Some news I'm surprised hasn't been talked about here yet.
Yesterday, ASO published the rules and regulations for this Tour, and there was quite the bombshell: the hilly stages will all award the same amount of points for the points classification as the sprint stages. (This is not currently reflected by the information on the official site, but a Wielerflits forum user emailed ASO and received confirmation that the site is not up to date in this regard, so the distribution below is definitive).
Between this and the points distribution for the KOM classification this year (five of the eight HC climbs, including the Souvenir Henri Desgrange which hands out double points are MTFs), I can only conclude that ASO's takeaway from last year's edition is that Pogacar should win even more things. Because he IMO starts the race as the favourite for every single jersey he is eligible for now.
Pogacar will score in the triple digits from the mountain stages alone, Philipsen is doing the flat sprints, and I expect Pogacar to outscore Van Der Poel in the first week hilly stages. That all amounts to a massive amount of points Van der Poel would need to make up from what little breakaway opportunities there are plus the intermediate sprints. If UAE are going to be policing moves with the green jersey in mind, the math actually becomes almost impossible.This may sound absolutely shocking coming from me, but it seems more like the ASO want Van der Poel to win green rather than Pogacar
You're probably right.Pogacar will score in the triple digits from the mountain stages alone, Philipsen is doing the flat sprints, and I expect Pogacar to outscore Van Der Poel in the first week hilly stages. That all amounts to a massive amount of points Van der Poel would need to make up from what little breakaway opportunities there are plus the intermediate sprints. If UAE are going to be policing moves with the green jersey in mind, the math actually becomes almost impossible.
Well, unless Philipsen is going to be deployed as a leadout man in the first week already, but I can't see that one happening.
The man who would have been able to hold off Pogacar (and do so pretty comfortably) is the good version of Van Aert, but the 2025 version will struggle to make it over some of these hills, get outmuscled in the sprints and therefore not matter.