I agree with this. I think Vingegaard is going to be really strong this year. There's a lot of recency bias because Pogi was so good last year, but people are ignoring two key things: 1) Jonas wasn't in top shape last year; and 2) he (and Visma) know how good Pogi was last year and so they know what they need to do to beat him. It's harder for Pogi, because he doesn't know how much better than last year JV can be. I just hope Pogi is preparing with a mind to how bad JV's preparation was last year (i.e. expecting him to be much, much stronger), rather than with a mind to his own superiority last year.
I agree - it's the great unknown - how good is Vingegaard.
And we can't even use Dauphine as a guide, because it's his first race after a very long break - and there are no big mountains the first 10 days of the Tour - so he is probably not at his peak there, and neither should Pogacar be.