrow.

Race for second is on though, I think Hindley will take it.

 

[geisterhome]

If TJV have one or two satellite riders well ahead then Vingegaard attacks on Tourmalet. Perfect would be van Aert or van Baarle who can drill it on the last climb before the steep part in the end.

I could be brutal.

But would a break (with domestiques like van aert or van baarle have enough advantage to survive serious pace plus attacks on the tourmalet? And if they do wouldn't maybe Jumbo start favorising a potential stage victory with van Aert.

 

[Lequack]

It's over, why drag it on?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For those who haven't seen the Tourmalet profile (are there any?): it's average gradient is misleading as it includes shallow gradients in the first few km. Later the Tourmalet from this side has over 12 km section at 8.7%. Coupled with high elevation it's definitely one of the most challenging climbs in the Pyrenees and this time it's not even zillion km from the line (as it's often been, resulting in no action). If guys decide to race it hard tomorrow the gaps could be massive.

 

[Boehmand]

But would a break (with domestiques like van aert or van baarle have enough advantage to survive serious pace plus attacks on the tourmalet? And if they do wouldn't maybe Jumbo start favorising a potential stage victory with van Aert.

Depends who the riders are and how much of a gap they get.

One has to question how much strength Bora will expend chasing down Jumbo Doms... they may let a break get 5-6 minutes, and in that case they can survive till the top of Tourmalet, especially if nobody drills it for the first half.

The more I think about it, the more I think Vingegaard will try to take significant time on Pogacar and Hindley tomorrow, because even if Jumbo take yellow, they can back completely off Friday and Saturday, to either let sprint teams control the break, or put a Benoot or Van Aert in it and simply refuse to work, even if it gets 10-12 minutes, and then it's just Puy de Dome Sunday before the rest day.