Tour de France Tour de France 2024, 2nd rest day poll: Who will win?

[Berniece]

99% chance that Pogacar wins, 0.9% that Vingegaard takes it, but I'm going for the 0.1% of Remco winning. Let's go Evenepoel

 

[Eclipse]

Well, my thoughts were way off base last week I guess.

Hard to see how Pogi loses from here, even if he does finally start to suffer in as bad a way as you might expect, the team should be able to manage a 3 min lead unless he has a complete implosion

 

[Miha81]

I don't disagree with this but the truth is all of these riders are pushing watts they've never done before so the whole "Rog has never done this" sort of goes out the window as well.

Landa would demolish his younger Sky self at his current level & win the Tour versus Froome.

Fair enough. If he shows it in the near future I will change my mind and confirm that this edition of TDF has an asterisk. Until then I saw nothing from Rog that would confirm this. The best two riders are number 1 and 2 at the end of 2nd week. Others compete only for the remaining podium spot and minor jerseys (if we exclude accidents).

 

[James M]

semi off topic didn't know where else to type it.

How many sprinters, OL hopefuls will leave the Tour either today or after the sprint stage tomorrow? Any historians who can enlighten me?

No sprint stages left so I would think maybe someone will after tomorrow of those or? Also the heavy hitters for OL will they ride to Nice or will some step out aswell? stage 17 and 18 are breakaway gold on paper so maybe stay in but after at least its just the mountains not sure how much ppl like Van der Poel care to ride over that if it hurts his ambitions?

I expect over 5 ppl to step of of those reasons with today and after tomorrows stage combined but don't know. Is that wild or way off to think?

 

[Gigs_98]

Obviously Pogacar is the outstanding favorite now. But I don't think it's absolutely over. He is going up against a rider who is not here for 2nd place and who has built a two minute gap on the third placed rider. I think Visma will try to cause absolute havoc on stage 19, trying to get riders up the road before launching Vingegaard on Bonette. That's the test Pogacar will have to pass. I think he will but a rider who blew up twice in the last two Tours can absolutely blow up for a third time. You drop on Bonette with someone like Jorgenson up the road and you are in deep trouble. Visma will try every trick in the book to crack him.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

semi off toptic didnt know where else to type it.

How many sprinters, Ol hopefulls will leave the Tour either today or after the sprint stage tomorrow? Any historicans who can enlighten me?

No sprint stages left so I would think maybe someone will after tomorrow of those or? Also the heavy hitters for OL will they ride to Nice or will some step out aswell? stage 17 and 18 are breakaway gold on paper so maybe stay in but after atleast its just the mountains not sure how much ppl like Van der poel care to ride over that if it hurts his ambitions?

I expect over 5 ppl to step of of those reasons with today and after tomorrows stage combined but dont know. Is that wild or way off to think?

A decent comparison would be the 2017 Giro, which had its final sprint on stage 13 and then after that (similar to this race) one TT, one breakaway day and only mountain stages otherwise.

Only Greipel and Mareczko immediately pulled out the day after.

Ewan, Gibbons, Modolo, Bauhaus DNS'd or DNF'd further into the Alps.

Gaviria (who was in purple), Bennett, Stuyven, Pedersen, Ferrari, Sbaragli all finished.

Given that a) finishing the Tour is more prestigious, b) there are fewer mountains left to get over, and c) a number of these riders had a Tour to worry about, it would surprise me if there are more dropouts than that (barring mass OTLs). And probably the opposite.

 

[James M]

A decent comparison would be the 2017 Giro, which had its final sprint on stage 13 and then after that (similar to this race) one TT, one breakaway day and only mountain stages otherwise.

Only Greipel and Mareczko immediately pulled out the day after.

Ewan, Gibbons, Modolo, Bauhaus DNS'd or DNF'd further into the Alps.

Gaviria (who was in purple), Bennett, Stuyven, Pedersen, Ferrari, Sbaragli all finished.

Given that a) finishing the Tour is more prestigious, b) there are fewer mountains left to get over, and c) a number of these riders had a Tour to worry about, it would surprise me if there are more dropouts than that (barring mass OTLs). And probably the opposite.

Awesome thank you! Only thing in 2017 they didnt have OL right after thats also a factor here and might impact it.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

A decent comparison would be the 2017 Giro, which had its final sprint on stage 13 and then after that (similar to this race) one TT, one breakaway day and only mountain stages otherwise.

Only Greipel and Mareczko immediately pulled out the day after.

Ewan, Gibbons, Modolo, Bauhaus DNS'd or DNF'd further into the Alps.

Gaviria (who was in purple), Bennett, Stuyven, Pedersen, Ferrari, Sbaragli all finished.

Given that a) finishing the Tour is more prestigious, b) there are fewer mountains left to get over, and c) a number of these riders had a Tour to worry about, it would surprise me if there are more dropouts than that (barring mass OTLs). And probably the opposite.

The 2017 version of Pedersen was not exactly a rider that would think about dropping out for strategic reasons though.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The 2017 version of Pedersen was not exactly a rider that would think about dropping out for strategic reasons though.

I'm getting my Giri confused, it was 2018 where he was sprinting in a GT for the first time.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[svit]

Name one of his performances where he pushed almost 7W/kg per for 40minutes or at least more than 30minutes. Since he had plenty of those it probably won't be hard.

Angliru last year for example.

The point I am trying to make is, that you can't claim something (he would lost 2 minutes) if we are talking hypothesis here. Roglic wasn't there yesterday, so we don't know.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The point I am trying to make is, that you can't claim something (he would lost 2 minutes) if we are talking hypothesis here. Roglic wasn't there yesterday, so we don't know.

I wasn't there yesterday either, so we doubly don't know.

 

[Miha81]

Angliru last year for example.

The point I am trying to make is, that you can't claim something (he would lost 2 minutes) if we are talking hypothesis here. Roglic wasn't there yesterday, so we don't know.

Alto de l’Angliru was 6,43W/kg for 41,5min which is less than Remco did yesterday. Anyway I did not claim he would lose 2 minutes I just replied to one user claiming that TDF will always have an asterix since Rogla is gone with the crash. And yes, I replied with stating the fact that Rogla never performed even near the level that top 2 did yesterday which is true and only fact you can state in this case.

 

[spicelab]

Alto de l’Angliru was 6,43W/kg for 41,5min which is less than Remco did yesterday. Anyway I did not claim he would lose 2 minutes I just replied to one user claiming that TDF will always have an asterix since Rogla is gone with the crash. And yes, I replied with stating the fact that Rogla never performed even near the level that top 2 did yesterday which is true and only fact you can state in this case.

The hilarious part is the post from the user in question was made in jest but it's clearly been taken very seriously.

 

[Wyndbrook]

semi off topic didn't know where else to type it.

How many sprinters, OL hopefuls will leave the Tour either today or after the sprint stage tomorrow? Any historians who can enlighten me?

No sprint stages left so I would think maybe someone will after tomorrow of those or? Also the heavy hitters for OL will they ride to Nice or will some step out aswell? stage 17 and 18 are breakaway gold on paper so maybe stay in but after at least its just the mountains not sure how much ppl like Van der Poel care to ride over that if it hurts his ambitions?

I expect over 5 ppl to step of of those reasons with today and after tomorrows stage combined but don't know. Is that wild or way off to think?

Well at least the sprinters still have a day to look forward to tomorrow.
Other than the top three and their sidekicks , practically every other rider has sweet sod all to look forward to other than finishing, then going home.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Doesn't matter who wins. This edition will always have an asterisk.

We can't keep asterisking Tours because Roglic crashed.

 

[topcat]

Pog is going all out today, leaving nothing in the dressing room. Tomorrow he will gift the stage to the sprinters, he's always been generous. On Wednesday and Thursday he will fight his inner demons and try to be happy with stage wins and bonus seconds. This will sit badly with him, so he will go faster, faster and faster on the last 3 days. He will end up as the first cyclist on the moon.

 

[James M]

On Wednesday and Thursday he will fight his inner demons and try to be happy with stage wins and bonus seconds. This will sit badly with him, so he will go faster, faster and faster on the last 3 days. He will end up as the first cyclist on the moon.

 

[Miha81]

This will sit badly with him, so he will go faster, faster and faster on the last 3 days. He will end up as the first cyclist on the moon.

You mean first human on the moon. Some say that studio does not count 🤣😂😅

 

[OJRvE]

The hilarious part is the post from the user in question was made in jest but it's clearly been taken very seriously.

It’s because Roglic fans of this forum are very annoying when they try to discuss him in all threads.

 

[Nick2413]

Jonas still hasn’t shown any cracks, Pogacar has just been significantly better. I think there is still a chance for Jonas knowing Pogacar has historically had a bad day or 2, but the chances of a bad day are much lower when he is able to ride defensively. But obviously 90%+ chance Pog wins.

 

[KZD]

I keep my vote in Pogačar especially after the historical weekend that we have witnessed.

I don't expect Vingegaard to give up though, so he will try on stage 19 and 20 (maybe on stage 17 too) and those two stages barely have any flat ground and Cime de la Bonette is a such a hard climb that anything can happen there so he still has a chance of winning the Tour but it would take another bad day from Pogačar for that to happen.

 

[Lequack]

Alpecin's new look for the rest day

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812858003298607109

View: https://x.com/AlpecinDCK/status/1812858003298607109

 

[Netserk]

A decent comparison would be the 2017 Giro, which had its final sprint on stage 13 and then after that (similar to this race) one TT, one breakaway day and only mountain stages otherwise.

Only Greipel and Mareczko immediately pulled out the day after.

Ewan, Gibbons, Modolo, Bauhaus DNS'd or DNF'd further into the Alps.

Gaviria (who was in purple), Bennett, Stuyven, Pedersen, Ferrari, Sbaragli all finished.

Given that a) finishing the Tour is more prestigious, b) there are fewer mountains left to get over, and c) a number of these riders had a Tour to worry about, it would surprise me if there are more dropouts than that (barring mass OTLs). And probably the opposite.

Agreed. My expectation before the Tour was that only those with a focus on the Olympic Games would drop out.

What is the over/under for the number of riders deciding that there is no point in them continuing beyond stage 16?

I think only those who are picked for the Olympics will consider that.

 

[Escarabajo]

So far three voters with a sense of humour.

Or expecting a big crash!