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Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 13: Agen > Pau, 165.3 km

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Any potential for echelons here?
I think there is potential. Looks to be more a little more wind forecast than previous stages and there are at least a couple of sections (before and after the intermediate sprint) where it could break up. The question is whether there will be any teams willing to push on afterwards. The finale is headwind so that's always a disincentive.

The first hour or two is also strong headwind which might mean no break again.
 
Been a strange pattern for dropping out of the Tour. By the end of stage ten, only 4 riders missing (probably a record), then on stage 11 that number doubled, and yesterday had 6 fall away on the day, and one more(edit: 2 more, Herrada also DNS) this morning. I guess the nature of stages 1&2 have something to do with it, and the spreading bug/virus, but it looks like a day where we will need to find something to talk about for the first 150km, so...
 
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And once again probably a sprint stage. I still think this route is way too back loaded. Only one real mountain stage after 13 stages is just ***. We have seen some proper stages (first stage, gravel stage, Le Lioran stage) that were proper entertaining but the general balance so far tends towards fairly boring.
 
Problem nowadays is you don't have to be the best GC rider, you also have to be the luckiest.

That's not a novelty, it's always been like that since I have memory.

Go back to 1999 with Le Tour going to even more egregious places like Passage du Gois at stage 3. Zülle out with a 6'03'' deficit on the stage, plus Rinero (4th in the previous year), Boogerd (5th), Jean-Cyril Robin (6th), Roland Meier (7th), Giro winner Gotti, etc,
 
That's not a novelty, it's always been like that since I have memory.

Go back to 1999 with Le Tour going to even more egregious places like Passage du Gois at stage 3. Zülle out with a 6'03'' deficit on the stage, plus Rinero (4th in the previous year), Boogerd (5th), Jean-Cyril Robin (6th), Roland Meier (7th), Giro winner Gotti, etc,

I think tbh with computers and race radio as well as better drilled teams and mechanics etc?

GC has less luck than it in then ever.

Not like in the 80s and earlier when a break could go and sometimes teams would not even know a GC contender was in it for 10 minutes ahahaha.
 
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And once again probably a sprint stage. I still think this route is way too back loaded. Only one real mountain stage after 13 stages is just ***. We have seen some proper stages (first stage, gravel stage, Le Lioran stage) that were proper entertaining but the general balance so far tends towards fairly boring.
On the other hand - looking at the GC gaps, Ciccone as 10th is already 7:36 behind. So gaps behind the top riders will again be huge. To match last year (Martin 26:30 behind Vingegaard), you have to go back to 1997; to match 2022 (Madouas 35:59 behind Vingegaard), you have to go back to 1979 (yes, that was a lot of clicking).

So the top 2, maybe 3 if Remco keeps it up, really ride on a different speed. And I agree with you, only one tough mountain so far and gaps are still huge already.
 
Problem nowadays is you don't have to be the best GC rider, you also have to be the luckiest.
Luck is good but Roglic is just a bad bike handler. He crashes himself out more than most of the top GC guys. I think he needs to spend some time away from the road and spend time riding a hardtail MTB on singletrack trails to develop his skills. It's probably too late though as he is aging out fast physically from being the best. About the best he was going to get at the TdF this year was 4th if he didn't crash so often.

Remco is another rider I would assign some MTB riding in the off-season to develop his skills. These old roadie teams/coaches/directors have no idea how to develop skills for riders who came in late to the sport of cycling.
 
Luck is good but Roglic is just a bad bike handler. He crashes himself out more than most of the top GC guys. I think he needs to spend some time away from the road and spend time riding a hardtail MTB on singletrack trails to develop his skills. It's probably too late though as he is aging out fast physically from being the best. About the best he was going to get at the TdF this year was 4th if he didn't crash so often.

Remco is another rider I would assign some MTB riding in the off-season to develop his skills. These old roadie teams/coaches/directors have no idea how to develop skills for riders who came in late to the sport of cycling.

A lot of older roadies, especially if they are not from Benelux or the UK, have no respect for CC or MTB so not much of a surprise.
 
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On the other hand - looking at the GC gaps, Ciccone as 10th is already 7:36 behind. So gaps behind the top riders will again be huge. To match last year (Martin 26:30 behind Vingegaard), you have to go back to 1997; to match 2022 (Madouas 35:59 behind Vingegaard), you have to go back to 1979 (yes, that was a lot of clicking).

So the top 2, maybe 3 if Remco keeps it up, really ride on a different speed. And I agree with you, only one tough mountain so far and gaps are still huge already.
But I don't really care about time gaps, I care about entertaining stages and a route builder can influence this heavily. Last year you had way more stages that were entertaining in the flat or middle mountain terrain (stages won by Bilbao, Asgreen, Mohoric). Yesterday's stage as well, you're ending in the Lot area, try to find some hurdle that can spice things up, a 3rd category climb with a punchy end to it at 20km would give so much more interesting racing.
 
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But I don't really care about time gaps, I care about entertaining stages and a route builder can influence this heavily. Last year you had way more stages that were entertaining in the flat or middle mountain terrain (stages won by Bilbao, Asgreen, Mohoric). Yesterday's stage as well, you're ending in the Lot area, try to find some hurdle that can spice things up, but a 3rd category climb with a punchy end to it at 20km would give so much more interesting racing.

I think the organizers want a lot of GC riders to crash out, there is no other reason for creating such stage profiles. Why they want this, I don't know.
 
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