Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 14: Pau - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet 151.9km

[Medvind]

Likely a break takes it. I go with Gaudu.

If not a break, Pog wins by 15s over Vinge, he attacks hard on the steep section before it flattens out. If Pog has seperation on the lower gradients before the finish, Vinge won't be able to catch.

I could also see Almedia or Yates sneaking away for a win.

 

[houtdffan]

They shouldve just done that stage again, to think what Pogi and Vingo could do with this, granted they arent George Hincapie of all people, but they might come close

that stage would give goveneou a triple heart attack, a massive stroke, and a pulmonary embolism at the same time

 

[Valv.Piti]

They shouldve just done that stage again, to think what Pogi and Vingo could do with this, granted they arent George Hincapie of all people, but they might come close

If I remember correctly they also did a very, very similar stage to this in 2001. Ullrich attacked early and crashed on the descent from Peyresourde or Azet and Armstrong did his thing in the MTF. In 2005, there was also some decent movement further out with Basso, Ullrich and Armstrong.

 

[tobydawq]

They shouldve just done that stage again, to think what Pogi and Vingo could do with this, granted they arent George Hincapie of all people, but they might come close

That was a disgusting ride by Hincapie. Biggest wheelsuck-win I've ever seen.

Maybe apart from Jérôme Cousin but his ride had a little more small-team-riding-smartly-charm than Hincapie's.

At least Pereiro received his karma-reward in extreme abundance the following year.

 

[Sciatic]

I wouldn't be surprised if Remco dropped somewhere close to a minute, but not sure I'd necessarily call that a bad day. If guys behind him only drop 15 secs, sure. But what's been happening is that whatever time Remco ships, those behind him ship more.

Will tomorrow be any different?

Ancizan is a great tempo climb for Remco, and too shallow for a long-distance attack by others, so I think the only time loss (which he can limit) would be from accelerations near the top of Adet.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

That was a disgusting ride by Hincapie. Biggest wheelsuck-win I've ever seen.

Maybe apart from Jérôme Cousin but his ride had a little more small-team-riding-smartly-charm than Hincapie's.

At least Pereiro received his karma-reward in extreme abundance the following year.

Well, Pereiro also thought he would receive 50,000 Euros, but Hincapie paid him 50,000 US Dollars, so he even let himself get tricked. Collecting that good Karma

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think the break will take the stage and that it will be a tactical affair behind, with Vingegaard frustrating Pogi by following his wheel constantly on the last climb.

The other way around. Pogi on Vingo's wheel most of the time only to stomp him in the final km.

 

[solo80k]

On paper there's a bunch of great climbers way down on GC for the break but in reality they all collectively seem to have zero form. But I'll still say Bardet.

Hard to pick anyone, that's true.

I think Badret isn't strong enough. Frank van den Broek, Carapaz, Tejada, Poels - if any of these guys are in the break, I wouldn't bet against them.

 

[Sciatic]

That was a disgusting ride by Hincapie. Biggest wheelsuck-win I've ever seen.

Maybe apart from Jérôme Cousin but his ride had a little more small-team-riding-smartly-charm than Hincapie's.

At least Pereiro received his karma-reward in extreme abundance the following year.

Yeah, that Hincapie climbing confirmed things were really rotten in Denmark (sorry Danes, blame Shakespeare not me)

 

[Netserk]

The other way around. Pogi on Vingo's wheel most of the time only to stomp him in the final km.

Would be fun. I don't think Pogi's pride would allow it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Would be fun. I don't think Pogi's pride would allow it.

This should be his way to win the race now. He has the lead and is way more explosive of the duo.

 

[Sciatic]

This time the GC guys might not chase done Ciccone so I think he’ll have a good shot at the stage. It would normally seem like a stage for the break, but the breaks aren’t getting anywhere this year and the 2nd tier climbers are either doms or performing poorly (or both) thus far.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The passage through Lourdes will be the ideal time to say a little prayer. It will be necessary.

Jonas is the best climber in this Tour. The fact that he's wearing the polka dot jersey proves it. He'll probably join the break, aiming for the KoM points. I also hope to see guys like Healy, Carapaz, Bardet, Lutsenko, Simon Yates, Gaudu and Lenny Martinez (#154 in the GC!), but it's unlikely that they'll get the freedom to ride for the stage win.

The Tourmalet will probably be drilled by UAE to create a selection of the best GC riders and their strongest helpers.

Pla d'Adet has its steepest part in the beginning, so it lends itself to attack from the foot. The most famous edition was in 1976, when Lucien Van Impe won the stage and took yellow.

 

[kingjr]

Yeah, that Hincapie climbing confirmed things were really rotten in Denmark (sorry Danes, blame Shakespeare not me)

There were people who were legitimately afraid after the suspension of Ullrich and Basso that Hincapie might win the Tour 2006.

 

[Medvind]

So what is the likliehood we will see Jumbo LAB start pacing on Tourmalet with maybe Laporte, Tratnik and Leeman, and then Benoot and/or van Aert on the d'Anczian, and finally Benoot/van Aert go hard first 1k on d'Adet, then Jorgenson and Kelderman takes over before Vinge launches?

Or will Jumbo LAB wait until Sunday?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So what is the likliehood we will see Jumbo LAB start pacing on Tourmalet with maybe Laporte, Tratnik and Leeman, and then Benoot and/or van Aert on the d'Anczian, and finally Benoot/van Aert go hard first 1k on d'Adet, then Jorgenson and Kelderman takes over before Vinge launches?

Or will Jumbo LAB wait until Sunday?

Not sure but Visma-LAB should tire Teddy out so they need to set high pace during at least one of the stages. Otherwise Pogi will smoke both MTFs.

 

[Cookster15]

I have memories of watching Rominger force a grimace from Indurain in 1993. Yes the profile and stats suggests Pla d’Adet is over categorised. On the record, it wasn't shaken by Marco Pantani so yes it will be vulnerable tomorrow.

I think after the shock of stage 11, Pog will be marking Vingegaard now, at least to the finish. Are their bonus seconds on the MTF? Pog and Vingegaard to finish together.

 

[ice&fire]

Not sure but Visma-LAB should tire Teddy out so they need to set high pace during at least one of the stages. Otherwise Pogi will smoke both MTFs.

I don't know how effective that can be if Jonas runs out of teammates before Teddy

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't know how effective that can be if Jonas runs out of teammates before Teddy

Jonas single handedly will eliminate all UAE superdoms with his attack. However he wont get rid of Teddy if the pace earlier is too slow and Teddy rides defensively.

 

[Didinho]

Still think Pogi will try to make it as hard as possible this weekend and win the stage with a minute and more. If not attacking he’ll win the sprint against Vingo. Hope Remco can stay consistent.

 

[meat puppet]

Zenon Jaskula! Still remember that tour. The current punks have nothing on him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Still think Pogi will try to make it as hard as possible this weekend and win the stage with a minute and more. If not attacking he’ll win the sprint against Vingo. Hope Remco can stay consistent.

I dont think making the race as hard as possible is the way to go for UAE vs Vingo. They threw a kitchen sink on Wednesday and failed an now realize Vingo's power. If I were Pogs DS the plan would be simple: stick to Jonas wheel and if feeling good attack in the last km to increase the GC gap a bit more. its on Jonas to attack first now, he is losing in the GC.

 

[staubsauger]

I dont think making the race as hard as possible is the way to go for UAE vs Vingo. They threw a kitchen sink on Wednesday and failed an now realize Vingo's power. If I were Pogs DS the plan would be simple: stick to Jonas wheel and if feeling good attack in the last km to increase the GC gap a bit more. its on Jonas to attack first now, he is losing in the GC.

Pogačar needs to attack on Plateau de Beille IMHO to distance Vingegaard. Otherwise Isola 2000 - Bonette remains a big potential achilles verse for Teddy and a chance to flip the game for Vingegaard.

I understand why Pogačar was tempted to attack on Wednesday. The hilly terrain with the short, punchy climbs and technical descents are his home turf.

IMHO he should have saved energy for a big attack up towards Plateau de Beille however. He shouldn't race conservatively there as he might regret it in the Alps. At least if Vingegaard really gets stronger.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogačar needs to attack on Plateau de Beille IMHO to distance Vingegaard. Otherwise Isola 2000 - Bonette remains a big potential achilles verse for Teddy and a chance to flip the game for Vingegaard.

I understand why Pogačar was tempted to attack on Wednesday. The hilly terrain with the short, punchy climbs and technical descents are his home turf.

IMHO he should have saved energy for a big attack up towards Plateau de Beille however. He shouldn't race conservatively there as he might regret it in the Alps. At least if Vingegaard really gets stronger.

If Pogacar races conservatively he is 1'30' ahead of Vingo after this weekend and has more in store for the final weekend, where Vingo will need a long range attack against UAE superdoms or miraclous ITT (if Pog has enough energy and avoids bad day it will likely fail). Obviously if Pogacar senses some Vingos weakness this weekend he can go for it, they know each other well so he should smell blood.

 

[tobydawq]

Well, Pereiro also thought he would receive 50,000 Euros, but Hincapie paid him 50,000 US Dollars, so he even let himself get tricked. Collecting that good Karma

I never heard that, but aren't those two things around the same?