Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 19: Embrun - Isola 2000, 19/07 144.6k

[Valv.Piti]

I think Jonas is on the ropes as well, but you never know. Dropping Pog at Bonette AND having domestiques up front is highly unlikely, but hey, you never know.

Pog with 30 seconds to Remco

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So the Tour endgame is coming! The weekend everybody has talked about and every GC rider fears. Two hard Alpine stages and a difficult ITT. It will produce big gaps and even Pogacar can't be sure of his GC win. Tomorrow probably the hardest one: including the highest climb used in pro-cycling (Bonette) and long MTF at 2000 m.

The certain thing is that Visma and Vingo will attack. They are too far back to calculate and Vingo will maybe have his first try on Bonette already. Visma will try to send strong guys into a breakaway (to potentially help Vingo between the climbs) but UAE will want to catch them obviously. If they don't attack on Bonette (or fail to drop Pog) then Vingo will try in the first part of Isola. If he can't distance Pog the Slovenian will likely counter and gain more time (Visma realize it but they have nothing to lose at this point of the race). If Pog is vulnerable (for the first time in this Tour, everybody can have a weaker day) and Vingo feels very well then he can get a significant gap and keep his Tour chances alive. The Dane is kinda inconsistent in this Tour and great performances are mixed with worse (it could be associated with his rushed preparation) so it's not a given he will be super strong OFC.

It will be very hot BTW (heat test for Teddy, he would prefer a different weather surely).

 

[RedheadDane]

Let's hope everyone stays on their bikes!

 

[Izzyeviel]

Superjumbowillgoballisticpogacarwillbeatrocious

 

[scribers]

I think Jonas is on the ropes as well, but you never know. Dropping Pog at Bonette AND having domestiques up front is highly unlikely, but hey, you never know.

Pog with 30 seconds to Remco

I doubt we see Visma in another break this tour. The team race is on and it's better to just close it down in real time so Vingo has no assistance toward the base of Isola if something goes down on Bonnette

 

[Nick2413]

Temps and wind don’t seem to be too extreme, around 27C/80F most of the lower parts of the stage and slight crosswind from SW

 

[Cookster15]

Plateau de Beille told Visma they cannot win this Tour de France. I even think there is a 50/50 chance Vingegaard might crack. A fully fit Vingegaard might win the Tour again on Bonette. But he isn't.

Pog will attack on the Bonette then extend his lead to the finish at Isola. UAE will then control tomorrow's easier on paper but still dangerous stage.

 

[red_flanders]

Plateau de Beille told Visma they cannot win this Tour de France. I even think there is a 50/50 chance Vingegaard might crack. A fully fit Vingegaard might win the Tour again on Bonette. But he isn't.

Pog will attack on the Bonette then extend his lead to the finish at Isola. UAE will then control tomorrow's easier on paper but still dangerous stage.

I mean I wouldn't put anything past Pog, but I think that would be deeply crazy.

 

[slim charles]

I think [not saying anything particularly insightful here] Visma tries to make it very hard again. I just don't see them harming Pogacar - in fact [again, not saying anything new], Pogacar probably takes more time.

I hope Remco can overtake Vingegaard. I don't think it will be quite the 'I'm gone, I'm dead' for Vingo, but I just don't see him improving. Then again, I've been very often wrong.

Should be fun!

 

[Jack_89]

Pogacar will attack on Isola to take the stage and close the GC

 

[Red Rick]

And that was followed by a 287 km transition stage the next day. We wouldn't see one of those today either.

Lol. Insert Bobby B THOSE WERE THE DAYS gif here.

To me this queen stage is just not quite it. It's better than a pure MTF queen stage, but it's basically not hard enough for what it tries to do in my opinion, especially with Bonette coming in after like 70km of racing. This stage is essentially a slightly better version of the Cambasque stage of last year, which nobody in their right mind hailed as queen stage.

The main fix is easy. Add Izoard. Alternatively, you do Bonette twice with a loop over Col de la Moutiere, or in a particularly fantastical universe you just replace Vars with Parpaillon

 

[Red Rick]

For the race it's pretty lucky that there's a fairly significant cross/tailwind all day and a full on tailwind on Isola

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Let's hope everyone stays on their bikes!

Ryan Gibbons to avenge Augustin and win tomorrow!

 

[ice&fire]

Obligatory reminder how the result of a GT can be changed on a stage like this:

View: https://youtu.be/ceRjl4-LkhU?feature=shared

They didn't take the day before that one as a rest day

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

So the Tour endgame is coming! The weekend everybody has talked about and every GC rider fears. Two hard Alpine stages and a difficult ITT. It will produce big gaps and even Pogacar can't be sure of his GC win. Tomorrow probably the hardest one: including the highest climb used in pro-cycling (Bonette) and long MTF at 2000 m.

The certain thing is that Visma and Vingo will attack. They are too far back to calculate and Vingo will maybe have his first try on Bonette already. Visma will try to send strong guys into a breakaway (to potentially help Vingo between the climbs) but UAE will want to catch them obviously. If they don't attack on Bonette (or fail to drop Pog) then Vingo will try in the first part of Isola. If he can't distance Pog the Slovenian will likely counter and gain more time (Visma realize it but they have nothing to lose at this point of the race). If Pog is vulnerable (for the first time in this Tour, everybody can have a weaker day) and Vingo feels very well then he can get a significant gap and keep his Tour chances alive. The Dane is kinda inconsistent in this Tour and great performances are mixed with worse (it could be associated with his rushed preparation) so it's not a given he will be super strong OFC.

It will be very hot BTW (heat test for Teddy, he would prefer a different weather surely).

Agree with most, but I'd think stage 11 was a bit of a stinker for Pogacar, he lost a sprint to Vingo, and somehow got swallowed up by him again after having a very decent gap. Compared with PdA and PdB it can be considered a bad day.

I still have the fear he'll somehow explode himself, but than again we might as well see him winning by 3 minutes.
If he doesn't bonk I think Vingegaard won't be able to drop him, Pogis level is too high and the climbs may be long and high but are really not that steep. He won't outkick him to get him out of the slipstream either.

My prefered scenario is this:

On Bonette everything explodes and Remco goes, but Vingo doesn't follow to begin with. Than once Ramco has a good gap, Pogacar bridges and we see the Bromance ride away into the horizon to deliver Ramco's secod place.

 

[Netserk]

I just hope Vingegaard will have greater courage than what Pogi had the last two years after he was beaten. So a few half-hearted attacks on the last climb would be a disappointment.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I just hope Vingegaard will have greater courage than what Pogi had the last two years after he was beaten. So a few half-hearted attacks on the last climb would be a disappointment.

Hmmm? Pog attacked furiously on Spendelles (during Hautacam stage in 2022) but couldn't get a gap. He also crashed on the descent, he evidently had courage on that day. Last year after Loze it was over anyway, monster gap with only one moderate mountain stage left.

 

[Netserk]

Last year after Loze it was over anyway, monster gap with only one moderate mountain stage left.

And he was as courageous as Van Aert was today. Sad. Didn't even dare an attack on Petit-Ballon.

I also think his courage in 2022 has been massively overrated. All of what he did after Granon would pale in comparison to a committed attack on Bonette.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

This stage is essentially a slightly better version of the Cambasque stage of last year, which nobody in their right mind hailed as queen stage.

Slightly better? Vars > Aspin, Bonette > Tourmalet, Isola 2000 > Cambasque, flat between the two final climbs tomorrow << flat between the two final climbs on that stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Slightly better? Vars > Aspin, Bonette > Tourmalet, Isola 2000 > Cambasque, flat between the two final climbs tomorrow << flat between the two final climbs on that stage.

Thing that matters most is Bonette vs Tourmalet and I'm not that sold on Bonnette being that much harder cause the gradient is much lower.

Like if you ask me if I want this or a 2 climb stage with Agnello and Risoul I'd snap take the 2nd one most of the time.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Thing that matters most is Bonette vs Tourmalet and I'm not that sold on Bonnette being that much harder cause the gradient is much lower.

Like if you ask me if I want this or a 2 climb stage with Agnello and Risoul I'd snap take the 2nd one most of the time.

I mean, Agnel is probably the single best climb that has at least one of its sides in France...

 

[Colombiano Cadence]

Those talking about Visma and Jonas for tomorrow are watching a different race from me. Jonas is done for this TDF. He looks 100% cooked. He ain’t doing a damn thing because he can’t. Visma riders been jumping in breaks left, right and centre because they know as well. Wouldn’t surprise me if Visma try and win from break with Matteo tomorrow

 

[Stubb]

Pog on Bonnette, he wants the stage and maybe revenge, as dumoulin suggests.
battle for second is where the racing will be interesting: remco might do it on the climb but i fear the descent, maybe he should send landa in the break and see if he remembers those martinelli's tacticts he enjoyed back in the days.

 

[Monte Serra]

Maybe it's all bluff, but if Vingegaard tomorrow is the same we've seen after the last two stages (looked like he could barely climb the stairs on to the bus yesterday, skipping the cooldown and straight on to the bus today) then Remco has a fair shot at snagging 2nd.

Plateau de Beille told Visma they cannot win this Tour de France. I even think there is a 50/50 chance Vingegaard might crack. A fully fit Vingegaard might win the Tour again on Bonette. But he isn't.

I fully expect Remco to take at least a 1 minute on Jonas. Jonas will desperately try, but only crack himself. He might lose even more than Pogačar last year on Loze.

 

[Nick2413]

Jonas has still never cracked in the Tour. 2nd or 3rd best but never cracked or had a real bad day.