Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

[Berniece]

Rogla, Mas or Poggi?

Mas

 

[shadowrider]

There are a lot of variables here, so I don’t think it’s super clear cut. But basically the key points are:

1. Roglic came into the Giro off of a very tough 2022 (crashes, injuries, setbacks, media blowback, etc.) and off-season surgery.
2. Remco came in arguably a little heavy.
3. Remco crushed everyone on the first ITT, beating Ganna, but didn’t put as much time into Roglic et al as many predicted.
4. Roglic launched his first attack on stage 8, a medium mountain stage, which resulted in Remco dropping 14 seconds to he, Tao, and G.
5. Remco won the second ITT, but by a lower margin.
6. Remco dropped out afterwards with Covid.
7. Roglic, Tao, and G all crashed on stage 14, with Tai getting the worst of it and dropping out, Roglic landing on his hip hard, necessitating multiple stitches in his hip, and G landing on top of Roglic and suffering no ill effects.
8. Roglic looked vulnerable on subsequent mountain stages and weaker than G in particular.
9. On the last stage, Roglic proves himself by far the strongest, crushing everyone on the climb during the final ITT despite a mechanical.

As a contextual point, I know someone who set a huge Pr in the marathon and qualified for Boston only to wake up the next day unable to function with a terrible case of Covid.

Evenepoel being dropped in stage 8 and winning the second TT by low margin, was already due to the (at that moment not yet detected) covidinfection. So, no conclusions possible. I'm convinced Evenepoel (in topshape at the time) would have beaten Roglic (not at his best at the time).

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Evenepoel being dropped in stage 8 and winning the second TT by low margin, was already due to the (at that moment not yet detected) covidinfection. So, no conclusions possible. I'm convinced Evenepoel (in topshape at the time) would have beaten Roglic (not at his best at the time).

Could be. Agree with the bolded. Many hypotheses possible, no conclusions.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's not like they won't get another chance in 2024.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Do big 4 have a private WhatsApp group? Pogi at the Giro be like i miss you guys.

 

[houtdffan]

Evenepoel being dropped in stage 8 and winning the second TT by low margin, was already due to the (at that moment not yet detected) covidinfection. So, no conclusions possible. I'm convinced Evenepoel (in topshape at the time) would have beaten Roglic (not at his best at the time).

Rog ended up losing time over stages 7-9, despite a very sick Remco. Same time in stage 7, Remco lost 14 seconds in stage 8 (most were because Remco took no risks on the descent, Rog only had 5 seconds at the top of the climb). Rog then lost 19-20 seconds in the TT

Rog couldn't even take time out of a sick Remco

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Rog ended up losing time over stages 7-9, despite a very sick Remco. Same time in stage 7, Remco lost 14 seconds in stage 8 (most were because Remco took no risks on the descent, Rog only had 5 seconds at the top of the climb). Rog then lost 19-20 seconds in the TT

Rog couldn't even take time out of a sick Remco

You ignored a lot of factors there, but OK. What’s your assessment of 2023 Vuelta?

 

[houtdffan]

You ignored a lot of factors there, but OK. What’s your assessment of 2023 Vuelta?

I've already said it many times.

Remco clearly stated before the tour that a podium and a stage win meant no more to him than winning 4 stages and finishing 12th.

After he lost the TT, he knew he couldn't win, so he shipped loads of time so he could have fun and win a few stages

 

[AmRacer]

I've already said it many times.

Remco clearly stated before the tour that a podium and a stage win meant no more to him than winning 4 stages and finishing 12th.

After he lost the TT, he knew he couldn't win, so he shipped loads of time so he could have fun and win a few stages

So Remco had become weaker and Rogla stronger, compared with the Giro?

 

[houtdffan]

So Remco had become weaker and Rogla stronger, compared with the Giro?

yep

only sensible as Remco decided to go all in on the WTT and not the Vuelta for some reason

 

[AmRacer]

yep

only sensible as Remco decided to go all in on the WTT and not the Vuelta for some reason

Always an excuse

 

[houtdffan]

Always an excuse

an excuse?

it literally is what happened

 

[Berniece]

Remco crushed everyone on the first ITT, beating Ganna, but didn’t put as much time into Roglic et al as many predicted.

More than 43s in only 19km’s against the Olympic champion TT? Not sure who expected more.

 

[Netserk]

After he lost the TT, he knew he couldn't win, so he shipped loads of time so he could have fun and win a few stages

You don't get dropped on Aubisque and chase hard until midway up Spandelles if that was the case.

 

[shadowrider]

Don't make it too complicated. Evenepoel had just a bad day, feeling he couldn't go deep in his effort. Once he realised he couldn' t come back, he (and his teamleaders) decided to stop his efforts to limit the damage. A good result in the GC was no longer possible. The right choice, as it turned out. He wasn't exhausted at the finish and was able to attack and win the next day. Also winning another stage, almost winning a fourth, taking points for the mountain jersey (and winning it), taking points for the "points" GC (almost winning that jersey too). At the end, making the right choice, he achieved more than most riders. Only GC-winner Kuss (and the Jumbo-team in general) were more successful.

The question is. Was the bad day/breakdown one time ? Or will we see that in every Grand Tour ? If it was a one time, than Evenepoel is a potential podium candidate. If not, and facing Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic and in a near future Ayuso, Evenepoel has to aim for stagevictorys, eventally for the polkadot jersey.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

More than 43s in only 19km’s against the Olympic champion TT? Not sure who expected more.

You’re right. I mixed up ITTs. Remco smashed this one for sure.

 

[AmRacer]

I'm positive peak Jonas would be equally dominant in a Giro with this competition.

 

[houtdffan]

any of Pog, Vingo, and Remco would be smashing this giro. Rog would also be several minutes ahead (assuming he decides to race and not suck wheel the whole time)

There is no competition

 

[Netserk]

any of Pog, Vingo, and Remco would be smashing this giro. Rog would also be several minutes ahead (assuming he decides to race and not suck wheel the whole time)

There is no competition

I don't think the lesser two could do what Pogi did today.

 

[AmRacer]

any of Pog, Vingo, and Remco would be smashing this giro. Rog would also be several minutes ahead (assuming he decides to race and not suck wheel the whole time)

There is no competition

Rogla didn't smashed G last year, and we know nothing how strong he is this year.
Remco hasn't smashed either, so far. Maybe he will one day, maybe not.
.
We have to wait until Dauphine to have an idea how strong R&R really are this year.

 

[houtdffan]

I don't think the lesser two could do what Pogi did today.

Remco likely would have done one of his raids on one of the medium mountain stages

 

[Netserk]

Remco likely would have done one of his raids on one of the medium mountain stages

What is his longest solo attack in a GT so far? While GC relevant, I think it was 4 km.

 

[Red Rick]

Likely both would lead comfortably but not by 7 minutes

 

[Red Rick]

What is his longest solo attack in a GT so far?

Like 30km but I take it you mean as a GC contender

 

[AmRacer]

Remco likely would have done one of his raids on one of the medium mountain stages

If he's in GC, Pog, Jonas and Rogla won't let him go.