Tour de France Tour de France 2024, 2nd rest day poll: Who will win?

[solo80k]

Well, hard to look past Pog but Jonas still has a small chance.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The only scenario (except crashes) in which Vingo wins is that Pogacar has a really bad day and Vingo has none. It's possible OFC but keep in mind that due to rushed preparations Vingo can have a bad day at the end.

 

[scribers]

I think it's time we accept Carapaz has no credible chance at the podium this tour

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Mark Cavendish.

His ascent of the Plateau de Beille yesterday was very impressive. It shows he has good form coming into week 3.

He's my pick.

Mark is a classic example or riding himself into form. He was suffering like a dog in Italy but is getting stronger. A monster peak incoming in the 3rd week. Someone will shout I'm gone, I'm dead when Mark flies on Bonette.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Mark is a classic example or riding himself into form. He was suffering like a dog in Italy but is getting stronger. A monster peak incoming in the 3rd week. Someone will shout I'm gone, I'm dead when Mark flies on Bonette.

Well with the way he's riding at the moment, it can't be ruled out that his only chance to reach the top is by plane.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Obviously Pogacar is the outstanding favorite now. But I don't think it's absolutely over. He is going up against a rider who is not here for 2nd place and who has built a two minute gap on the third placed rider. I think Visma will try to cause absolute havoc on stage 19, trying to get riders up the road before launching Vingegaard on Bonette. That's the test Pogacar will have to pass. I think he will but a rider who blew up twice in the last two Tours can absolutely blow up for a third time. You drop on Bonette with someone like Jorgenson up the road and you are in deep trouble. Visma will try every trick in the book to crack him.

Yes, Visma-LAB will go all in and attack hard, most likely on stage 19 (on Bonette already). They aren't interested in the 2nd place. Pog can't have bad legs then.

 

[Red Rick]

The tailwind will be blowing all day on Friday. Hold your horses. 1800 VAM Bonette is coming.

 

[Red Rick]

Obviously Pogacar is the outstanding favorite now. But I don't think it's absolutely over. He is going up against a rider who is not here for 2nd place and who has built a two minute gap on the third placed rider. I think Visma will try to cause absolute havoc on stage 19, trying to get riders up the road before launching Vingegaard on Bonette. That's the test Pogacar will have to pass. I think he will but a rider who blew up twice in the last two Tours can absolutely blow up for a third time. You drop on Bonette with someone like Jorgenson up the road and you are in deep trouble. Visma will try every trick in the book to crack him.

Based on what could it happen again? 2022 was a self inflicted collapse where VIngegaard was also the better climber all throughout the Tour. 2023 he never even dropped Vingegaard like a brick like the last 2 days and the momentum was already going down like 5 days before the collapse.

We're literally down to hoping that the rider presently at the highest level the sport has ever seen will randomly collapse

 

[Gigs_98]

Based on what could it happen again? 2022 was a self inflicted collapse where VIngegaard was also the better climber all throughout the Tour. 2023 he never even dropped Vingegaard like a brick like the last 2 days and the momentum was already going down like 5 days before the collapse.

We're literally down to hoping that the rider presently at the highest level the sport has ever seen will randomly collapse

I think Vingegaard could have dropped Pogacar on stage 11 if he had tried it so I don't think he's untouchable. I also think yesterdays gap makes their performance delta look bigger than it actually was because Pogacar spent so much time in Vingegaards slipstream. It's like with Hautacam in 2022 where one is clearly stronger than the other but the gap only looks quite as extreme because the weaker rider wasted a lot of energy. Cautarets last year was also quite similar with Pogacar gaining time due to Vismas overconfidence, only I don't think Pogacar was the stronger rider that day at all.

Frankly Pogacar throughout his TdF career has had plenty of subpar days including this edition so I don't think we can rule out another one next week and Vingegaard is certainly strong enough to take advantage.

 

[YavorD]

I keep my vote in Pogačar especially after the historical weekend that we have witnessed.

I don't expect Vingegaard to give up though, so he will try on stage 19 and 20 (maybe on stage 17 too) and those two stages barely have any flat ground and Cime de la Bonette is a such a hard climb that anything can happen there so he still has a chance of winning the Tour but it would take another bad day from Pogačar for that to happen.

While Cime de la Bonette is a really hard climb I think the gradients near the top suit Pogacar a vit more and if Almeida and Yates are close I find it really hard to believe Vingegaard will survive unless Visma has a man in the break which shouldn't be allowed by UAE.
Vingo will try for sure but the chances aren't on his side. Yet I'm somehow afraid that Pogi won't win the Tour.

 

[scribers]

I watched stage 11 and Vingo would have tried to drop pogi if he could. He didn’t because he can’t

 

[Cookster15]

I am not expecting Pogi to collapse. And he will have to collapse for Vingegaard to have any chance of overhauling him by Nice. In fact, with his rushed and interrupted preparation I think it’s also possible we see Vingegaard collapse.

As for the Cime de la Bonette stage the equivalent in the Giro was the Livigno stage when Pog rode away from Quintana at high altitude. Although that was only stage 15. The main thing about Bonette is it comes on stage 19 when surely the effects of the Giro and this Tour are finally taking its toll.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think Vingegaard could have dropped Pogacar on stage 11 if he had tried it so I don't think he's untouchable. I also think yesterdays gap makes their performance delta look bigger than it actually was because Pogacar spent so much time in Vingegaards slipstream. It's like with Hautacam in 2022 where one is clearly stronger than the other but the gap only looks quite as extreme because the weaker rider wasted a lot of energy. Cautarets last year was also quite similar with Pogacar gaining time due to Vismas overconfidence, only I don't think Pogacar was the stronger rider that day at all.

Frankly Pogacar throughout his TdF career has had plenty of subpar days including this edition so I don't think we can rule out another one next week and Vingegaard is certainly strong enough to take advantage.

Pogacar is a different beast in high mountains this year though. It was apparant in Catalunya, Giro d' Italia and now Tour de France. Its not really the same rider as previous editions. His threshold is basically 0,50 w/kg higher, lol. That just makes it so, so much harder to drop obviously (especially when Vingegaard has to be the agressor) and also bonk because you have those extra watts in the bank, so even on a bad day, it might not be noticed before its too late.

Dno what happened on stage 11, a random subpar day, fueling issue, whatever I dont know. Galibier is hard to assess cause of hard headwind. San Luca, where it was generally thought he would have a big advantage, his attack was kinda meh. Same thing in the Giro on stage 1 and Catalunya stage 7 where he even got dropped - he's very good, but not the monster he's made out to be on these short efforts. However he has somehow improved dramatically on longer efforts, so in short, we are just watching a different rider. Thats at least my assessment after the Pyrenees with everything else I have seen from him this year.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

Teddy Podgeacar by a whisker

 

[Netserk]

semi off topic didn't know where else to type it.

How many sprinters, OL hopefuls will leave the Tour either today or after the sprint stage tomorrow? Any historians who can enlighten me?

No sprint stages left so I would think maybe someone will after tomorrow of those or? Also the heavy hitters for OL will they ride to Nice or will some step out aswell? stage 17 and 18 are breakaway gold on paper so maybe stay in but after at least its just the mountains not sure how much ppl like Van der Poel care to ride over that if it hurts his ambitions?

I expect over 5 ppl to step of of those reasons with today and after tomorrows stage combined but don't know. Is that wild or way off to think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813297214287978517

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1813297214287978517

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Pogacar is a different beast in high mountains this year though. It was apparant in Catalunya, Giro d' Italia and now Tour de France. Its not really the same rider as previous editions. His threshold is basically 0,50 w/kg higher, lol. That just makes it so, so much harder to drop obviously (especially when Vingegaard has to be the agressor) and also bonk because you have those extra watts in the bank, so even on a bad day, it might not be noticed before its too late.

Dno what happened on stage 11, a random subpar day, fueling issue, whatever I dont know. Galibier is hard to assess cause of hard headwind. San Luca, where it was generally thought he would have a big advantage, his attack was kinda meh. Same thing in the Giro on stage 1 and Catalunya stage 7 where he even got dropped - he's very good, but not the monster he's made out to be on these short efforts. However he has somehow improved dramatically on longer efforts, so in short, we are just watching a different rider. Thats at least my assessment after the Pyrenees with everything else I have seen from him this year.

Didn't they say that he has trained specifically for long climbs this year rather than shorter efforts? Would fit his season in a way.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I watched stage 11 and Vingo would have tried to drop pogi if he could. He didn’t because he can’t

I think I disagree. He was clearly not at his best at this day, as witnessed by being beaten by Vingegaard in a sprint, he also lost the time to Vingegaard on the climb pretty fast that day once Vingegaard started catching up. To me it looked like Vingo dropped a good chance to gain time there, but he rode to conservative. But the fact remains he didn't drop Pogacar of course,

 

[Valv.Piti]

Didn't they say that he has trained specifically for long climbs this year rather than shorter efforts? Would fit his season in a way.

I think that's the logical conclusion yes, but I can't really remember mou posting that. But from what we have seen, and Pog desperately wanting to win in July again, I think yes. Its sort of a small transformation even though he's still very explosive.

 

[MJR]

No Friere choice?! Unthinkable.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think that's the logical conclusion yes, but I can't really remember mou posting that. But from what we have seen, and Pog desperately wanting to win in July again, I think yes. Its sort of a small transformation even though he's still very explosive.

One of the ones I found but I think he posted more in regards to Pogacar focusing on the longer climbs, in addition to Pogacar saying that himself.

Pog will not have any special power bomb compared to 2023, he worked mostly on endurance and long climbs this winter, last year at this time he weighed 67 kg and this time 65, his only chance is to be a tailwind on Cippresa and Poggio and that Mcnulty breaks the peloton to 20-30 people on Cippresa and leads all the way to Poggio when Wellens takes over 1.5 km full throttle and then Pog attacks km to the finish on an 8-9% gradient in those 100m, but for something like that you need a very strong pace in the last 50km of the race

 

[topcat]

If Pog wins, he will owe it all to mou.

 

[scribers]

Well, hard to look past Pog but Jonas still has a small chance.

He can do it tomorrow with an 80k solo

 

[topt]

Doesn't matter who wins. This edition will always have an asterisk.

he he, unlike last years one

 

[topt]

If you want to know, take a look in the clinic. If you prefer not to know, don't.

just wondering are you in clinic talking also about Landa? he was damn close to Pantani record

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

just wondering are you in clinic talking also about Landa? he was damn close to Pantani record

Yes. Muss less so, but yes.