Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 2: Lauwin-Planque – Boulogne-sur-Mer (209.1k)

[hayneplane]

Every second of UAE's pre-race talk should consist of multiple team directors shaking Pogacar, slapping him on the face and telling him whatever he does, do not follow the stupid attack from inappropriate distance (30k+ to the line) that Julian Alaphilippe is about to do.

It's like Balotelli that time Mourinho spent his entire half time team talk begging him not to get a second yellow and he does it minute 46.

He reined himself in well today as I am sure the chimp on his shoulder was telling him to sprint today as it’s a small group you can get bonus seconds and Green Jersey points.

 

[Red Rick]

Wasn't Longwy an actual finish climb?

Tomorrow the last km isn't hard at all. I understand why a sprinter like Girmay for example thinks he could do something here as it depends on how hard they go on the climbs before. I think they'll go hard enough to ruin the strong sprinters' legs, but I'm not sure if Pog can beat someone like Van der Poel here.

Final climb was 1.6k 6% flattening out in the final few 100m. So the final climb was harder, and the steepest hill which was 800m 11% was closer to the finish too.

Tomorrow is all about the positioning going into that 15% climb.

 

[Samamba]

Final climb was 1.6k 6% flattening out in the final few 100m. So the final climb was harder, and the steepest hill which was 800m 11% was closer to the finish too.

Tomorrow is all about the positioning going into that 15% climb.

Yeah the stronger guys will have to use that climb. Finishing "climb" is basically only like 500m at 6% and then flattens out (last 100m are slightly uphill too).

 

[Monsi]

Wasn't Longwy an actual finish climb?

Tomorrow the last km isn't hard at all. I understand why a sprinter like Girmay for example thinks he could do something here as it depends on how hard they go on the climbs before. I think they'll go hard enough to ruin the strong sprinters' legs, but I'm not sure if Pog can beat someone like Van der Poel here.

I can see a scenario where UAE hammers that 1 km 10.6% climb with like 9 km to go and MVDP might not be able to follow Pogacar's attack. It relies though on Wellens and Narvaez being in a good position which is the question mark. I think Wellens will be fine. Not sure about Narvaez though.

Of course, if MVDP manages to survive (and sprinters like Girmay aren't there), then he should be the favorite for the stage win.

 

[Red Rick]

Profile wise the finale is actually very similar to the Montjuic circuit, but the narrow roads are gonna make it so much different.

 

[dercuforever]

Its forecasted 11 m/s winds tomorrow in Boulogne-sur-Mer .. I have only seen profile and not if its open fields , but this could be a game changer.. Im expecting Pog, Ving and Poel to be right at the top tomorrow. Will be exiting.

I did a cyclo there in June.
There are almost no trees, and when you are on the top of hills it's clearly open fields.
Haut pichot is quite hard already and should be used to reduce peloton to 30 people or it will be dangerous afterward.

 

[SHAD0W93]

The three aliens will ride off and Pogacar to win in a sprint over MVDP and Vingegaard.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I simultaneously hear on this thread that:
1) the final climb hits 15%
2) it's not that hard
Seriously, were you people torturers in a former life? I start to lose bowel control above 15% and you all are talking about a "bunch sprint".

 

[houtdffan]

I simultaneously hear on this thread that:
1) the final climb hits 15%
2) it's not that hard
Seriously, were you people torturers in a former life? I start to lose bowel control above 15% and you all are talking about a "bunch sprint".

a bunch sprint of Pog, Vingo, Remco, and Rog

 

[Rob5091]

If MvdP and Pogacar ride off with 30 km to go, leaving everyone else behind, then we can turn off our TV's and go on our hols for a fortnight.
Weather wise, it looks interesting for Sunday and Monday.

edit - Apparently Little Lenny M and the rest of Bahrain are just thinking of getting through the first week unscathed - https://www.idlprocycling.com/cycli...rain-victorious-reassures-fans-with-statement

 

[Sciatic]

I simultaneously hear on this thread that:
1) the final climb hits 15%
2) it's not that hard
Seriously, were you people torturers in a former life? I start to lose bowel control above 15% and you all are talking about a "bunch sprint".

You could have saved yourself that distress by looking at the stage preview to start this thread. The steepest bit of the final climb is 9% but only for 1/10 of a km.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If MvdP and Pogacar ride off with 30 km to go, leaving everyone else behind, then we can turn off our TV's and go on our hols for a fortnight.
Weather wise, it looks interesting for Sunday and Monday.

edit - Apparently Little Lenny M and the rest of Bahrain are just thinking of getting through the first week unscathed - https://www.idlprocycling.com/cycli...rain-victorious-reassures-fans-with-statement

Vingegaard should be able to stay with them to.

 

[KZD]

Hopefully no major crash but that run in into the last 3rd category climb will be crazy.

Van der Poel to win the from a small group sprint and take yellow with Pogačar taking bonus seconds.

 

[rghysens]

Does anyone really believes that VdP can follow Pogačar on a 1km climb of over 10%?
Barring bad luck, Pog wins.

 

[Red Rick]

I simultaneously hear on this thread that:
1) the final climb hits 15%
2) it's not that hard
Seriously, were you people torturers in a former life? I start to lose bowel control above 15% and you all are talking about a "bunch sprint".

I thought it was just a puncheur stage that probably wasn't hard enough to favor Pogacar over MvdP. I never considered any real sprinters.

Now I've looked at it in more detail, I'm slightly more sceptical about MvdP and think Pogacar has a better chance than I thought before. For me the question is how MvdP vs Pog would go on essentially a 2 minute W/kg bomb. But historically I don't think Pogacar has been that good on such efforts when it's fresh. The most common 2 minute climb in cycling is the Montjuic and that's basically Pogacar's worst performance last year.

That said, positioning is everything, and recovery after a hill like that matters a lot too. Montjuic on it's own does very little damage cuase it's too short usually, but this may feel more like Mur de Huy because it you do not carry much speed into the climb and because it's narrow and splits may fall anywhere.

 

[Cycling111]

Pogacar was some less explosive in 2024 Tour than he had been the rest of the season.
It showed in San Luca. That's because he focused more on training for the high mountains.

He'd win this stage if it were a spring classic, but today I've more doubts about his explosiveness.

Also, if it rains, the GC contenders won't take any risks on the descent. This isn't Strade; there are still 19 days left. VDP can take risks.

 

[dercuforever]

Does anyone really believes that VdP can follow Pogačar on a 1km climb of over 10%?
Barring bad luck, Pog wins.

This is not Poggio, both climbs have 300+m at over 12%.
Gravity will do its job on MVDP.

 

[Red Rick]

Does anyone really believes that VdP can follow Pogačar on a 1km climb of over 10%?
Barring bad luck, Pog wins.

It's not 1km. It's more lik 700m at ~13% average.

With climbs like thise nuance matters a lot. A 2'15 hill done unipuerto style is way different from La Redoute in Liege where everyone apart from Pogacar is already tired going in.

There's a reason Pogacar did poorly in Fleche in 2020 and 2022, why he didn't win either of stage 1 or 2 in 2021, why he was nowhere to be found when Van Aert selfishly dropped Vingegaard on stage 4 in 2022, or why he didn't drop frigging Narvaez off his wheel in stage 1 of the Giro in 2024.

Pogacar is not that well suited to this.

 

[fenns]

Does anyone really believes that VdP can follow Pogačar on a 1km climb of over 10%?
Barring bad luck, Pog wins.

Summit stats

Côte de Cavron-Saint-Martin	1.1km	5.9%		4	104.3km
Côte du Haut Pichot	1.2km	9.4%		3	179.3km
Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont	1.0km	9.5%		3	200.5km
Côte d’Outreau	0.8km	8.8%		4	203.8km

I would think MVDP has to try to get a lead before the Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont. If he's with the GC guys when they reach this he'll get dropped.

 

[armchairclimber]

Roglic may want a say in this.

 

[Berniece]

Does anyone really believes that VdP can follow Pogačar on a 1km climb of over 10%?
Barring bad luck, Pog wins.

This is not Poggio, both climbs have 300+m at over 12%.
Gravity will do its job on MVDP.

Like the Paterberg? Less long but much steeper

 

[fenns]

The betting for this stage

MVDP 32%
Pogi 23%
Wout 9%
Nys 5%
Remco 3%
Jonas 2.5%

I would say Jonas' chances are better than that - I could see him and Pogi together at the finish - toin-coss who wins the sprint

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic may want a say in this.

Don't fancy him to be well positioned anywhere.

If he miraculously does, he could pull his joke of looking 2nd best on the hardest climb and then getting like 5th in the final sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

The betting for this stage

MVDP 32%
Pogi 23%
Wout 9%
Nys 5%
Remco 3%
Jonas 2.5%

I would say Jonas' chances are better than that - I could see him and Pogi together at the finish - toin-coss who wins the sprint

Nys could easily be the top favorite for me if he hadn't crashed yesterday. This is the sort of stage profile that suits him extremely well

 

[RedheadDane]

Bit wet at the start.