Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

[Boehmand]

With the first round of important stage races over (and yes Pogacar still has to do Catalunya), I thought it meaningful for a thread to debate the big show down we all expect in summer.

The route can be found here: Tour de France 2024 route

The expected squads are as follows (the Soudal squad still with great uncertainty):

VISMA	UAE	BORA	SOUDAL
Vingegaard	Pogacar	Roglic	Evenepoel
Kuss	Yates	Hindley	Landa
Jorgenson	Ayuso	Vlasov	Van Wilder
Kruijswijk	Almeida	Martinez	Hirt
Benoot	Soler	Kämna	Vervaeke
Van Baarle	Sivakov	Denz	Alaphilippe
Tratnik	Wellens	Jungels	Cattaneo
Laporte	Politt	Sobrero	Asgreen

Race programme for the captains:

Vingegaard	Pogacar	Roglic	Evenepoel
	Milano-Sanremo
	Catalunya
Itzulia		Itzulia	Itzulia
			Amstel
		Fleche Wallonne	Fleche Wallonne
	Liege-Bastogne-Liege	Liege-Bastogne-Liege	Liege-Bastogne-Liege
	Giro d'Italia
Dauphine		Dauphine	Dauphine
Tour de France	Tour de France	Tour de France	Tour de France

Who does the route suit the best?

How do the squads stack up?

How will the race programmes impact the Tour?

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I’ve heard that the Tour is cancelled after Pogis numbers have been released by Mou.

 

[Boehmand]

I’ve heard that the Tour is cancelled after Pogis numbers have been released by Mou.

I've heard he can't catch his breath above 2000 meters, on stage 19 of this years Tour

 

[KZD]

Right now its looking more like the battle of the big 2.

Vingegaard has chosen the more traditional path once again but Pogačar's path should grant him a Giro win and the chance of still being competitive in the Tour as he is not racing that much anyway.

Remco and Roglič will probably fight for third place together with Ayuso, Hindley, Yates and maybe someone else that steps up.

 

[Rob5091]

Realistically, I think it's 3 guys and Pogacar as he's doing the Giro first. The other 3 are all in for the Tour so, even as good as Pogacar is, he comes with a slight disadvantage.

 

[Potomac]

podium...

Vingo
Rogo
Pogo

 

[Froome]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767134821468279223

View: https://twitter.com/VamosCiclismo/status/1767134821468279223

 

[Berniece]

My (obviously) biased podium:
1. Vingegaard
2. Evenepoel
3. Pogacar (tired because of Giro, otherwise he would be 2nd)

 

[Escarabajo]

The battle of the Big One!
Pogacar messed everything up when He decided to go to the Giro first. This was the year that He seemed to be really focus on GT. What a pity!

 

[scribers]

this sport would suck if the tour was the only pro race and everything else amateur races. Sometimes we talk about riders schedules as if this were so

 

[Brullnux]

Realistically, I think it's 3 guys and Pogacar as he's doing the Giro first. The other 3 are all in for the Tour so, even as good as Pogacar is, he comes with a slight disadvantage.

I don't think Remco and Roglic can compete with Pogacar at a GT, in all honesty. I'm also not sure he'll be as tired as we might think, the route is fairly easy and the field quite weak.

Looking at the last real Giro-Tour aattempts in Dumoulin and Froome, I think they showed there has been progress in managing the Tour-Giro gap. Bearing in mind Dumoulin had very poor preparation before the Giro, Froome was much less dominant than previous years, and the Giro a very hard race in 2018, I can very much see Pogacar not being overly hampered by the Giro.

 

[mou]

Pogačar will be affected by the Giro the same way @Froom's words affect me, which is 0 😆😆

 

[ashhutch1997]

Let's be real, it's the big 2, and then a big gap to the rest..

 

[Tim Cahill]

Same top 3 as 2023

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Same top 3 as 2023

Nah, there'll be two Visma.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I will make this unscientific BS prediction based on my own personal ranking of the three starter Pokémon in the Pokémon Blue Game Boy game.

3. Bulbasaur. It carries a bulb on its back which you hope will someday evolve into something powerful. Sounds a bit like GT Remco. Like a footballer, it's great on grass. I also seem to remember from the tv series that it was less cheerful than the other two starter Pokémon.
2. Charmander. It's red, hot and dangerous. It's a young, charming, cool, fiery dragon. That's obviously Pogačar.
1. Squirtle. I like water Pokémon the most. Also Blastoise, unlike Venusaur and Charizard, has actual weapons sticking out of it. Squirtle can also retract into its cozy, homely shell whenever it gets scared of the outside world. It goes without saying that it's Vingegaard.

As a joker, you also have your mortal enemy, Red Bull, with Roglič, Hindley and Vlasov. They will lie low and suddenly hit the others from different angles, much like Dugtrio, or in this case let's call it Rogtrio.

Froome is Snorlax.

 

[Valv.Piti]

1. Pogi
2. Vingegaard
3. I dno, my best bet would be someone like Hindley. Dont really rate Remco and Roglic that highly in TdF.

 

[Red Rick]

Glad we call this the Big 4, now I never have to defend Andy Murray from criticism ever again

 

[Netserk]

Glad we call this the Big 4, now I never have to defend Andy Murray from criticism ever again

Here we go again.

 

[Boehmand]

My own answers:

Who does the route suit the best?

To me it's Vingegaard, with especially stage 19 and the final day ITT being where he can potentially destroy the other 3.

How do the squads stack up?

I think UAE has the strongest squad, followed by Visma, Bora and Soudal (in that order).

However it will be interesting to see how a team with 1 captain, 5 lieutenants and 2 doms will function at the Tour.

How will the race programmes impact the Tour?

When the Tour starts, the number of race days for each is:

Pogacar: 31
Evenepoel: 31
Vingegaard: 25
Roglic: 24

Not as big a difference as I thought off the top of my head, but it is obviously a draw back for Pogacar to have less than 5 weeks restitution after the Giro.

 

[joseph89]

I’ve heard that the Tour is cancelled after Pogis numbers have been released by Mou.

After the lastest numbers leaked is it even a battle

 

[Red Rick]

Here we go again.

Those were better days

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

When the Tour starts, the number of race days for each is:

Pogacar: 31
Evenepoel: 31
Vingegaard: 25
Roglic: 24

Not as big a difference as I thought off the top of my head, but it is obviously a draw back for Pogacar to have less than 5 weeks restitution after the Giro.

Pog's only issue is that he usually can't contain himself. An Indurain style Giro win isn't necessarily a problem with the Tour in mind

 

[RedheadDane]

Glad we call this the Big 4, now I never have to defend Andy Murray from criticism ever again

He's not winning...

 

[Tim Cahill]

Those were better days

Think that's 2015? Stage 10 was the angriest I've ever seen the collective internet cycling community, at least alongside chaingate.

Tour over, Porte laughing as he went past Quintana, Contador/Nibali losing minutes and the birth of Geriant Thomas; Cobbled specialist come climber.

Sean Kelly asked for his thoughts after the stage, pauses for about 10 seconds and goes 'Well....... Unbelievable.'

They should use that climb again, a bloodbath.