Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 14: Pau – Luchon Superbagnères (182.6k)

[skippo12]

Can Lidl-Trek control the race for the first 70km or will Milan try to jump into the breakaway?

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Big gears, steel frame, wind in your hair. 1986 Tour de France

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946330442552021262

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1946330442552021262

That looks like pure pain but the bike is a work of art.

One of my earliest TdF memories is Millar and Delgado on this finish in 1989 - about 20 minutes of highlights on Channel 4.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Somehow i feel that a good break will form and hopefully for Rogla to slipstream in it and to halve the GC deficit. Riders from Visma, UAE ... likely in the group.

 

[Juan Pelota]

Somehow i feel that a good break will form and hopefully for Rogla to slipstream in it and to halve the GC deficit. Riders from Visma, UAE ... likely in the group.

Has Roglic ever gone in an early break? I can't remember him ever doing that. But I agree there will absolutely be a good break forming.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Has Roglic ever gone in an early break?

Usually he is positioned higher in GC and hence it doesn't even make much sense. Meanwhile on this race i feel that UAE and Visma wouldn't react instantly, if he tires tomorrow, other teams not really strong enough to bring it back. We'll see.

 

[SHAD0W93]

After the last two days the breakaway should win. Only way it doesn’t is if either Visma or Bora, Arkea, Uno-X, and Picnic try and finish Evenepoel.

 

[Rob5091]

Trek will want the sprint points so it looks like another 50km/h start to the day. The change in weather might have an effect although most guys will probably be glad of a 10C drop.
Remco to lose more time (yoyoing I guess) as will probably a few other top 10 guys. Fatigue will begin to set in as the speed so far has been crazy fast. If Visma are not conservative they could quite well blow up Vingegaard.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is for sure an interesting point in time, tactically. They meant to throw the kitchen sink at UAE and they certainly tried, but it's netted them nothing so far. It's actually pretty interesting if you place yourself in their shoes: what would you do? Keep going at it? I mean, week 3 isn't here yet. Unlikely as it may seem right now, Pogacar might still crack?
Or not. Which seems way more likely, but you know, that might be recency bias..
So what would you do? Stick to the plan or not? And what even should their plan B be? I can't really think of one to be honest...

Visma don't have much to lose. They have to try a long range attack at some point (probably with domestiques up the road) if they still want to win this race somehow. Obviously Pogacar needs to be weaker on that day (but instead of gaining 30' during an MTF attack they would hope for minutes during a 50-70 km attack). Obviously this could end up badly for Vingo and he could lose minutes (instead of gaining).

They already wanted to do it last year on Bonette but Vingo felt weak so they let Jorgenson fight for the stage. Maybe they think today is too early for such a move (and will just try a small attack at the end) and stage 18 (or 19) are better for such crazy things.

 

[BigCoward]

Visma don't have much to lose.

This. I don't understand people criticising their tactics. They have one very small route to victory, about the same odds as Dr Strange mentioned in the avengers.
They have to go hard as long and often as possible and hope Vingegaard has better recovery than Pog at some point.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Skjelmose to go nuclear today with endless success or he has to handover his entire wage to Quinn - or better; any lost GC time if that was an option.

I've been watching cycling races for 45 years and outright hating an active rider hasn't been on my mind - but c'mon - he should bwar in mind that thr entire team that has spent months preparing to ride dedicatedly for him - and then he takes it so lightly, like it ment nothing?

Win today or Kim Andersen will throw you down the street from your hotel room tonight.

Ridiculous he didn't report crystal clear a week ago, otherwise he could have ridden a 100% for Simmons by now Just read Hincapie's blog, I agree 112%.

 

[Psycat]

If Visma tries to make the stage super hard and gets punished by Pogacar for the gazillionth time in a row it would be almost as funny as it would be boring.

Y well the alternative is a breakaway, most of the time with a rather predictable winner, and the "GC contender(s)" riding in hand in hand.

Think I slightly prefer the former but not by much.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Skjelmose to go nuclear today with endless success or he has to handover his entire wage to Quinn - or better; any lost GC time if that was an option.

I've been watching cycling races for 45 years and outright hating an active rider hasn't been on my mind - but c'mon - he should bwar in mind that thr entire team that has spent months preparing to ride dedicatedly for him - and then he takes it so lightly, like it ment nothing?

Win today or Kim Andersen will throw you down the street from your hotel room tonight.

Ridiculous he didn't report crystal clear a week ago, otherwise he could have ridden a 100% for Simmons by now Just read Hincapie's blog, I agree 112%.

What did he say/do?

 

[search]

What did he say/do?

I honestly think he must be mixing some things up!? Hincapie doesn't even have a blog, as far as I can see.

On his podcast, he last week was upset that Simmons had to work for Milan this much. No idea how Skjelmose fits into this, who also said that he wouldn't go for GC from the start.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Skjelmose and Lenny are no- brainers in the breakaway. Battle for polka.

I would add Woods to this battle.

 

[Red Rick]

Skjelmose to go nuclear today with endless success or he has to handover his entire wage to Quinn - or better; any lost GC time if that was an option.

I've been watching cycling races for 45 years and outright hating an active rider hasn't been on my mind - but c'mon - he should bwar in mind that thr entire team that has spent months preparing to ride dedicatedly for him - and then he takes it so lightly, like it ment nothing?

Win today or Kim Andersen will throw you down the street from your hotel room tonight.

Ridiculous he didn't report crystal clear a week ago, otherwise he could have ridden a 100% for Simmons by now Just read Hincapie's blog, I agree 112%.

The team that brought Jonathan Milan and has the green jersey spent months preparing the TdF entirely for Skjelmose?

What is this absolute nonsense.

 

[Red Rick]

Has Roglic ever gone in an early break? I can't remember him ever doing that. But I agree there will absolutely be a good break forming.

Roglic was in breakaways quite frequently in 2016-2017, but as he developed into a GC rider, he stopped doing is. He famously won one of the biggest stages of the 2017 TdF from the break, dropping a little known Spanish climber by the name of Alberto Contador on the Galibier.

 

[KZD]

Two scenarios:

1- Big breakaway goes, no one chases, we have some GC action on the final climb but breakaway fights for the win. Arensman is my pick, looked really good on stage 10 and the climbs suit him.

2- Breakaway goes but Visma or other GC teams trying to drop Remco start putting a hard pace from the Tourmalet and the breakaway riders are ultimately caught. Pogacar gets his 5th stage win in this Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Two scenarios:

1- Big breakaway goes, no one chases, we have some GC action on the final climb but breakaway fights for the win. Arensman is my pick, looked really good on stage 10 and the climbs suit him.

2- Breakaway goes but Visma or other GC teams trying to drop Remco start putting a hard pace from the Tourmalet and the breakaway riders are ultimately caught. Pogacar gets his 5th stage win in this Tour.

Trek pulling breaks back because intermediate sprint

 

[Cookster15]

and Remco needs to try and get into the early break.

He'll need the head start for the Tourmalet, barring a Contador-like resurrection

Unfortunately Remco is not an explosive climber like Conti was. I am not confident for Remco's chances to resurrect his Tour. Seems more like his training wasn't right for whatever reason. If he loses less than a minute I will be surprised.

 

[KZD]

Trek pulling breaks back because intermediate sprint

Milan in the breakaway is a no-brainer to me.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Hoping for a crazy stage where Lidl fights for the points 70km in and Visma goes for a *** it lets roll charge on the tourmalet.

 

[Heston]

Hoping for a crazy stage where Lidl fights for the points 70km in and Visma goes for a *** it lets roll charge on the tourmalet.

I fear Visma will just send Kuss in the break for a stage win and that's it.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't really see the point in going hard on Tourmalet hoping Evenepoel drops. If he's 15th best and you reduce it to 10 guys and he comes back, then congratulations you spent more energy and he'll limit damage better like Hautacam. If he's 30th best, he'll drop 5+ minutes regardless.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Usually he is positioned higher in GC and hence it doesn't even make much sense. Meanwhile on this race i feel that UAE and Visma wouldn't react instantly, if he tires tomorrow, other teams not really strong enough to bring it back. We'll see.

Maybe but not so sure they let him go. . But certainly UAE / Visma won't reacte immedeately if Evenepoel tries to go.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Yeah, people are clowning on them but if Visma are actually serious about still wanting to try and Vingegaard not caring if he finishes 2nd or 4th (Grischas words) then they need to try today again. Instinctively you probably would want to lick your wounds after the last two days but slowly the stages where you can make a difference are running out, Unipuerto Ventoux will be a Pogacar wattfest and then you're left with only two Alpine stages that are almost less suited to a long range then today.

I've wondered for a while if the best strategy wouldn't simply be attacking with Vingegaard as early as possible and then having him and Pogacar solo the whole mountain stage Rasmussen style. The only thing that is going to beat Pogacar at this stage is his overconfidence (even admitted by UAE), he would probably work with Vingegaard and you're in a scenario where if for whatever reason something happens (bonk) you're to gain the most. "Making the stage hard and having satellite riders in the break itself" just won't do it anymore.