Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 14: Pau - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet 151.9km

[meat puppet]

If Vinge is clearly up to it, but the team is not, he should just ride hard on the suitable climbs and see how it goes. The recipe is for well-done Pogo stick in the third week, anyway.

If he's not there will likely be a Pogo attack and then it's game on.

 

[SHAD0W93]

With a man down, I think UAE will wait until the last climb before going full USPS. Then it will be who can follow and Visma will be happy with the GC guys coming in together.
If Pogi can not drop Vingegaard then the PR/mind games will be wratched up a nothch.

UAE has been a man down the whole race.

 

[Miha81]

UAE has been a man down the whole race.

Exactly. No big difference although it seems that they were counting on him in 2nd part of the race.

 

[movingtarget]

Not convinced the break will hang on. So far the breaks haven't been well organized or big enough. I can see them getting chased down on the final climb. UAE have the super team and should put them to full use on this stage. Be interested to see what Remco can do. Usually he drops off but does a good job of damage control and finds a rhythm he's comfortable with. Can any of the riders behind him do something ? Trouble is half of them are riding for Pogacar. This stage should be the best indicator of Vingegaard's condition so far and what to expect next week. Might be a few more riders struggling to make the time cut. Expect the EF riders to get into the break again same with Groupama, Ineos and maybe also Bora after Roglic's exit.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think there's some merit to Pog training for longer efforts more specifically than previously and being better at them. At least thats the hope from mou that Im clinging onto, because I think right now Jonas is the slight favorite. As for today, I think a big break goes and wins unless Visma goes ham already today - which I think they won't because of stage 15 which is better, but that doesn't mean they cant try today. I think UAE ride completely different from now, because in theory Pogacar should be the best wheelsucker (even better than Jonas) in the entire peloton due to his ability to accelerate and sprint. So thats the tactic that I hope he applies now - he hoped the advandtage would be 2-3 minutes, it isn't, but this is not a catastrophe either. Vinge still has to make up time and he cannot just rely on the ITT. Thats what too dangerous.

UAE losing Ayuso means very little in my estimation. Almeida and Yates should be enough now that they don't need to go on the offensive no more.

 

[Lequack]

How can Visma always conjure up this heat every year? Every time Jonas won there hasn't been any col stages in the mountains, it's quite the meteorological achievement.

 

[dobrien]

A bit of 80s music should do it:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwrYMWoqg5w

LOL, wow, does this one ever bring back memories! What a great song, and how can you not love a band named after a Star Trek character?!? Almost (ALMOST) made me want to go dig up my old KAS jersey and take it out for a spin...

edit: Thanks a lot, I had to go do a search for "1987" hits and now I'm watching Bananarama videos....

 

[Dazed and Confused]

It would be surprising if Vinge and Pogi doesn't race risk averse today, so race action will probably have to come from a strong break. The good old two races in one scenario. I like to see a good climber who have lost a bundle of time winning today.

 

[Medvind]

If Vinge and his team feel relatively fresh Jumbo LAB will set a fairly hard pace today to make the stage hard. It's obvious that it is more "easy" for Vinge to drop a tired Pog than a fresh one, and Pog's attacks are also less devastating when he is more fatigued which makes it less hard for Vinge to follow them.

The stage is also fairly suited for Visma LAB's doms, Tourmalet and d'Anzcian are not super steep, so they should be able to set a hard steady pace on those to climbs.

But trying to make the stage hard is also in line with Visma's strategy how to win the tour. They have the belief that Vinge has edge over Pog in the high moutains and recovers better than him in the 3rd week if the mountain stages (and other stages like the one yesterday) are ridden hard.

Question marks is of course if Vinge is prepared enough for the tour or not, and if Visma doms are strong enough to make it hard.

 

[gregrowlerson]

How can Visma always conjure up this heat every year? Every time Jonas won there hasn't been any col stages in the mountains, it's quite the meteorological achievement.

Come on, I know the forum doesn't think much of ASO, but to say they haven't included any col stages is a little harsh

 

[Miha81]

How can Visma always conjure up this heat every year? Every time Jonas won there hasn't been any col stages in the mountains, it's quite the meteorological achievement.

It is July afterall and summers tend to be hot lately. Unless Visma van is actually geoengineering tool 🤣😂

 

[Blanco]

Vinge to attack on the last climb, for the first time in this year's Tour. We'll see if Pog can hang on. If Pogacar attacks himself, I think he will make a mistake.
Curious to see how Remco will do...

 

[Heston]

How can Visma always conjure up this heat every year? Every time Jonas won there hasn't been any col stages in the mountains, it's quite the meteorological achievement.

Breaking news: Europe is warm in July

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Just read that the first yellow jersey was awarded in Pau, in 1919, as the small green armband worn by the leader wasn't easy to see. But "Eugène Christophe, for his part, was initially none too pleased about being asked to wear the yellow jersey, claiming that he was mocked by the other riders for looking like a canary".

Wasn't aware of that bit of cycling history.

 

[Rackham]

Vinge to attack on the last climb, for the first time in this year's Tour. We'll see if Pog can hang on. If Pogacar attacks himself, I think he will make a mistake.
Curious to see how Remco will do...

If Evenepoel holds on without time loss versus Rodriguez & the other podium contenders, he'll have done a remarkable job & made a breakthrough on this sort of terrain. If he actually drops them & really establishes himself as the third best climber (like he did on the Galibier), then it'll be even more impressive. Even though tomorrow is 'harder' on paper, this stage is still a huge, huge test after two weeks of racing.

As for Pog if he gets dropped by Vingegaard here... then oh boy, it'll be a very difficult final week for UAE.

 

[Lequack]

It is July afterall and summers tend to be hot lately. Unless Visma van is actually geoengineering tool 🤣😂

It's their control van. What do you think they control if not the weather?

 

[danielovichdk2]

Will be raced from UAE from the first climb. Vingegaard will be isolated on the last but will keep the wheel of Pog. Remco to lose podium today.

 

[madthebad]

Unfortunately for Pogi, he needs to come up with some crazy attack before the last climb to beat Vingegaard in this kind of stage. Even this "weak" version of Vingegaard will crack him if they go mano a mano on a HC climb.

 

[Stubb]

WvA in the break, he will wait for Jonas and Pogi on the last climb and he then will drop Pogi (again) by going nuclear.

This, but with Matteo jorgenson in the role of wva.

 

[fbjim]

my hot takes are that the psychological impact of Le Lioran is overrated, and that it is even with a slight advantage to Vingegaard, who has the problem of having to make up a minute.

i also don't think this is a break stage. flat start means the break will have a good number of sprinters trying to beat the time cut, versus tomorrow where the uphill start means a strong climber/strongman break will form.

 

[ice&fire]

If Evenepoel holds on without time loss versus Rodriguez & the other podium contenders, he'll have done a remarkable job & made a breakthrough on this sort of terrain. If he actually drops them & really establishes himself as the third best climber (like he did on the Galibier), then it'll be even more impressive. Even though tomorrow is 'harder' on paper, this stage is still a huge, huge test after two weeks of racing.

As for Pog if he gets dropped by Vingegaard here... then oh boy, it'll be a very difficult final week for UAE.

From what we've seen so far, Remco will lose time to Rodríguez only if we turn the route upside down literally, to have more descending than climbing.

 

[slim charles]

I hope UAE or Visma put someone strong in the break to make the other team work.

I hope Tadej attacks again, even though it would probably be detrimental to his ambitions but my entertainment is more important than his goals.

 

[tobydawq]

Rick clarified my point for me, but.. my point was simply, if Pog is riding conservatively (meaning trying to save energy, not going thermonuclear) and he STILL gets dropped by Jonas tomorrow, then I'm simply assuming at that point Jonas will be able to nuke Pog at will, without needed a train, given the difficulty of the upcoming stages/accumulated fatigue in Pog. Which is (I'm thinking) just a different way of saying what Rick already said.

But Pog us always superior if it hasn't been really hard.

 

[tobydawq]

How much does Vingegaard really need the overall stage to be extremely hard though?

I think if they get to a point where they are like they were in 2022, Vingegaard just needs to commit to an attack fully and he can drop Pogacar.

Right, as we saw on Cauterets-Cambasque.

Can I use that example here or can it still be dismissed due to it being too early in the race?

 

[danielovichdk2]

Vingegaard has Pogs number. We have seen it before. The long climbs raced hard and his slightly larger body mass is his archiles heel.