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Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 14: Pau - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet 151.9km

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Still think Pogi will try to make it as hard as possible this weekend and win the stage with a minute and more. If not attacking he’ll win the sprint against Vingo. Hope Remco can stay consistent.

I dont think making the race as hard as possible is the way to go for UAE vs Vingo. They threw a kitchen sink on Wednesday and failed an now realize Vingo's power. If I were Pogs DS the plan would be simple: stick to Jonas wheel and if feeling good attack in the last km to increase the GC gap a bit more. its on Jonas to attack first now, he is losing in the GC.
 
I dont think making the race as hard as possible is the way to go for UAE vs Vingo. They threw a kitchen sink on Wednesday and failed an now realize Vingo's power. If I were Pogs DS the plan would be simple: stick to Jonas wheel and if feeling good attack in the last km to increase the GC gap a bit more. its on Jonas to attack first now, he is losing in the GC.
Pogačar needs to attack on Plateau de Beille IMHO to distance Vingegaard. Otherwise Isola 2000 - Bonette remains a big potential achilles verse for Teddy and a chance to flip the game for Vingegaard.

I understand why Pogačar was tempted to attack on Wednesday. The hilly terrain with the short, punchy climbs and technical descents are his home turf.

IMHO he should have saved energy for a big attack up towards Plateau de Beille however. He shouldn't race conservatively there as he might regret it in the Alps. At least if Vingegaard really gets stronger.
 
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Pogačar needs to attack on Plateau de Beille IMHO to distance Vingegaard. Otherwise Isola 2000 - Bonette remains a big potential achilles verse for Teddy and a chance to flip the game for Vingegaard.

I understand why Pogačar was tempted to attack on Wednesday. The hilly terrain with the short, punchy climbs and technical descents are his home turf.

IMHO he should have saved energy for a big attack up towards Plateau de Beille however. He shouldn't race conservatively there as he might regret it in the Alps. At least if Vingegaard really gets stronger.

If Pogacar races conservatively he is 1'30' ahead of Vingo after this weekend and has more in store for the final weekend, where Vingo will need a long range attack against UAE superdoms or miraclous ITT (if Pog has enough energy and avoids bad day it will likely fail). Obviously if Pogacar senses some Vingos weakness this weekend he can go for it, they know each other well so he should smell blood.
 
Still think Pogi will try to make it as hard as possible this weekend and win the stage with a minute and more. If not attacking he’ll win the sprint against Vingo. Hope Remco can stay consistent.
Jumbo LAB will be thankful if UAE rides hard because they think the harder it is the better for Vinge. And UAE might be a little hesitant after stage 11.
 
Probably the stage for the breakaway artists.

Bardet, Gaudu, Healy for the stage win and / or the KOM on the Tourmalet? Maybe even Hindley? Anyone else that can be expected tomorrow?

I think the big guns are waiting for the big mtf at the Plateau de Beille. Maybe they surprise us instead. Who knows?

Still should be great entertainment with the breakaway fight and the pitoresque landscape of the Pyrenees!
 
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Pog said the Livigno stage was the hardest stage profile he’s ever done, and it felt to me like a test for the Tour, specifically stage 15 perhaps. I think that stage scares him and he wants to be at his best for it.
So maybe Jumbo LAB should drill it tomorrow, betting that Vinge will recover better than Pog to sunday. Tourmalet and d'Anzican are not too steep and looks quite good for a hard-pacing Jumbo train.
 
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Pog said the Livigno stage was the hardest stage profile he’s ever done, and it felt to me like a test for the Tour, specifically stage 15 perhaps. I think that stage scares him and he wants to be at his best for it.
I think more likely stage 19 scares Pog more but Vingegaard has been surprising us and might try something earlier if he's feeling good.

Livigno stage in the Giro was 222km and finished at 2,387metres. Stage 15 of this Tour is PdB which is 198km finishing at 1,780metres.
 
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They shouldve just done that stage again, to think what Pogi and Vingo could do with this, granted they arent George Hincapie of all people, but they might come close


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Brutal stage.
 
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If Pogacar races conservatively he is 1'30' ahead of Vingo after this weekend and has more in store for the final weekend, where Vingo will need a long range attack against UAE superdoms or miraclous ITT (if Pog has enough energy and avoids bad day it will likely fail). Obviously if Pogacar senses some Vingos weakness this weekend he can go for it, they know each other well so he should smell blood.
Isn't there a chance that Pogacar races conservately and Vingegaard still drops him?
I don't think is that impossible to Vingegaard push more w/kg on Pla d'Adet and especially Plateau de beille. Even more if they make the stages super hard.
 
On paper this stage looks more like the appetizer for the main event on Sunday, but the way this Tour has been ridden a total hammerfest would not surprise me one bit. I'm in the camp of folks who think the smart call this weekend is for Pog to just follow Jonas. Like it or not he's got to start thinking ahead to 19, 20, and 21, and should not be wasting his team or himself just to try to gain15-20 more seconds. Obviously if Jonas shows any weakness then yes, drop the hammer, but in my view if he gets to Sunday night and has come out even with Jonas the weekend has been a success.