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Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 19: Embrun - Isola 2000, 19/07 144.6k

Stage 19: Embrun - Isola 2000, 144.6k​

There are barely 200 kilometres to cover in the final three days, and yet this is by far the hardest triptych of the race. This stage is the first part of this decisive trilogy, taking in the summit of the European cycling season, and also the best designed mountain stage of the race.

The route

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This final Friday starts in Embrun, the capital of the upper Durance valley from Roman times until it was outpaced by Gap. Most of its history is rather similar to that town – founded to safeguard the Montgenèvre route, the same two devastating sackings – except that it was much more important, serving as a provincial capital for part of the Roman era and subsequently as a bishop’s seat until the French Revolution. The loss of this status, coupled with the growth in importance of the Col Bayard route, seem to have contributed to its decline relative to Gap. For the Tour, it is also not as useful a stopoff, although this will still be its seventh stage start (six of which have come since 2008, when it had two stage starts).

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The first 20 kilometres are still relatively easy, a section that ends with the intermediate sprint in Guillestre.

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Here, the riders join the route of the decisive final mountain stage of the 2016 Giro – in fact, both stages are the same except that that stage started in Guillestre and came through Isola 2000 at 15k from the line rather than finishing there. From here on out, the stage follows two-and-a-half cycles of the following pattern: big climb, big descent, then a false flat downhill until the next climb starts. The first of these climbs is the easiest, and it’s both untraditional and undeserved for Col de Vars to be a HC.

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After passing through the Ubaye valley once more, it’s on to the highest pass (not paved road, as is often incorrectly claimed) in Europe, Cime de la Bonette. It is in a bit of an isolated spot, and as such has only seen the Tour four times so far (for the last time in 2008, and most recently from this side in 1993, which was essentially a supercharged version of this stage with Izoard before the same final three climbs). And here’s another aspect in which this Tour mirrors the Giro: the highest climb is handing out additional mountain points – in this case, double the amount awarded on other HCs.

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And then, it’s time for the big MTF. It isn’t quite as hard as Bonette and the steepest stuff comes early, making it a good pick for a big MTF this late in the race. It also definitely should have been a HC, and the fact that it isn’t confirms that we’re back in the ‘GC riders winning the polkadots without even trying’ phase of the ‘ASO don’t know what they want from the KOM competition’ cycle. I give it a maximum of five years until the ‘the polkadots shouldn’t be won by riders who are nowhere near the best climbers’ phase recommences.

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Isola 2000 is the southernmost of the main ski stations in the French Alps, and also the only useful base of anywhere near this altitude that’s anywhere near Nice. This makes it a popular base for altitude training, which is the only thing the peloton will know it from as the only pro race that’s ever finished here was that 1993 Tour. Once again, it isn’t exactly the most idyllic place in the Alps.

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What to expect?

Col de la Bonette is probably the single best place to attack from range in this year’s Tour, so this could be a cracker if the GC situation is right. If nobody is willing to attack in places that aren’t the upper slopes of MTFs, on the other hand, this could be a day where the main GC riders all finish together, but that’s the kind of risk you have to take when designing your final mountain bloc.
 
Time to see if Vingegaard can finally pull something off against Pogtani.
I am curious if Visma sees a podium as success? I would love to see Vingegaard just lay it out there and set a tempo himself and try for a stage victory however unlikely. For me bold is better than smart, today's unlikely hero remainder that going for it can be awesome!! There is certainly danger but when you look at the drop off between 4th w Almeida at 13 minutes back.. Just go for it..
 
I am curious if Visma sees a podium as success? I would love to see Vingegaard just lay it out there and set a tempo himself and try for a stage victory however unlikely. For me bold is better than smart, today's unlikely hero remainder that going for it can be awesome!! There is certainly danger but when you look at the drop off between 4th w Almeida at 13 minutes back.. Just go for it..
I think Visma is still all in. 3 min is possible if Pogacar cracks and however unlikely, there’s still a chance.

Going to be chaos with satellite riders up the road on all GC teams and huge pace on the climbs. Somebody out of the top 3 will crack.
 
Zomegnan would consider this stage to be for sprinter.

Jokes aside, things are going to get serious. What do you expect? I think Visma will just pace hard and bet on a good day for Vingegaard + a suboptimal day for Pogacar. I don't see what else they could do, really.
I think they should pace the race as if the summit of Bonette is the finish line. If you soft pedal Vars and try to put satellite rider in the breakaway it be harder to get separations and Pog can also use his satellite rider in the easy terrain (or even Yates and Almeida from GC-group).
 
Zomegnan would consider this stage to be for sprinter.

Jokes aside, things are going to get serious. What do you expect? I think Visma will just pace hard and bet on a good day for Vingegaard + a suboptimal day for Pogacar. I don't see what else they could do, really.
No break should survive Bonette. That's UAEs only job.

Visma should put someone in the break to bridge to on Bonette, so Vingegaard can put in his initial acceleration and then have someone pull really hard for a short period of time.
 
I think we’re going to get “I’m gone, I’m dead.” 2.0. Only question is if it’s Pogacar, Vingegaard, or Evenepoel. Personally I want Pogacar to win, Evenepoel to move up into second, Vingegaard to lose 5-6 mins to Landa and Almeida (who finish third and fourth on the stage, and Landa to move over Almeida to set up an interesting final two stages for third.

Evenepoel and the team said he’s going to try for second and like the stages coming up. Visma is a wildcard and Vingegaard said he will try anything to win overall. I think Visma is going to ride as hard as possible, Vinge might try a flier, but someone on the podium is cracking.
 
No break should survive Bonette. That's UAEs only job.

Visma should put someone in the break to bridge to on Bonette, so Vingegaard can put in his initial acceleration and then have someone pull really hard for a short period of time.
Vingegaard needs to do another Plateau de Beille hoping he can push more watts than Pogacar. There is absolutely no way he can create a gap with just his acceleration.
 
I won't do any predictions as anything can happen on a hard stage like this. Would love stage to be a tad longer but 4.400 meters of climbing on hot day should done damage to some if raced properly.

I am wondering if top GC guys will attack each other considering what follows on Saturday and Sunday. I guess they might as current gaps are big enough for go big or go broke tactics.