Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 6: Tarbes - Cauterets-Cambasque, 144.9k

[Sciatic]

It's only stage 6 folks!
If it's wet it'll be slow going all day - Pogacar won't be going in the ice tub afterwards. Bora to lead until final climb and Jumbo push the tempo up until finish.

Storm showers are indeed forecast for this afternoon, but those are spotty, depending upon where riders are when clouds open up. But It’s not going to be one of those cold& rain all day stages. It’s still quite pleasant with just light overcast here in Cauterets this morning.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If vingegaard is well tomorrow, jumbo should make the race hard on aspin and in the tourmalet for an attack of vingegaard in the last 5/6 km of tourmalet. It's the perfect climb to vingegaard make another statement, but first they should put van aert and Benoot in the breakaway like today. The perfect situation would be these two wait for vingegaard in the top of tourmalet.
kelderman(he needs to help more tomorrow) and kuss should make the race hard on tourmalet.

Absolutely, one has to use advantage over rivals to the maximum, especially in a GT when nothing is guaranteed. I think Vinge is even able to eliminate Pogacar from contention today - i.e. by putting further 2+ minutes into him (part of it on Tourmalet, part of it later with teammate(s) help). The vulnerability of Pogacar and the presence of Hindley may cause a more offensive mindset in JV team today.

 

[Red Rick]

Everyone, their mother, Pogacar and Hindley should want to be in the breakaway today

 

[VorstM]

C'mon...gouvenu is making nice routes in the last year's. Don't be a hater of him.

I like this years route as a whole, but the stages in the Pyrenees have been anything but original.

 

[meat puppet]

Jumbo should continue attacking, but, in the interest of keeping up appearances that they also tire a bit, rotate the riders who go up the road. So van Baarle or Laporte to replace Benoot. WVA goes of course. As people have insightfully argued, he is not a human but a donkey.

 

[theyoungest]

Everyone, their mother, Pogacar and Hindley should want to be in the breakaway today

If Pogi and Hindley are in the breakaway it's not a breakaway. It's the group of favourites.

 

[Rollthedice]

When you are an inferior climber and similar TTer (in a Tour with no meaningful TTs...) the only ways to fight back is to rely on a strong team, adventurous tactics to try an ambush or to force some descents. Pog is at best an average descender and I'm not sure UAE can outsmart and outpower Jumbo. Mano a Mano it will be a bloodbath against Vinge. Spectacular first Tour week but unfortunately it will be over too soon.

 

[Lequack]

Cycling is easy when your Vinge. You just pick a moment to attack and then ride away. UAE might have two leaders and try with 1-2 attacks, but that only works when you are dealing with equals opponents.

 

[Red Rick]

Think Jumbo will control today. No fancy tactics just reel the break in amd set up Vingegaard flr an attack in the final 5km

 

[movingtarget]

Think Jumbo will control today. No fancy tactics just reel the break in amd set up Vingegaard flr an attack in the final 5km

Pretty much.

 

[movingtarget]

Still can't believe they let Hindley get such a big lead before reacting let alone watching him go up the road in a break. After all he is a Giro winner.................

 

[Trofonios]

Pog shouldn't try to do crazy s**t today, because that could backfire badly. Just try to follow Vingegaard instead and hope the shape gets better the longer the tour goes and then try to do something week two and three. Vingegaard was superior yesterday and that won't change over night, therefore Pog should conserve energy and just follow Vingegaard and save his teammates as much as possible because they worked hard yesterday. Let TJV and Vingegaard do the work to take time on Hindley.

 

[Salvarani]

When you are an inferior climber and similar TTer (in a Tour with no meaningful TTs...) the only ways to fight back is to rely on a strong team, adventurous tactics to try an ambush or to force some descents. Pog is at best an average descender and I'm not sure UAE can outsmart and outpower Jumbo. Mano a Mano it will be a bloodbath against Vinge. Spectacular first Tour week but unfortunately it will be over too soon.

Vinge only loses if he has loss of form or something happens to him. Stranger things has happened though and there are many stages left.

Jumbo has fallen into some sort of false security before and lost it at the end.

Hindley will hang for dear life for as long as he can, but could lose the jersey immediately if Vinge is going for it again today or this weekend. Strike while the iron is hot, I guess.

Pog lost time yesterday and for the sake of the race cant have a really bad day, where he drops minutes. Hopefully he was smart yesterday and didnt try to follow, not going deep into red. He is probably in big trouble the coming days, if he went into red yesterday. The risk is that he will soon be empty, if that is the case. Maybe the injury is worse than they have portrayed or he is playing catch up with his form. Either way, he needs to keep limiting his losses and hope that his form gets better as the race goes on.

Losing time today or this weekend is of course not ideal, but as long as he doesnt have a super-bad day things could still be possible. A tiny chance if something happens and the momentum changes.

 

[titan31]

UAE should just try and get Majka up the road, and then maybe have Yates attack to bridge on the Tourmalet. Try and put it on Bora and Jumbo to close down Yates then, and give Pogacar a free ride and maybe he can attack on the steeper ramps on the last climb

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah now that I think of it, if Yates goes on the Tourmalet the only thing I expect to happen is Bora chasing him down without Jumbo ever hitting the front.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Still can't believe they let Hindley get such a big lead before reacting let alone watching him go up the road in a break. After all he is a Giro winner.................

Very good post, 100% agree… Exactly the feeling I had, yesterday…

 

[Valv.Piti]

If Hindley had 10 minutes I still wouldn't bet on him winning, because Jumbo would just target the *** out of him with long range attacks every day and probably get help from UAE as well

Sure, but thats not the case, so realistically Vingegaard will probably be 2-4 minutes better than Hindley assuming Hindley shows hes as strong as 2022 Giro (which he is Im pretty sure, probably a bit better).

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Cycling is easy when your Vinge. You just pick a moment to attack and then ride away.

Agree, but we mustn’t forget that Vinge is no Lance Armstrong. Vingegaard could crack, just like Pogi did in 2022 and 2023.

We now have

Pog and Adam Yates
vs Vinge and Kuss
vs Hindley and Buchmann
vs Rodriguez and Martinez
vs O‘Connor and Gall.

Five two man teams against each other…

 

[Berniece]

Think Jumbo will control today. No fancy tactics just reel the break in amd set up Vingegaard flr an attack in the final 5km

Wouldn't that give Pogacar the possibility to grow into the race? Vingegaard is currently at 100%, and Pogacar believes that he'll be better in the 3rd week. I would think after 2020, that Jumbo wants to have a bigger margin.

If I was them, just make the race as hard as possible again and try to take as much time as possible. Send some riders ahead and go on the Tourmalet already. WVA, Benoot and Laporte will take you to the foot of Cauterets-Cambrasque.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Sure, but thats not the case, so realistically Vingegaard will probably be 2-4 minutes better than Hindley assuming Hindley shows hes as strong as 2022 Giro (which he is Im pretty sure, probably a bit better).

At the moment, I rather have the feeling that Vingegaard is on the decline slightly, after peaking at Dauphine… Hindley however is still improving, and probably in week three will be at the top of his game. So slight advantage for Hindley. And his terrain is yet to come…

With Pog by the way, I don’t assume he‘ll still improve. His prep probably was too short, so I think he‘ll rather lose more time in weeks two and three. If the base work hasn‘t been done sufficiently, due to injury here, he‘ll have problems with the length of the Tour. I don‘t expect much improvement- rather, he‘ll deteriorate a bit in the next 2.5 weeks…

 

[Red Rick]

Wouldn't that give Pogacar the possibility to grow into the race? Vingegaard is currently at 100%, and Pogacar believes that he'll be better in the 3rd week. I would think after 2020, that Jumbo wants to have a bigger margin.

If I was them, just make the race as hard as possible again and try to take as much time as possible. Send some riders ahead and go on the Tourmalet already. WVA, Benoot and Laporte will take you to the foot of Cauterets-Cambrasque.

I think its much more Jumbos MO to put 20-30s into Pog with minimal risk than to do fancy strats whem already ahead to win 3 minutes.

It is very hard to get the right domestiques over the Tourmalet if you also go biblical on the Tourmalet with Vingegaard

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I'm just excited about whether Jai Hindley has something left in the bag after yesterday, and if so, thoughts about building on it, once again trying to get ahead of Vinge and Pogi before their internal battle.
Being in yellow jersey would be something of a spectacular breakaway!
Sadfully, logic says UAE will not allow that.

 

[Trofonios]

At the moment, I rather have the feeling that Vingegaard is on the decline slightly, after peaking at Dauphine… Hindley however is still improving, and probably in week three will be at the top of his game. So slight advantage for Hindley. And his terrain is yet to come…

With Pog by the way, I don’t assume he‘ll still improve. His prep probably was too short, so I think he‘ll rather lose more time in weeks two and three. If the base work hasn‘t been done sufficiently, due to injury here, he‘ll have problems with the length of the Tour. I don‘t expect much improvement- rather, he‘ll deteriorate a bit in the next 2.5 weeks…

Vingegaard peaked at Dauphine? Why would he peak at Duaphine when the tour is the big aim? Presumption is that Vingegaard peaked at Dauphine because he was extremely strong there and that he hardly can be any better than that. Vingegaard himself said at Dauphine that he could improve further to the tour, that his shape wasn't 100 percent yet.

TJV would of course never plan Vingegaards training so that he would decline during the tour. I don't exepect he will decline at all. More reasonable to believe that Pog will get better than Vingegaard declining I think.

 

[Berniece]

I think its much more Jumbos MO to put 20-30s into Pog with minimal risk than to do fancy strats whem already ahead to win 3 minutes.

It is very hard to get the right domestiques over the Tourmalet if you also go biblical on the Tourmalet with Vingegaard

Could very well be, they are calculated and don't really take risks. Let's hope Pogacar is able to bring some kind of randomness to the race then so it's a bit exciting to watch.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Vingegaard peaked at Dauphine? Why would he peak at Duaphine when the tour is the big aim? Presumption is that Vingegaard peaked at Dauphine because he was extremely strong there and that he hardly can be any better than that. Vingegaard himself said at Dauphine that he could improve further to the tour, that his shape wasn't 100 percent yet.

TJV would of course never plan Vingegaards training so that he would decline during the tour. I don't exepect he will decline at all. More reasonable to believe that Pog will get better than Vingegaard declinging I think.

I'm not implying it will happen, but there is of course a possibility that you mistime the peak slightly and even if the training has been planned for peaking at the tour and you feel things are right and according to the plan and that you can still improve, time might tell it's not the case.

We need to remember that cyclists are humans and not robots and even in todays scientific world of sport it's not given that you get the peak right.