Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 6: Tarbes - Cauterets-Cambasque, 144.9k

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The problem with backing off once you've committed to such a daring attack is you signal your opponents that you're not as strong as you were hoping. If Jonas just backed off after Wout was done, it would be a clear indicator to Pog that he is weak. And as Pog said he wanted to go at 4 km but didn't due to the instruction from his team. Well - if Jonas sat back after Wout was done, Pog would have gone at 5 km to go and made amuch bigger difference...
Either that or Jonas does not pull and does not go in the red ads is able to follow Pog if he attacks. And he should have backed off on the Tourmalet after his first attack did not work. No shame in that.
But, he is probably just as delusional as some forum members and he believes he is unbeatable on any given climb. Well, the harsh reality hit him in the face pretty hard
 
On a completely different note, I always found it odd that despite the Tourmalet being such a household name in the Tour, it never actually produced any big moments. I mean what is the most iconic "Tourmalet stage"? Schleck and Contador holding hands in 2010? Surely there must have been a more iconic one in the past right?

This was the kind of stage that makes a climb a mythical one, not just one that is used very often.
Armstrong & Heras 2002 and Armstrong & Basso 2004 when they finished at La Mongie! Especially 2002 was stuck in people's minds with Heras literally killing everyone bar Beloki.

Virenque attacked from the bottom of the Tourmalet when he got his stunning breakaway victory at the 1994 Tour de France which put him in 2nd place at the gc until a lackluster final mtt. Pantani went in pursuit up towards the Tourmalet as well. But Ibanesto & Indurain mainly rode tempo that day.


Ullrich attacked Armstrong on the Tourmalet with Mayo catching up at the galerie. On Luz Ardiden of course Armstrong would hit back and win the 2003 Tour de France.


Thomas Voeckler had his great Pyrenees victory that saw him win the polka dots jersey over Kessiakoff at the 2012 Tour de France. Voeckler jumped clear up towards the Tourmalet with Brice Feillu in company. One of the few highlights of a rather boring and conservatively raced Tour de France.
 
Armstrong & Heras 2002 and Armstrong & Basso 2004 when they finished at La Mongie! Especially 2002 was stuck in people's minds with Heras literally killing everyone bar Beloki.

Virenque attacked from the bottom of the Tourmalet when he got his stunning breakaway victory at the 1994 Tour de France which put him in 2nd place at the gc until a lackluster final mtt. Pantani went in pursuit up towards the Tourmalet as well. But Ibanesto & Indurain mainly rode tempo that day.


Ullrich attacked Armstrong on the Tourmalet with Mayo catching up at the galerie. On Luz Ardiden of course Armstrong would hit back and win the 2003 Tour de France.


Thomas Voeckler had his great Pyrenees victory that saw him win the polka dots jersey over Kessiakoff at the 2012 Tour de France. Voeckler jumped clear up towards the Tourmalet with Brice Feillu in company. One of the few highlights of a rather boring and conservatively raced Tour de France.
Would have big a moment for Swedes, if Kessiakoff would have won that!

He was great after that, probably in the form of his life.

Won an ITT in the Vuelta, after the Tour, and finished 4th on the final mountain stage. Finished 5th in the Worlds ITT. 3rd in Milano-Torino, 10th in Lombardia and 2nd in Giro dell'Emilia.
 
I also do think designing an actual stage this time around did help. ASO should hold a seminar based on the Pyrenees mountain stages about how to NOT design 3 stages in the Pyrenees.. it was that bad.
I mean the Giro d'Italia has the 1998 Dolomites stages and the 2008 Dolomites stages. Yet, they're super eager to proudly repeat the 2008 mistakes over and over again!
 
Just watched the stage from the gun to the checkered flag.
Wonderful stage, but #VingoFail all the way.
Vingo reduced to Pogi super-domestic for about 55k's if you include downhill and flat sections. Of which you can, Pogi being glued to his wheel. It was like last year's Col du Galibier just reversed in pecking order.
 
Just got caught up and what a pleasant surprise!

Feels like JV (the individual and the team) got a bit overconfident and thought Pog was at best going to be hanging on and were completely unprepared for him being able to actively take the attack to them in the end.

Thank god we've still got a race on!
Part though was the need to test Hindley and ideally eliminate him from the equation. On that Galibier stage remember WvA waited for the Roglic group, not Vinge & Pog; without Hindley the plan might have been for him to drop back enough to fetch Kuss for the final climb.
 
I would say Pog was getting his tactics pretty wrong. Last year's stage 11 was a disaster from Pog and stage 5 of this tour as well. Yesterday he rode pretty smart and managed to capitalize on JV's incompetence

Yeah, but the Granon stage was still Jumbo making the tactics to repeatedly do the 1-2 punch on Pogacar. He wouldn't have faltered on that day, if they hadn't come up with that plan.
Are you sure you aren't just bitter that Roglic wasn't selected?
 
Glad to listen to Horner to confirm what I posted earlier - it was one big mess up by Jumbo who should have knocked it off on the Tourmalet when Pogacar was following without any problems. Vingegaard was nearly a minute in front of Pogacar on GC so could leave it until the last climb to try for more time or just sprint for time bonuses.
Pogacar was attacking last year after stage 11 so what were Jumbo thinking? I wonder what Roglic thought as he watched!
 
I guess we all agree now that TJV f**ked up yesterday. Tactics were probably right to begin with. Vingegaard dropped Pog the day before and there was a bit of a question mark if Pog was in top shape after a non-optimal build up to the tour. Given this there was a reason to believe that Vingegaard with a strong attack could drop Pog on the Tourmalet. And if he drops him the situation was perfect with van Aert up there and no UAE doms ahead that could help Pog in the chase. Vingegaard could have gained at least 90s, the tour would have been more or less over.

The first mistake was on Tourmalet when Vingegaard continued his attack after it was clear that Pog was on a better day. It was right to go hard for about 1k to see where Pog is at, but after that Vingegaard should have backed off and let Kuss come back and pull up to the top. Second mistake was of course on the last climb where Vingegaard pulled way too long on the steeper section more or less setting up Pog for an attack. TJV sort of forgot in the end how good the situation was for Vingegaard, he had distanced Hindley by 2 minutes and was up 53s on Pog, that's great after six stages. Instead they got greedy and wanted more in a situation where Vingegaard went deep the day before and had pulled hard on Tourmalet for 3k without dropping Pog and Pog had followed wheel all day.

Grischa definitely deserves some critcism.
 
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Yeah, but the Granon stage was still Jumbo making the tactics to repeatedly do the 1-2 punch on Pogacar. He wouldn't have faltered on that day, if they hadn't come up with that plan.
Are you sure you aren't just bitter that Roglic wasn't selected?
Well the 1-2 is the oldest plan in the book, there is no secret there. What matters is what JV does when things are a bit more complicated. And the answer is they possibly lost a Giro for Rog and they lied to Vingo yesterday to his detriment.
Sure I am disappointed I do not get to watch Rog race at this Tour but I am also glad that Jumbo is failing. Hopefully more people will realize that when your best rider wants to go to the Tour you take him.
 
Jumbo's tactical sense is great when they have the firepower to dinamite the race and everyone else is weaker. Their tactics are 'we are the strongest, have the best domestiques, let's put them for hours leading each group until everyone else is dropped'. That doesn't work when someone like Pogacar is strong enough to follow and save energy by going only on the wheels of Jumbo's work.

Last year they had someone like Roglic, who while being high-up on the overall, inspired fear of being a credible threat for GC for someone like Pogacar and made him react. This year their roster on this department is significantly weaker, when the only options from the start for that would be Kuss or Kelderman. Kuss comes already from the Giro and never showed in his career the consistency required to be a threat for a Tour GC bid while Kelderman is not a Roglic and was already close to 2 minutes behind Pogacar before the Tourmalet stage.

UAE panicked a bit with Hindley and had to burn their team on the Laruns stage which might have given Vingo an advantage on that stage. After yesterday, only Hindley can still be a factor if he gets in some breakaway, everyone else is more distanced. So we are almost at a 2 horse race right now, and as long as Pogacar is strong enough like yesterday to just follow the Jumbo work and then counter near the finish, they can't continue to resort on the tactics they put in place yesterday.
 
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I guess we all agree now that TJV f**ked up yesterday. Tactics were probably right to begin with. Vingegaard dropped Pog the day before and there was a bit of a question mark if Pog was in top shape after a non-optimal build up to the tour. Given this there was a reason to believe that Vingegaard with a strong attack could drop Pog on the Tourmalet. And if he drops him the situation was perfect with van Aert up there and no UAE doms ahead that could help Pog in the chase. Vingegaard could have gained at least 90s, the tour would have been more or less over.

The first mistake was on Tourmalet when Vingegaard continued his attack after it was clear that Pog was on a better day. It was right to go hard for about 1k to see where Pog is at, but after that Vingegaard should have backed off and let Kuss come back and pull up to the top. Second mistake was of course on the last climb where Vingegaard pulled way too long on the steeper section more or less setting up Pog for an attack. TJV sort of forgot in the end how good the situation was for Vingegaard, he had distanced Hindley by 2 minutes and was up 53s on Pog, that's great after six stages. Instead they got greedy and wanted more in a situation where Vingegaard went deep the day before and had pulled hard on Tourmalet for 3k without dropping Pog and Pog had followed wheel all day.

Grischa definitely deserves some critcism.
It's easy to armchair quarterback these things a day later. Yes, the scenario you described is what TJV SHOULD have done -- but only with the benefit of hindsight.

For one, who knew if Pog would be able to react to an acceleration on Cauterets? Was there any tell on Tourmalet that he was more than merely strong enough to hang on to Vingegaaard? I didn't see one.

Second, by pushing on they (mostly) got rid of Hindley.

Where things did NOT go according to plan is that Pogacar's recovery from being dropped by a minute in 1.5 km the day earlier was insane.

If JV had soft pedaled the rest of the stage after the initial Tourmalet attack the forum would have criticized them for positioning Wout as a satellite rider but not using him. Can't win for losing.
 
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It's easy to armchair quarterback these things a day later. Yes, the scenario you described is what TJV SHOULD have done -- but only with the benefit of hindsight.

For one, who knew if Pog would be able to react to an acceleration on Cauterets? Was there any tell on Tourmalet that he was more than merely strong enough to hang on to Vingegaaard? I didn't see one.

Second, by pushing on they (mostly) got rid of Hindley.

Where things did NOT go according to plan is that Pogacar's recovery from being dropped by a minute in 1.5 km the day earlier was insane.

If JV had soft pedaled the rest of the stage after the initial Tourmalet attack the forum would have criticized them for positioning Wout as a satellite rider but not using him. Can't win for losing.
It was pretty clear to me that Pog was looking well on the Tourmalet. Vingo was desperate to drop him pulling all sorts of faces and Pog was looking very calm.
And you could be excused for not seeing that but the guys in the Jumbo car... Vingo should be pretty disappointed in them.
 
In hindsight, Vingegaard should have done a more uneven pace on Tourmalet. With Kelderman and Kuss pulling them clear and Van Aert ahead, he was invulnerable to any counters there and could also wait for Kuss to get back up without any UAE riders. One big attack after Kuss had pulled, then when he couldn't shake Pogi, he shouldn't have pulled him, but waited for Kuss. Then have Kuss pace a bit and launch him again. He only needed a gap of 10'' to go clear. If he couldn't drop him then, that should be a clear sign to wait for Kuss again and defend the lead he had.

He must have felt really good to try to win the most difficult way, but if it had worked it would have been brilliant. But the difference between a 25'' and 53'' lead in GC is significant. With the latter, he could afford to defend like last year the rest of the Tour. Not now.
 
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It's easy to armchair quarterback these things a day later. Yes, the scenario you described is what TJV SHOULD have done -- but only with the benefit of hindsight.

I think the benefit of hindsight is overstated here, i.e. considering we're talking about literally the most basic tactics in cycling. Those tactics are to sit on the rival's wheel & counter. Or try to gap him & when it fails, quickly revert to a defensive position. Jumbo just went all in & never quit pulling. It was nuts.

It's okay for people to find yesterday's Jumbo assault on Pog "entertaining" but the risk far outweighed the reward. They had nearly a minute lead over their main rival in GC & blew half of it, i.e. just for the sake of pursuing the imagery of another demolition job after Granon last year. I doubt many people woke up yesterday morning after Vingegaard dropped Pog on Marie Blanque & thought "it totally makes sense to attack on the Tourmalet & go all in today!". What's the rush? If Vingegaard is a better climber, just wait & counter.

It worked last year (on Hautacam in particular).