I think until the last climb, he went with the idea that, based on yesterday, he was strong enough to drop Pog. Certainly on the last climb, he should have sensed this was not the case. At the same time, he lost 24 seconds (without bonuses), so the difference today was small, and Pog said that if he'd gone sooner, he might have blown up. He was cooked at the end, so maybe the sense for Jonas was that they were both pretty close, and that Pog dropping was still not out of the question. If he'd let Pog pull through earlier, he would have saved energy, for sure. I think he was racing, maxed out, and acting on instinct by that point. He put more time into Pog the day before, than Pog put into him today. I don't think it was a massive miscalculation, particularly with time to recover on the next two days. I think he will play it a little more conservatively on Sunday.
Again, Sunday will either be epic, or a big disappointment. I am hoping that Pog will want to make a killer blow, and make the race hard, so we can see who is who has the legs, but Sunday is still a loooooonnng way from Paris.