Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

[wheresmybrakes]

I think there's too much time between now and July to see who is going and in what shape to make the podium/do well. But, if all goes well with all the riders, I reckon it's Vingo for the win, Pog for second and a shed full of riders that could make third place.

I would like to see Bernal have a super race and get as high up the GC as possible, maybe even a top 5.

 

[Salvarani]

There is a big two for this race.

Others are fighting for 3rd.

 

[Anderis]

I'm more interested to see who steps up outside of these guys, especially from the smaller teams. Mas? Lenny Martinez ? Pidcock ?

Never thought I would see a day when Ineos is referred to as a "smaller team".

 

[Elos Anjos]

My money is on Quintana

 

[Rob5091]

Remco is preparing peak form for July. He will impress girls and smash Skeletor even before Grand Depart!

That's some Kate Middleton quality photoshopping there!

 

[Rob5091]

I'm more interested to see who steps up outside of these guys, especially from the smaller teams. Mas? Lenny Martinez ? Pidcock ?

Unfortunately the "Lenny Martinez " Tour is next year - this year he's just down for the Vuelta.

 

[frisenfruitig]

My money is on Quintana

To do what? Participate?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@VayaVayaVaya you clearly have not been following the Pogacar thread lately.

I actually dropped in, but Mou’s brazen disregard for line breaks and structure was too much for me. It must be an acquired taste.

 

[Boehmand]

Pog's only issue is that he usually can't contain himself. An Indurain style Giro win isn't necessarily a problem with the Tour in mind

It isn't just that, it's that he is also going for Liege 2 weeks before the start of the Giro, which means he is maintaining a peak for 5+ weeks until the end of the Giro, and then only has 5 weeks to recover and start build up for another peak at the Tour.

The alternative is maintaining the peak for 13 weeks, which could work if the Giro (with lighter GC competition) was at the end of it, but can't when the end is the Tour.

He is definitely walking a tight rope.

 

[Escarabajo]

Given the track record when anticipating a multi-star showdown in a big race, chances are 1 of the 4 won’t make it to the start line or crash out in the 1st week. But I hope not!

That is correct. Whether it is a crash before the race, during the race or just a simple crack of performance. In 2015 Contador and Nibali were out in the first mountain stage. Froome then controlled Quintana better.

In this case I would bet on a crash and a crack. So there would be only 2 left.

 

[Boehmand]

To do what? Participate?

To magically appear in the midst of a front group of all the big classics guys, when it is rainy and there are crosswinds at play

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

In this case I would bet on a crash and a crack. So there would be only 2 left.

An other awesome duel between Roglic and Evenepoel, i can picture it already!

 

[AmRacer]

There's still a possibility all of them will be there in best shape.
It seems like most talking about Jonas and Tadej. But I think R&R can, and will, surprise. It's to early to count them out.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yeah, this is cycling. First you have to get to the Tour, then you do indeed have to finish it. If you are one of the pre race favourites and managed to do all that, then you will likely win!

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I never doubted Vinge would be at the Tour

It will be himself and Pog in the final week I think

R&R should be vying in the first week or so but other 2 are better climbers

 

[RedheadDane]

In this case I would bet on a crash and a crack. So there would be only 2 left.

So, it was you! You caused the Basque Crash. You jinxed them.



(Please, be aware that I'm not actually saying Escarabajo caused the crash by making a post about crashing.)

 

[Berniece]

I don’t think Vingegaard will be at 100%, and Pogacar will eventually feel the Giro in his legs. Which is good for the race and the odds of Evenepoel and Roglic. We’ll get a race between the four of them instead of two of them.

 

[RedheadDane]

I don’t think Vingegaard will be at 100%, and Pogacar will eventually feel the Giro in his legs. Which is good for the race and the odds of Evenepoel and Roglic. We’ll get a race between the four of them instead of two of them.

Wait. You're saying that in order for it to be a battle between the four of them instead of the two of them, the two of them needs to be sub-par?

 

[Berniece]

Wait. You're saying that in order for it to be a battle between the four of them instead of the two of them, the two of them needs to be sub-par?

Yes, because when they are all at their best I see it as:
Vingegaard > Pogacar >> Roglic/Evenepoel >>> Others

I haven't seen Roglic/Evenepoel proof that they are at the level of Pogacar and definitely not Vingegaard when it comes to a GT.

 

[RedheadDane]

Yes, because when they are all at their best I see it as:
Vingegaard > Pogacar >> Roglic/Evenepoel >>> Others

I haven't seen Roglic/Evenepoel proof that they are at the level of Pogacar and definitely not Vingegaard when it comes to a GT.

So, guess we just all gotta hope that Roglic and Evenepoel are going to recover fully from their injuries.

 

[AmRacer]

Yes, because when they are all at their best I see it as:
Vingegaard > Pogacar >> Roglic/Evenepoel >>> Others

I haven't seen Roglic/Evenepoel proof that they are at the level of Pogacar and definitely not Vingegaard when it comes to a GT.

I wouldn't put >>> between R/E and others.
R usually crashing out from one GT a year, last year he finished two 😲
E have had only had one good GT.

 

[Gigs_98]

Honestly, I was super sad after Itzulia, but if Vingegaard can actually ride in a somewhat decent shape, I might actually get more excited for the Tour than I was before the big crash. I really wouldn't rule out any one of them winning right now.

 

[Berniece]

So, guess we just all gotta hope that Roglic and Evenepoel are going to recover fully from their injuries.

So far so good. Roglic is fine according to Bora, and so is Evenepoel according to himself. I expect both riders to be at 100% at the TDF if they don't run into any new problems.

I wouldn't put >>> between R/E and others.
R usually crashing out from one GT a year, last year he finished two 😲
E have had only had one good GT.

If both of them are at their best, I don't see anyone coming close. Evenepoel showed this during the Vuelta of 2022, and Roglic has shown this multiple times at the Vuelta too. I can't help Evenepoel having gotten Covid last year, otherwise he would've won the Giro too.

 

[AmRacer]

So far so good. Roglic is fine according to Bora, and so is Evenepoel according to himself. I expect both riders to be at 100% at the TDF if they don't run into any new problems.


If both of them are at their best, I don't see anyone coming close. Evenepoel showed this during the Vuelta of 2022, and Roglic has shown this multiple times at the Vuelta too. I can't help Evenepoel having gotten Covid last year, otherwise he would've won the Giro too.

Rogla would've won anyway.
Jonas and Tadej can have a bad day and still be much better than the rest.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Roglic is clearly better than “the rest,” as evidenced by his 4 GT wins and 3 podiums, as well as his superiority at the most recent GT. I *think* Roglic is a step or two above Remco in GTs, but tough to really know. 2023 Vuelta was the first time we saw peak Roglic in years, and I don’t think we’ve seen peak GT Remco ever, and only close once at the 2022 Vuelta when he had a crash and faced Roglic coming back from a fractured vertebrae and dislocated shoulder in the Tour.

If you take Kuss out of last year’s Vuelta (or put him on a different team), I think Roglic would have won for sure, being the strongest in the first half and very strong at the end based on Angliru. Giro 2023 didn’t represent him at his best because he crashed and was coming off of off-season surgery. Etc.

This should be a great race.