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Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

Page 13 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
You are right with the criteria you use. But Evenepoel undoubtedly has other strengths, such as daring to attack (as Pogacar has). Once he has a lead, he is difficult to catch back. If the big three work together to crack Evenepoel, he will indeed not have a chance. But it remains to be seen whether Vingegaard, probably not yet 100%, will take the initiative (to chase Evenepoel). And the relation between Vingegaard and Roglic ? Hm... I'm not sure. And Pogacar, having made hughe impression during the Giro..... I think Vingegaard and Roglic will stay in the wheel of Pogacar... at least the first part of the Tour.

Evenepoel has a chance to win this Tour indeed, if he reaches his top level on time. Vingo is likely to be absent or worse than in the previous years. Pogacar is obviously #1 favourite but I'm still not convinced about his strength in the last week of the race (Giro is not a joke, even if won by zillion minutes). As for his H2H vs Rogla, it could get quite interesting actually.
 
@Krzysztof_O , if I may break down your post as it contained a few good points:

Evenepoel has a chance to win this Tour indeed, if he reaches his top level on time.
I strongly doubt this. Remco is on form as we saw in the Dauphine TT, but maybe depends how injured he was after today. But more importantly we have only seen Remco climb good enough on one stage in the Vuelta. He will need to climb better than that as early as stage 4 of this Tour. Big test for Remco.

Vingo is likely to be absent or worse than in the previous years.
Agree. Vingegaard doesn't have enough time to reach his peak level because his injuries were way worse than Pogacar's mere broken wrist last year.

Pogacar is obviously #1 favourite but I'm still not convinced about his strength in the last week of the race (Giro is not a joke, even if won by zillion minutes).
I don't think this is an issue. Pogacar looks in a far better situation than Contador in 2011 who was an overwhelming favorite to win that Tour. Contador 2011 was still brilliant in the 3rd week even though he crashed in the first week, suffered in the Pyrenees and cracked on the Galibier stage won by Andy Schleck. Contador was still strong enough to get 3rd in the stage 20 TT that edition. And no way was this Giro close to the difficulty of the 2011 Giro - either the parcours, the competition (Astana) or the way Contador rode it (attacked much more than Pog). The Livigno stage also eased my doubts about Pogacar at altitude.

As for his H2H vs Rogla, it could get quite interesting actually.
Kind of agree. But Rogla is 34 now and I am sensing he has peaked. Roglic also crashed and hurt his shoulder today.
 
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While it would be reasonable to infer that Vingegaard and Roglic would have dropped Roglic, here’s a provacative fun fact: Roglic has never been dropped on a climb by either Pogi or Vingegaard when uninjured.

Note: Ignoring Vuelta stages when Roglic was riding to team orders.
Il Lombardia 2021 he was dropped by Pogi on the climb.

Unless you were talking about stage races.
 
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While it would be reasonable to infer that Vingegaard and Roglic would have dropped Roglic, here’s a provacative fun fact: Roglic has never been dropped on a climb by either Pogi or Vingegaard when uninjured.

Note: Ignoring Vuelta stages when Roglic was riding to team orders.
Yeah, I've seen this "stat" on twitter before which nicely ignores Cortals d'encamp 2019, Plataforma de gredos 2019, Peyresourde 2020, LBL 2021, Lombardia 2021, Olympics 2021 just from the top of my head.
 
While it would be reasonable to infer that Vingegaard and Roglic would have dropped Roglic, here’s a provacative fun fact: Roglic has never been dropped on a climb by either Pogi or Vingegaard when uninjured.

Note: Ignoring Vuelta stages when Roglic was riding to team orders.

It's a cool stat (if only for stage races), yet does anybody truly believe this is not just coincidence. Sadly ofc non injured Rogla is also a sight to behold before injured normal Rogla turns up again.
 
Yeah, I've seen this "stat" on twitter before which nicely ignores Cortals d'encamp 2019, Plataforma de gredos 2019, Peyresourde 2020, LBL 2021, Lombardia 2021, Olympics 2021 just from the top of my head.
Some of those are classics, so irrelevant. Some decent points in the others. I’d honestly forgotten about them because, at the time, I don’t think anyone thought Roglic was taking Pogacar seriously, so it was less of a drop than a can’t be bothered. I could be wrong, but I thought he waited for Dumoulin on Peyresourde. Cortals d’encamp 2019 Pogacar die straight up crush him, which I’d forgotten. It looks like he had a bad day. I don’t think Roglic does well in wet and cold weather. But that was a straight up drop. Plataforma de gredos 2019 at the time I think everyone thought Roglic was just not worried about Pogacar and was just preserving his lead without concern. With the benefit of hindsight, that ride looks continuous with what we have seen from Pogacar since then. Overall, I concede, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as some argue.
 
Cortals d‘Encamp 2019 is just classic Roglič crashing on the gravel.
It was a very good stage, definitely worth a rewatch.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sNFUGMr4QA

Dropped by Pogi? Rather crashed by motorbike:
On the gravel section, about seven kilometres before the finish, Roglic crashed due to a motorbike, which was positioned in the middle of the road after a bend.

 
Some of those are classics, so irrelevant. Some decent points in the others. I’d honestly forgotten about them because, at the time, I don’t think anyone thought Roglic was taking Pogacar seriously, so it was less of a drop than a can’t be bothered. I could be wrong, but I thought he waited for Dumoulin on Peyresourde. Cortals d’encamp 2019 Pogacar die straight up crush him, which I’d forgotten. It looks like he had a bad day. I don’t think Roglic does well in wet and cold weather. But that was a straight up drop. Plataforma de gredos 2019 at the time I think everyone thought Roglic was just not worried about Pogacar and was just preserving his lead without concern. With the benefit of hindsight, that ride looks continuous with what we have seen from Pogacar since then. Overall, I concede, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as some argue.
He didn't wait for Dumoulin on Peyresourde, he followed the first Pogacar attack and then either didn't have it or decided against closing the second one because he was more focused on Bernal.

If you take out classics your dataset for that statement is a bit of a joke because with these parameters "stage race" and "uninjured" you're just left with Itzulia 2021 in the last 4 years where neither could drop the other. Vingegaard makes even less sense because he was on the same team all the way...
 
Considering Jonas can win the Tour 2024, being at 80 percent and only Pogi is up there with Jonas, surely Pogi will just fly through the race and will win it easily. Unless i guess Jonas is truly at 82 percent, then he can beat Pogi too. Rogla obviously doesn't stand a chance, due to his age and riding skills. I mean c'mon.
 
He didn't wait for Dumoulin on Peyresourde, he followed the first Pogacar attack and then either didn't have it or decided against closing the second one because he was more focused on Bernal.

If you take out classics your dataset for that statement is a bit of a joke because with these parameters "stage race" and "uninjured" you're just left with Itzulia 2021 in the last 4 years where neither could drop the other. Vingegaard makes even less sense because he was on the same team all the way...
Yes, it looks like you do understand the point. The evidence is lacking.