Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 5: Caen – Caen (33.0k, ITT)

[hayneplane]

Surely Evenepoel, Vingegaard and Pogacar will top 3 this. Could be any order, but I still expect Evenepoel to win.

With Ganna and Bisseger out, Wout not the best he has been and Kung/Tarling not here it’s hard to see where the challenge to the GC guys will come from a TT engine.

 

[red_flanders]

Just can't see him getting a minute on the mutants during the Tour. No yellow tomorrow IMO.

Opportunity missed on the first stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Just can't see him getting a minute on the mutants during the Tour. No yellow tomorrow IMO.

Opportunity missed on the first stage.

Opportunity missed last year when Pogacar wanted to give it away for a day and Evenepoel didn't want it either.

 

[ontheroad]

Remco looks nailed on to win this. I think Pog and JV will be within 30-40 seconds.

Not too sure about Vingegaard beating Pogacar as most here seem to be predicting. Likely based off the Dauphine but I wouldn’t read too much into that. Pogacar is the bigger rider and this parcours should suit him plus he will have the advantage of chasing him down. I’ll go 1) Remco 2) Pog 3) Vingo

 

[Cycling111]

Here they say that Wellens made a mistake by not being the first on one of the climbs.

They attach great importance to the jersey.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942687294080618584

View: https://x.com/bvdecape/status/1942687294080618584

 

[peterfin]

Althoug we have little data, Pogacar is clearly significantly better in flat GT ITTs compared to flat ITTs outside GTs. He lost 29 sec to Ganna in the 31 km 2024 Giro stage 14 ITT and 59 sec to Van Aert in the 25 km 2021 TdF stage 20 ITT. In the only 3 other flat TTs with similar competition (2x WC and 1x EC) he did much worse losing about 1m30 to 2m corrected for a 33 km distance. So assuming his 2024 performance is closer to his current capabilities, 30 sec behind Remco looks like a normal result within expectations.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Pogacar realizing realizing he's chasing TWO Visma riders...

 

[Didinho]

Visma can use Jorgenson as a tow for Vingo. Go easier in the first part so Vingo gets within 20” behind the other team car and then let Matteo go all in at Vingo’s pace so he can stay close/in to the slipstream untill the end.

But I guess they want Jorgenson as high up in GC as long as possible.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Visma can use Jorgenson as a tow for Vingo. Go easier in the first part so Vingo gets within 20” behind the other team car and then let Matteo go all in at Vingo’s pace so he can stay close/in to the slipstream untill the end.

But I guess they want Jorgenson as high up in GC as long as possible.

Couldn’t they get in trouble for that?

 

[elguapo]

The way they are riding in the last four days, the killer bees may be slowly depleting their ketone reserve and eventually, Pogi may have the last laugh.

 

[scribers]

Yellow for Vingo after tomorrow would be ideal

 

[scribers]

Here they say that Wellens made a mistake by not being the first on one of the climbs.

They attach great importance to the jersey.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1942687294080618584

View: https://x.com/bvdecape/status/1942687294080618584

There had to be a sacrifice. Wellens did a very nice pull at the front that a dig for the point would have likely neutralized. The race won’t be won or lost tomorrow (I hope). The race begins earnestly in the mountains

 

[jono]

If UAE were truly worried about Pogacar having to do the TT in a non-team jersey, they shouldn't have raced for the stage today, as he very nearly could have been racing in yellow.

 

[veganrob]

I would like to see a monster ITT from Remco. Upend the cart a little bit.

 

[Rob5091]

Pogi, "the race of truth" , yep. No hiding here.

 

[yaco]

I expect Plapp to do a good ITT. He's deliberately been riding at the back of the peleton saving energy. Expect a top 5 if not a podium.

 

[pelotonIQ]

I have a gut feeling that Vingegaard wins tomorrow's TT.

 

[Berniece]

Althoug we have little data, Pogacar is clearly significantly better in flat GT ITTs compared to flat ITTs outside GTs. He lost 29 sec to Ganna in the 31 km 2024 Giro stage 14 ITT and 59 sec to Van Aert in the 25 km 2021 TdF stage 20 ITT. In the only 3 other flat TTs with similar competition (2x WC and 1x EC) he did much worse losing about 1m30 to 2m corrected for a 33 km distance. So assuming his 2024 performance is closer to his current capabilities, 30 sec behind Remco looks like a normal result within expectations.

Since when is Ganna at the same level of Evenepoel again?

 

[houtdffan]

I have a gut feeling that Vingegaard wins tomorrow's TT.

Vingo will be fortunate to remain ahead of Remco after tomorrow

This is a guy who eats Ganna for breakfast in the TT. Vingo is never competing with Ganna in a flat ITT, much less Remco

 

[benzwire]

Maybe a silly question, but in cases where Pogi or anyone else has to wear a classification skinsuit (yellow, mtn jersey, etc.), do you guys think having different padding (chamois) in the skinsuit affects the riders' efforts? I know that I have several different brands of bibs and I certainly favor some over others. I know some skinsuits can be faster based on specific tailoring to the individual, but I wonder is simple comfort can be affected and result in a difference of a few seconds or more?

 

[scribers]

The move crew says it can be mental too. Just not comfortable etc

 

[Cookster15]

Visma can use Jorgenson as a tow for Vingo. Go easier in the first part so Vingo gets within 20” behind the other team car and then let Matteo go all in at Vingo’s pace so he can stay close/in to the slipstream untill the end.

But I guess they want Jorgenson as high up in GC as long as possible.

Good theory but I think 20" behind would be too far back to get any significant drafting effect?

At 50km/h 20" is a gap of 270 metres. Even at only 40km/h 20 seconds works out to a gap of 220 metres.

 

[hfer07]

I foresee some ET/Thermonuclear performance by Poga......

 

[AmRacer]

I foresee some ET/Thermonuclear performance by Poga......

Only losing 5 sec to Remco?

 

[hfgon1]

Excited for this stage. I'm pretty sure that Remco will win today easily. Behind it's Pogacar versus Vingegaard. I think Vingegaard is the better time trialist in hilly sections. That were the time trials where he gained time but today is completely flat. I think that a flat time trial pretty much equals them and I dont expect someone to be more than 20 seconds ahead of the other.